tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5329021848940962582024-03-05T18:52:55.239-08:00Apocalypse 4 RealCommentary on Climate Change and Green House GasesUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger98125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-77276534795172983872019-07-08T16:14:00.000-07:002019-07-08T16:14:31.030-07:00NOAA ESRL Global April, 2019 CO2 Above 411 ppm<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">NOAA ESRL just published its April, 2019 preliminary global CO2 mean of 411.50 ppm, an increase of 2.65 ppm over April, 2018. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz2T2IJIEMLPTtCr6Q3SBkdKbE1GHRL1Wf4LENLQY62KhPworfU_vV-EnLgzbcYJWU0U1Nt9OrCY4YslgWoak_OMR6uKSRGjbUXUzwwpaq4bHyOT7o9bC4G5pGcUQsZUlI0A-qavRoSqHH/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Recent+Global+Trend+04+2019.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="589" data-original-width="1101" height="342" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz2T2IJIEMLPTtCr6Q3SBkdKbE1GHRL1Wf4LENLQY62KhPworfU_vV-EnLgzbcYJWU0U1Nt9OrCY4YslgWoak_OMR6uKSRGjbUXUzwwpaq4bHyOT7o9bC4G5pGcUQsZUlI0A-qavRoSqHH/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Recent+Global+Trend+04+2019.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">This is the 17th month in a row with above a 2 ppm increase. The change over five years is 13.1 ppm, a new record for any five year period. The 10 year change from April, 2009 is 23.74 ppm, the highest 10 year rate of change.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaFFM7WytQ99_NgxYMq9yuoV9u-bwzL31sUlNJub5AW1tBqK_TVFMw2dukli5AAXANLoqZNaTqQjCM-twqIN2hYvpFNdGjgAtlqyj-c6fwVN1sJhWxjm2nIYvWOUGoS3LWSNMPt7FtsFs7/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+1%252C+5+10+Year+Trends+04+2019+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="863" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaFFM7WytQ99_NgxYMq9yuoV9u-bwzL31sUlNJub5AW1tBqK_TVFMw2dukli5AAXANLoqZNaTqQjCM-twqIN2hYvpFNdGjgAtlqyj-c6fwVN1sJhWxjm2nIYvWOUGoS3LWSNMPt7FtsFs7/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+1%252C+5+10+Year+Trends+04+2019+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">When we compare to longer time frames, g</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">lobal CO2 has increased:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Since 1980 </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">(339.87 ppm)</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">: 21.08% - NOAA ESRL global CO2</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Since 1958 </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">(315.97 ppm)</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">: 30.28% - Keeling MLO</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Since 1880 </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">(287.77 ppm)</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">: 43.00% - EPICA 2015 Ice Core</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Since 1750 </span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">(277.60 ppm)</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">: 48.23% - EPICA 2015 Ice Core</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Since 22964 BCE (</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">180.57 ppm LGM</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">): 127.89% - EPICA 2015 Ice Core</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Using the EPICA 2015 revised ice core data, global CO2 has increased 230.93 ppm since the last glacial CO2 ppm low. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPvpF73ZNxq7UkNY_P9XZqvOzApoqs8yqxn_3QsuHQ_o6QuHXfYWJJ-8XklSOikJRtTatwTH-F90wbx8Yd4F0YzOQ30mCQMLxxjxbr5sOz0dxBeKgwHyDpfBd3pIGyap4-EN8-3pZYzLmd/s1600/NCDC+EPICA+2015+Rev%252C+NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+to+April+2019+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="649" data-original-width="1031" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPvpF73ZNxq7UkNY_P9XZqvOzApoqs8yqxn_3QsuHQ_o6QuHXfYWJJ-8XklSOikJRtTatwTH-F90wbx8Yd4F0YzOQ30mCQMLxxjxbr5sOz0dxBeKgwHyDpfBd3pIGyap4-EN8-3pZYzLmd/s640/NCDC+EPICA+2015+Rev%252C+NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+to+April+2019+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">I</span><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">t only took a 100 ppm increase to move from the last glacial maximum temperatures (an approximate -9C anomaly) to our pre-industrial 1750 or 1880 climate. Since then we have added an additional 130 ppm of CO2.... </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The temperature and climate disruption impacts from this increase have not yet been fully experienced, we have only started transient climate warming. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">We have just started a global flame-thrower.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-15012444658602968532019-05-12T15:01:00.001-07:002019-05-12T15:01:20.741-07:00Global CO2 Passes 410 ppm in February 2019<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">On May 6th, NOAA ESRL reported that our world reached a global atmospheric CO2 concentration over 410 ppmv. This is not the Mauna Loa mean, which often substitutes for the actual global indicator, but the preliminary result of the Global Greenhouse Gas Network, and reflects the real mean of the world-wide reporting network.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5AYN3aUzdn68ACVTnUf8fEls-dz2h3xC55ZV968KRnN06FHlXsigOr9IPBGuros-ZCwouon4K7nbDNRDhc-WzVppxR9L5Aiqj8QaoIAKLwhlRFW5UPhS-2s3Q8vbvK7eI6eKWU0Vc5JE7/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Recent+Global+Trend+February+2019.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="740" height="582" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5AYN3aUzdn68ACVTnUf8fEls-dz2h3xC55ZV968KRnN06FHlXsigOr9IPBGuros-ZCwouon4K7nbDNRDhc-WzVppxR9L5Aiqj8QaoIAKLwhlRFW5UPhS-2s3Q8vbvK7eI6eKWU0Vc5JE7/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Recent+Global+Trend+February+2019.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The longer NOAA ESRL trend demonstrates the accelerating achievement of each new 10 ppm increase. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9wqWU3cBzeH3f0oJI4dn1NbxKYquekdf3Z1JusiH3_Pe_bJvD7ePqW9MI89OLnBkpOobRhapykQz0l5YwTFklAmZ8Ml7WD5Hu_72nPsOP6JlpEcwYkJTOsDlLtGnkHOab86N3i38xtrxd/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+February+2019+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="857" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9wqWU3cBzeH3f0oJI4dn1NbxKYquekdf3Z1JusiH3_Pe_bJvD7ePqW9MI89OLnBkpOobRhapykQz0l5YwTFklAmZ8Ml7WD5Hu_72nPsOP6JlpEcwYkJTOsDlLtGnkHOab86N3i38xtrxd/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+February+2019+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">If this 410 ppm mean holds through future updates, we will have increased the global CO2 concentration by 10 ppm in 47 months - less than four years. More on that sobering significance later.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Compared to 2018, global CO2 increased by 2.64 ppm, partially due to increased emissions, and perhaps influenced by the mild El Nino or other feedbacks. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Furthermore, we have increased CO2 by 12.85 ppm in the last five years. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Over the last 10 years, comparing February 2019 to 2009, the carbon dioxide concentration has increased 23.35 ppm, a new record acceleration - not just for the last 10 years - but the last 800,000 years. </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms", sans-serif;">It has never happened before in human history or the natural environment. This is not normal.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3LnXEnqs0qTlYLh4zr3yHvBar_fKld3qlEtMoIxkpqwCAC0H4J-HbPF8ZeZkqaDk0X2vTVBLxYgQOF04Hfq7pCqQ6MRnJgCzJqvtFiJqxonLeNf_V7dNbcOWnw-XFWy6tOkcoAvHEmGo4/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+1%252C+5+10+Year+Trends+February+2019+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="857" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3LnXEnqs0qTlYLh4zr3yHvBar_fKld3qlEtMoIxkpqwCAC0H4J-HbPF8ZeZkqaDk0X2vTVBLxYgQOF04Hfq7pCqQ6MRnJgCzJqvtFiJqxonLeNf_V7dNbcOWnw-XFWy6tOkcoAvHEmGo4/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+1%252C+5+10+Year+Trends+February+2019+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">It is deeply troubling that we have increased our global CO2 concentration by 70 ppm in 39 years. How troubling becomes obvious as we review the trend. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms", sans-serif;">Here is how long it has taken us to reach each 10 ppm milestone in the NOAA ESRL data. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">In May, 1960 we hit 320 ppm as a monthly mean for the first time at Mauna Loa (MLO). Here is how many months/years it took to reach each 10 ppm increase after that date. In the table (Glbl) is the NOAA ESRL Global Greenhouse Gas Network monthly mean.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>Site CO2 ppm Date Months Years</b></span><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 330px;">
<colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2596; mso-width-source: userset; width: 53pt;" width="71"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2267; mso-width-source: userset; width: 47pt;" width="62"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2523; mso-width-source: userset; width: 52pt;" width="69"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-family: inherit;">MLO</span></td>
<td style="width: 53pt;" width="71"><span style="font-family: inherit;">320 ppm</span></td>
<td class="xl68" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-family: inherit;">May-60</span></td>
<td align="right" style="width: 47pt;" width="62"></td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="width: 52pt;" width="69"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">MLO</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: inherit;">330 ppm</span></td>
<td class="xl68"><span style="font-family: inherit;">May-72</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> 144</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: inherit;">12.00</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Glbl</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: inherit;">340 ppm</span></td>
<td class="xl68"><span style="font-family: inherit;">May-80 </span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> 96</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: inherit;">8.00</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Glbl</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: inherit;">350 ppm</span></td>
<td class="xl68"><span style="font-family: inherit;">May-87</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> 84</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: inherit;">7.00</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Glbl</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: inherit;">360 ppm</span></td>
<td class="xl68"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Jan-95</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> 92</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: inherit;">7.67</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Glbl</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: inherit;">370 ppm</span></td>
<td class="xl68"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Apr-00</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> 63</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: inherit;">5.25</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Glbl</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: inherit;">380 ppm</span></td>
<td class="xl68"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Apr-05</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> 60</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: inherit;">5.00</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Glbl</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: inherit;">390 ppm</span></td>
<td class="xl68"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Dec-10</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> 68</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: inherit;">5.67</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Glbl</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: inherit;">400 ppm</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Mar-2015</span></td><td class="xl66"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> 51</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: inherit;">4.25</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Glbl</span></td>
<td><span style="font-family: inherit;">410 ppm</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Feb-2019</span></td><td class="xl66"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> 47</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-family: inherit;">3.92</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Here is the graphic, which depicts how quickly we are increasing the concentration rate in 10 ppm increments:</span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9PCVlYCFfZe_31ANFEmgqjhKjj1Dd5hXP7JmdtCafiSrOfGGLt4NDm6P3h1ZKVoAfJwN4H2x6jLZHAnfzEr3p4gUE44dKqIRPCjmQi4M64qUYE6Uo2GuOJh6CQFsGA4ma_4PLcW85HmKo/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+GLobal+CO2+10+ppm+Changes+February+2019+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="857" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9PCVlYCFfZe_31ANFEmgqjhKjj1Dd5hXP7JmdtCafiSrOfGGLt4NDm6P3h1ZKVoAfJwN4H2x6jLZHAnfzEr3p4gUE44dKqIRPCjmQi4M64qUYE6Uo2GuOJh6CQFsGA4ma_4PLcW85HmKo/s640/NOAA+ESRL+GLobal+CO2+10+ppm+Changes+February+2019+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">This slash in the rate increase is gut wrenching - a bad roller coaster going only one direction. It is worse than it looks when we add in the ice core data. That helps us have a full picture of the global CO2 rate of change through millennia. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">The ice core data used here is from the EPA, Vostock, EPICA and Law Dome records found at: </span><a href="https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-atmospheric-concentrations-greenhouse-gases" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-atmospheric-concentrations-greenhouse-gases</a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Let's just examine the last interglacial cycle from 15615 BCE (the last time we were approximately at 190 ppm (and in an ice age), to the present 410 ppm. The graphic below depicts how many years it took to add the next 10 ppm to the global CO2 concentration. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">For example, to increase from 190 ppm in 15615 BCE to 200 ppm it took 896 years, till 14709 BCE. It took 586 years to reach 210 ppm, and another 503 to reach 220 ppm. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">There is significant variability after this point. It took 5,923 years increase from 250-260 ppm, and 4,204 years to increase from 270-280 ppm. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">However </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">in 1780, when </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">we reached 280 ppm, it was the beginning of the Industrial Revolution - the human use of fossil fuels. It took till 1880, just 100 years, to reach 290 ppm. Humans then</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"> turbo-charged 10 ppm increases from millennia</span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"> to decades and less - in less than a century. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">What we have done in the last 60 years practically causes heart palpitations when you think of the coming changes this CO2 increase will cause to the environment - and for human civilization.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGqNIdcP_iTmLNAlHzEnAmblI1aToO_baziTEdeV12qDWZe6XCnVwoVOhyphenhyphenDTUuCQsUu3N__9TQqQ23HSsvsapxUmCS4Ay6fJVKChYakf-TyritItZZxKWYli4ZgMOVo3idoz89IDGfgpe1/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+EPA+Global+CO2+by+10+ppm+Rate+of+Changes++15615+BCE+to+2019+CE+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="863" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGqNIdcP_iTmLNAlHzEnAmblI1aToO_baziTEdeV12qDWZe6XCnVwoVOhyphenhyphenDTUuCQsUu3N__9TQqQ23HSsvsapxUmCS4Ay6fJVKChYakf-TyritItZZxKWYli4ZgMOVo3idoz89IDGfgpe1/s640/NOAA+ESRL+EPA+Global+CO2+by+10+ppm+Rate+of+Changes++15615+BCE+to+2019+CE+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Ponder this. The 3.9 years to go from 400 to 410 ppm is .00065 of the 5,923 years it took to go from 250 to 260 ppm. Or .00093 of the 4,204 years to go from 270-280 ppm. if it makes one feel better, It is 3.9 percent of the time to go from 280 to 290 ppm, from 1780 to 1880.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">There is another traumatic perspective of we have inflicted on the global climate system and humanity - the </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">adding of 70 ppm CO2 i</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">n the last 39 years. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Let's compare that increase, from 340 to 410 ppm, to every other 70 ppm change since the past ice age, in increments of 10 ppm. In other words, how many years did it take for the same 70 ppm change, for example, from 190 to 260 ppm? At 190 ppm we were in an ice age and at 260 - we were not. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Here is every 70 ppm change in 10 ppm incremental steps. It is obvious that human generated CO2 emissions are short circuiting natural processes. </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK8QsJ5POm6YNV8sLB_NcKDzqrnD1r4uwoREe31JXOOlfF8MSpviayaU7WlnmhmHuIZ8fc8HKxO0EW7aE9CR0Mhs5EUYU0V_l8RKFcMsBiiN9yfMJZg7JK5fW7ACV2C8iHaxNLHYrkZdYq/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+EPA+Global+CO2+70+ppm+Rate+of+Change+190-260+to+340-410+ppm+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="863" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK8QsJ5POm6YNV8sLB_NcKDzqrnD1r4uwoREe31JXOOlfF8MSpviayaU7WlnmhmHuIZ8fc8HKxO0EW7aE9CR0Mhs5EUYU0V_l8RKFcMsBiiN9yfMJZg7JK5fW7ACV2C8iHaxNLHYrkZdYq/s640/NOAA+ESRL+EPA+Global+CO2+70+ppm+Rate+of+Change+190-260+to+340-410+ppm+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">In conclusion, here are three things to ponder from the above graph.</span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">The change from 210 to 280 ppm (emerging from the last ice age to beginning of the Industrial Revolution) took 15,900 years.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The change from 280 ppm to 350 ppm (reached in 1987, when the international community and energy industry unequivocally knew that emissions were going to cause a problem for human society) took only 202 years.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The last 60 ppm increase (350 to 410 ppm) has only taken 32 years. This has never happened in 800,000 years. In fact, in the ice core data there is no record of a 10 ppm increase in 39 years - until human emissions impacts in the 1900's.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Global CO2 concentrations have never increased by 10 ppm in 47 months. There is no comparison in 800,000 years of ice core data. Nothing in paleo-climate proxies. Only in models with polynomial, or exponential, curves.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">We are in uncharted "terror incognita" (pun intended).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Imagine what the next increment looks like. Imagine if we do not accelerate efforts to quickly drop emissions. </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">ACDC comes to mind....</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span jsname="YS01Ge" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">"No stop signs, speed limit</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span jsname="YS01Ge" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">Nobody's gonna slow me down...." </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span jsname="YS01Ge" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span jsname="YS01Ge" style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">We're on a Highway to Hell.</span></span></div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-58407714729145696812019-03-09T16:01:00.000-08:002019-03-09T16:01:08.664-08:00Global CH4 up 8.4 ppb in November 2018<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">According to the NOAA ESRL latest monthly data release, November, 2018 saw the planet experience a global methane mean of 1867.2 ppb, an increase of 8.4 ppb over 2017.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUUOd4zjZ1HY3ZMJQ7mzuFSsAcH0NIYC8y5BwZcGBLAAYxrI8APuHkLRP81AiiecGVeKmglyhtjLjq2twa_L20rMUQKCcvErZ-V64ZqIDb0p4p1fEpgkiMVFbrNdPRnNjwWuKEoPV9efQo/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+Monthly+Trend+2015-November+2018.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1382" data-original-width="1600" height="552" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUUOd4zjZ1HY3ZMJQ7mzuFSsAcH0NIYC8y5BwZcGBLAAYxrI8APuHkLRP81AiiecGVeKmglyhtjLjq2twa_L20rMUQKCcvErZ-V64ZqIDb0p4p1fEpgkiMVFbrNdPRnNjwWuKEoPV9efQo/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+Monthly+Trend+2015-November+2018.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">During the past five years we have experienced an increase of 46.8 ppb, and in the last 10 years, a 69.8 ppb increase.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8UzQz3mFUh7VEHksq1bqS5FoWQYgCdt5MaIyOKrQCJoXIfdB3zsmvx0RQ5bC1HbV5DUkZYSbjbf8gbjxd_X9dZLhlg7iemTaHfj1ehxvH0JcOpWz9ah6P6zf-WAtrbGu7py_N7-9rMxBI/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+1+5+10+Yr+Anom+A4R+Data+1983-November+2018.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1009" data-original-width="1600" height="402" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8UzQz3mFUh7VEHksq1bqS5FoWQYgCdt5MaIyOKrQCJoXIfdB3zsmvx0RQ5bC1HbV5DUkZYSbjbf8gbjxd_X9dZLhlg7iemTaHfj1ehxvH0JcOpWz9ah6P6zf-WAtrbGu7py_N7-9rMxBI/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+1+5+10+Yr+Anom+A4R+Data+1983-November+2018.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">As recently reported, the science community is still determining the mix of sources driving this increase since 2007, and the acceleration since 2014. What has been proposed are changes in biological sources such as emissions from cattle, a drop in hydroxyls in the atmosphere which impact the length of time before methane breaks down, or agricultural production that is increasing methane emissions, particularly from rice production. A final source suggested is an increase in methane released by new natural gas and oil production. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Of significant concern is that natural feedbacks may begin or increase. If this occurs - despite cuts in human emissions - natural sources will offset our cuts and lead to future climate change.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-83871180917617881312019-03-09T11:03:00.002-08:002019-03-09T11:03:51.713-08:00Global CO2 December 2018 - On Track for 410+ ppm in March/April 2019<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Global CO2: December 2018</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">In </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">December, 2018,</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"> NOAA/ESRL reported global carbon dioxide at 409.36 ppm, or 2.83 ppm above December, 2017. That annual change was the highest since those associated with the 2015-2016 El Nino, when the world experienced increases above 3 ppm for 12 consecutive months. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOz7dtbSC_6o6mtpcayFCY7lR_WVPoglCSuvjG4pEz9ePf4Y3mTQE5DNgpJl20t9Ll_6qhgrc4xe2RxUdmYmg3sM8q-QDqvEuAXz9cMP1JXJ6pm45t1MDmRAkYhM5L9bskpzqEmJmm6cdb/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+5+Yr+Trend+December+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1454" data-original-width="1600" height="580" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOz7dtbSC_6o6mtpcayFCY7lR_WVPoglCSuvjG4pEz9ePf4Y3mTQE5DNgpJl20t9Ll_6qhgrc4xe2RxUdmYmg3sM8q-QDqvEuAXz9cMP1JXJ6pm45t1MDmRAkYhM5L9bskpzqEmJmm6cdb/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+5+Yr+Trend+December+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA/ESRL</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">This month continues the unbroken </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">CO2 concentration </span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">rise observed at Mauna Loa </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">since 1959, </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">then globally since 1980.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5Jj-ePkMsMWIK6cqSP-5Eq1VyGY2SXG1oZ-ltdnHe5HFQ8iUqtJhKKpFCTbI4mb3EjpIMuw8GUHcAGEurU9qm086Oge5lgTSgHd4p8OL6VKuQ1o-zEo2H2lFMVp7ki-jktOnCpjaJTeC7/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+December+2018+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="980" data-original-width="1600" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5Jj-ePkMsMWIK6cqSP-5Eq1VyGY2SXG1oZ-ltdnHe5HFQ8iUqtJhKKpFCTbI4mb3EjpIMuw8GUHcAGEurU9qm086Oge5lgTSgHd4p8OL6VKuQ1o-zEo2H2lFMVp7ki-jktOnCpjaJTeC7/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+December+2018+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Five and Ten Year Increases</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">When December, 2018 is compared to 2013, global carbon dioxide has increased 12.71 ppm, the highest five year change since July, 2017 when we experienced a five year increase of 13.09 ppm. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The last three months have experienced a decadal change above 23 ppm, with December having the highest at 23.32 ppm. The five and ten year rates continue trends which reflect ever increasing global emissions at increasing rates of change.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioSP5dEhZ_BA2YK48a51G9ngEwdwFw3AoY6EINtjnkPwMTwrONUrXtO7V94wSsTCcx2O8iPjtNMNMWH133_5jDSfn_9qONeDZ_rDuOUslY6rdTNJQg3KsIMUnF5tp1RguooUFaTR5JIfjm/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+1%252C+5+10+Year+Trends+December+2018+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="929" data-original-width="1600" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioSP5dEhZ_BA2YK48a51G9ngEwdwFw3AoY6EINtjnkPwMTwrONUrXtO7V94wSsTCcx2O8iPjtNMNMWH133_5jDSfn_9qONeDZ_rDuOUslY6rdTNJQg3KsIMUnF5tp1RguooUFaTR5JIfjm/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+1%252C+5+10+Year+Trends+December+2018+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Passing 410 ppm</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The world is on track to pass 410 ppm in 2019. It is possible this will be reached in February, quite probable in March, and almost certain in April, 2019. It is also probable that the global concentration will exceed 411 ppm in April or May 2019, given historical changes of 2+ ppm between December and April/May in recent previous years.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Quicker Milestones</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Of greater concern is reaching 10 ppm increases in shorter times. If we pass 410 ppm in March, 2019, it will be only 48 months after passing 400 ppm in March, 2015. To increase from 320 to 330 ppm took 12 years (May 1960 to May 1972). We are now blowing through these 10 ppm milestones in 1/3 the time. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAUEcPTkfe7H_L67bOAnSol1qOByBniIwzkSKH0aSNKWC4WqbECzBWoyucHPadGx1o6hshkZlkDcTWL59A8fM7Qgf-m677n_m-kea7bGMSwrAMF5LVTA9r7NwdAth0Ps63NDspXEM50TGX/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+5+ppm+Changes+March+2019+410+ppm+Est+December+2018.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="955" data-original-width="1600" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAUEcPTkfe7H_L67bOAnSol1qOByBniIwzkSKH0aSNKWC4WqbECzBWoyucHPadGx1o6hshkZlkDcTWL59A8fM7Qgf-m677n_m-kea7bGMSwrAMF5LVTA9r7NwdAth0Ps63NDspXEM50TGX/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+5+ppm+Changes+March+2019+410+ppm+Est+December+2018.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFXX3UgKVvL3hzNkZoTvHDYl_99mrJOygGQ-bBaue7tJjSQOqGUUVyA1C9XHv7RJQcaMNqHgQNwEXy06YevPNKD_R7CK5O9hORLg_9IR-CgR3s-1HFFK9w74unED75d0ZNSqOSSmTQQSSG/s1600/Global+CO2+10+ppm+changes+1960-2019.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="711" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFXX3UgKVvL3hzNkZoTvHDYl_99mrJOygGQ-bBaue7tJjSQOqGUUVyA1C9XHv7RJQcaMNqHgQNwEXy06YevPNKD_R7CK5O9hORLg_9IR-CgR3s-1HFFK9w74unED75d0ZNSqOSSmTQQSSG/s320/Global+CO2+10+ppm+changes+1960-2019.PNG" width="290" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>The Future Trend?</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">If we stabilize carbon dioxide concentration increases for each future 10 ppm </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">at 48 months</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">, the planet will experience a doubling of CO2 compared to pre-industrial by 2080 and over 610 ppm by 2100. However, given that emissions are not slowing, combined with potential environmental system feedbacks, we may reach 560 ppm sooner, with less ability to influence the trend with decreasing emissions. More on this in another post.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-24510640136378743662018-07-21T16:44:00.000-07:002018-07-21T16:44:30.199-07:00A World of Fire and Smoke - A July 20 2018 Snapshot<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Over the past few weeks US news has covered fires in the West; in California, Nevada, Oregon, New Mexico and Arizona They have burned millions of acres of forests, grassland, grazing land and most sadly, wheat crops ready for harvest in Oregon. Some fires are still burning and threaten homes, towns and livelihoods. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Sources: </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Nevada fires: <a href="https://elkodaily.com/news/local/it-s-gone-it-s-gone-nation-s-largest-wildfire/article_baba42b7-ce69-560e-b9e3-90ac7f3a6052.html">https://elkodaily.com/news/local/it-s-gone-it-s-gone-nation-s-largest-wildfire/article_baba42b7-ce69-560e-b9e3-90ac7f3a6052.html</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Oregon fires: <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/oregon-wheat-farmers-try-to-stop-fire-thats-consuming-crops-ap_national1c60c565124248da961102bb75a75149">http://www.tampabay.com/oregon-wheat-farmers-try-to-stop-fire-thats-consuming-crops-ap_national1c60c565124248da961102bb75a75149</a></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Here is a snapshot of US and Canadian fires and smoke from the NOAA EOSDIS Worldview for July 20th. </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">A click on the image or a visit to NOAA EOSDIS Worldview reveals the US and Canadian fires as red dots in the VIIRS imagery. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-f6_02qaAz81hG5SDzsoUY9sCD-yuRJc6L8P0uzrTATrIKsRfA1pr77RDzlF9GbN-ZLG_XtK_CbiWoIG1DyvNk4NYVu89UwALpPN_jSEtqxmnaBt49xqK_n810ilDeJSehrnazvt5UxUn/s1600/EOSDIS+Worldview+US+and+Canada+200+mi+July+20+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="666" data-original-width="1600" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-f6_02qaAz81hG5SDzsoUY9sCD-yuRJc6L8P0uzrTATrIKsRfA1pr77RDzlF9GbN-ZLG_XtK_CbiWoIG1DyvNk4NYVu89UwALpPN_jSEtqxmnaBt49xqK_n810ilDeJSehrnazvt5UxUn/s640/EOSDIS+Worldview+US+and+Canada+200+mi+July+20+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: <a href="https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Features,MOPITT_CO_Daily_Total_Column_L2(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Fires_375m_Night,VIIRS_SNPP_Fires_375m_Day&t=2018-07-20-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-130.6479735381917,21.52998176747436,-63.14797353819172,54.82295051747436">https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Features,MOPITT_CO_Daily_Total_Column_L2(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Fires_375m_Night,VIIRS_SNPP_Fires_375m_Day&t=2018-07-20-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-130.6479735381917,21.52998176747436,-63.14797353819172,54.82295051747436</a></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Here are a couple of closer views:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>The Western US</b></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifOrb00ff-Js3HveXHZ3ss2ucqoJQmZkKluFhxBDJ2lgyAd4mDAab2mgZbEQOQuMGnYzRlkzfwYsMWNb570UrPlqiWAq9XtXfT8q67pv-FckKWJe2scjMEBpuwcPgcrS0gRpfOutVXxUJ0/s1600/EOSDIS+Western+US+Fires+July+20+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1577" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifOrb00ff-Js3HveXHZ3ss2ucqoJQmZkKluFhxBDJ2lgyAd4mDAab2mgZbEQOQuMGnYzRlkzfwYsMWNb570UrPlqiWAq9XtXfT8q67pv-FckKWJe2scjMEBpuwcPgcrS0gRpfOutVXxUJ0/s640/EOSDIS+Western+US+Fires+July+20+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Source</span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">: NOAA EOSDIS Worldview, </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">July 20, 2018</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Eastern Canada</b></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzY7HNNGaDTASE76ubJk3wDaN4slUyFWBSHkzR8KK-EN2h3iIu4KENtP1nt4PHE_x4Vvsn5g2QE9nwlVNeDbXpBfc3gcJqnPoZAKWGyA6omROiv6jw95-WJxgB3OVJISXRPuZPRy-j-oLm/s1600/EOSDIS+Canadian+FIres+July+20+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="787" data-original-width="1537" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzY7HNNGaDTASE76ubJk3wDaN4slUyFWBSHkzR8KK-EN2h3iIu4KENtP1nt4PHE_x4Vvsn5g2QE9nwlVNeDbXpBfc3gcJqnPoZAKWGyA6omROiv6jw95-WJxgB3OVJISXRPuZPRy-j-oLm/s640/EOSDIS+Canadian+FIres+July+20+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Source</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">: NOAA EOSDIS Worldview, </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">July 20, 2018</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">But how does this compare to the rest of the world?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The media has reported on fires in Sweden and Finland over the last few days, with as many as 60 forest fires burning in Sweden and dozens in Finland. What has not been reported are the Russian fires burning in the Kola Peninsula and Western Russia, many well above the Arctic Circle.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: <a href="https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/borders/2018/07/forest-fire-spreads-across-border-russia-lapland">https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/borders/2018/07/forest-fire-spreads-across-border-russia-lapland</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Scandinavian and Kola Peninsula Russian fires:</b></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjacKD6TLEEGd_gNG41zmoc7iRNbvEYY1iamiAe-ll1ihbxGdv9PPHo4hjvxhFVZht8rX9Wa3pIUwP1v3unl6ulDj_Rxur9EQJaGslSglPs-86lVHPOKUiHOMZ26XlYuqb7UXy9of4MXbNr/s1600/EOSIDIS+Scandanavian+Fires+July+20+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1530" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjacKD6TLEEGd_gNG41zmoc7iRNbvEYY1iamiAe-ll1ihbxGdv9PPHo4hjvxhFVZht8rX9Wa3pIUwP1v3unl6ulDj_Rxur9EQJaGslSglPs-86lVHPOKUiHOMZ26XlYuqb7UXy9of4MXbNr/s640/EOSIDIS+Scandanavian+Fires+July+20+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Source</span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">: NOAA EOSDIS Worldview, </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">July 20, 2018</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">So what else is not being reported? </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Indonesia: </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Fires are burning in Indonesia and Australia, with the Indonesian fires potentially signalling a return of deforestation for more palm oil plantations. These fires cause smoke and haze to cover Malaysia and cause significant health hazards. Australia's fires may relate to drought conditions in its north.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBRtFxbrDKBPexwQeJTc4VM9mpRut-7HmY4gzpEHgsZPnyLtf2ukMRjNJVyOb2mQop5V0zI8fWRcr7nGPOkpxh9Hhf_U3_cvj2oxuEIZaV7CBNUfGwaQux_5zxWHjkMmpJSvEo0wESg_Sk/s1600/EOSDIS+Worldview+Indonesia+Australia+200+mi+July+20+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="1600" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBRtFxbrDKBPexwQeJTc4VM9mpRut-7HmY4gzpEHgsZPnyLtf2ukMRjNJVyOb2mQop5V0zI8fWRcr7nGPOkpxh9Hhf_U3_cvj2oxuEIZaV7CBNUfGwaQux_5zxWHjkMmpJSvEo0wESg_Sk/s640/EOSDIS+Worldview+Indonesia+Australia+200+mi+July+20+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Source</span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">: NOAA EOSDIS Worldview, July 20, 2018</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Brazil: </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Amazon rainforest and savannah fires are are creating ongoing loss of habitat and biodiversity as agricultural interests destroy significant swathes of rainforest and open savannah areas. Fires in eastern Brazil, and the loss of forest in these areas is bringing the country closer to a tipping point in which forest loss leads to irreversible change in its climate.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">As a recent Vox article reported, "<span style="background-color: white; text-decoration-line: inherit;">But in a dramatic turnaround, tree cover loss doubled there (Brazil) from 2015 to 2017. As the World Resource Institute’s Frances Seymour</span><span style="background-color: white; text-decoration-line: inherit;"> </span><a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2018/06/deforestation-accelerating-despite-mounting-efforts-protect-tropical-forests" style="border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; vertical-align: inherit;">writes</a><span style="background-color: white; text-decoration-line: inherit;">, this is “in part due to unprecedented forest fires in the Amazon ... [and] to a relaxation of law enforcement efforts in the midst of the country’s ongoing political turmoil and fiscal crisis.”</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; text-decoration-line: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<div id="FD5Ghu" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">"According to Carlos Nobre, a Brazilian scientist and expert on climate change, we’ve already deforested about 18 percent of the Amazon. Reaching 20 to 25 percent deforestation would cause the “system to flip to non-forest ecosystems in eastern, southern and central Amazonia,” he wrote with Thomas Lovejoy in a recent <a href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/2/eaat2340" style="background-color: transparent !important; border-bottom: 1px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; transition: color 0.1s, background-color 0.1s, fill 0.1s; vertical-align: inherit;">paper</a> in <em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">Science Advances."</em></span></div>
<div id="QIszHx" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">“We are very close to 20 percent,” he said Wednesday at the Oslo Tropical Forest Forum. “We need to stop completely Amazonian deforestation. We do not want the Amazon to become a global cattle ranch.”</span></div>
<div id="lOM0if" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.2rem; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: inherit; vertical-align: inherit;">
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">In most tropical regions, demand for soy, beef, palm oil, and other commodities — as well as fires — is driving the bulk of deforestation. In Brazil, which lost 11 million acres of forest cover in 2017, the main use for cleared land is cattle pasture."</span></div>
<div id="lOM0if" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.2rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: inherit;">
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; text-decoration-line: inherit;">Source: </span><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/27/17503466/trees-deforestation-tropical-forests-climate-change">https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/27/17503466/trees-deforestation-tropical-forests-climate-change</a></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOUBPVemk2RuapDD_KWoKqfaN7WDU8aIlgN9tKu1FopzFjPvObS6AlTQQFLblA1cEwJlDndCWlnwom-T9rPsw5cpNnbVWrofEcH2QUj_HkxQosfVp-paS4RaxBYtdAp8wNzI4r_SjD-U8R/s1600/EOSDIS+Worldview+Brazil+200+mi+July+20+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="1600" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOUBPVemk2RuapDD_KWoKqfaN7WDU8aIlgN9tKu1FopzFjPvObS6AlTQQFLblA1cEwJlDndCWlnwom-T9rPsw5cpNnbVWrofEcH2QUj_HkxQosfVp-paS4RaxBYtdAp8wNzI4r_SjD-U8R/s640/EOSDIS+Worldview+Brazil+200+mi+July+20+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The brown areas in eastern Brazil represent areas undergoing long term drought and change in temperature, that are shifting the climate as deforestation occurs. The SPEI Global Drought Index 48 month base displays the tragic truth.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh044O_dUpg0SZO_wjZGVvvnyUXjyF6wXFAzpFR_zPCAxJ1LAtdiSiqALAkgcZ82D1YLi0gl4SM8YYrOe4rYK0ialHzf1d34B1xi1klLg5dRp6eGnHobcxGa69_QFAC13UK3Vkjtb4DjtmG/s1600/Global+SPEI+Drought+Monitor+Brazil+48+months+June+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="726" data-original-width="1070" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh044O_dUpg0SZO_wjZGVvvnyUXjyF6wXFAzpFR_zPCAxJ1LAtdiSiqALAkgcZ82D1YLi0gl4SM8YYrOe4rYK0ialHzf1d34B1xi1klLg5dRp6eGnHobcxGa69_QFAC13UK3Vkjtb4DjtmG/s640/Global+SPEI+Drought+Monitor+Brazil+48+months+June+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: SPEI Global Drought Monitor <a href="http://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#months=7#month=5#year=2018">http://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#months=7#month=5#year=2018</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><b>Central Africa:</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Almost nothing is reported on African forest and savanna fire impact in the Western media. Much of the African forest fire activity is related to agricultural production. As Global Forest Watch reported, "<span style="background-color: white;">Tree cover loss in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) reached a record high in 2017, increasing 6 percent from 2016. Agriculture, artisanal logging and charcoal production drove the tree cover loss, with nearly 70 percent of it occurring in agricultural areas known as the rural complex." </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #555555; font-family: "Fira Sans", Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #555555; font-family: "Fira Sans", Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Source: </span><span style="color: #555555; font-family: Fira Sans, Georgia, serif;"><a href="https://blog.globalforestwatch.org/data/2017-was-the-second-worst-year-on-record-for-tropical-tree-cover-loss">https://blog.globalforestwatch.org/data/2017-was-the-second-worst-year-on-record-for-tropical-tree-cover-loss</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">However, like Brazil, if the global community does not work with central Africa, especially the Democratic Republic of the Congo, to slow charcoal fire use and deforestation, the world may lose another major carbon sink to becoming a carbon source.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpmMpPseca7VfXjtYTsaKpydXtNHjtH4fLp99Q2V2aakK_EsUUJ5Zbg6O3vSaU3a-wy_wxUcil5lU0iWw1elzT0rsb41zwy6gWfCJ-rAd-kP2jGX8tkHPQYDRm96MEoBz9XB5hKAou_Kma/s1600/EOSDIS+Worldview+Central+Africa+200+mi+July+20+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="672" data-original-width="1600" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpmMpPseca7VfXjtYTsaKpydXtNHjtH4fLp99Q2V2aakK_EsUUJ5Zbg6O3vSaU3a-wy_wxUcil5lU0iWw1elzT0rsb41zwy6gWfCJ-rAd-kP2jGX8tkHPQYDRm96MEoBz9XB5hKAou_Kma/s640/EOSDIS+Worldview+Central+Africa+200+mi+July+20+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Source</span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">: NOAA EOSDIS Worldview, July 20, 2018</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Central Russia and Siberia</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Massive and pervasive forest, peat and permafrost fires </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">have burned </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">in central and Siberian Russia since April. After initial reporting in April and May, the media in Russia went silent and Western media is not focused on the story, except when plumes of smoke cross the Arctic into Canada and then New England. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs6iXZ8bYF6BbTUYFJDwsu_XMXbezgELkFC-mBD81kWNwJOIO3Goj6OfkFeE__gntB89so_q4XtvsPZ_1dgqrdszFr9rOP7C76votyY09BuJmHXLmCAH_Jfd0b7E2Y0gpHtgVuKPfQMYOZ/s1600/EOSDIS+Worldview+July+20+2018+Central+and+Siberian+Russia+200+mi+July+20+2018+2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="1600" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs6iXZ8bYF6BbTUYFJDwsu_XMXbezgELkFC-mBD81kWNwJOIO3Goj6OfkFeE__gntB89so_q4XtvsPZ_1dgqrdszFr9rOP7C76votyY09BuJmHXLmCAH_Jfd0b7E2Y0gpHtgVuKPfQMYOZ/s640/EOSDIS+Worldview+July+20+2018+Central+and+Siberian+Russia+200+mi+July+20+2018+2.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Source</span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">: NOAA EOSDIS Worldview, July 20 2018</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">While the global community talks about deforestation in the tropics, deforestation by Russia deliberately not fighting these fires needs to be considered. However, it is so dry that it is almost impossible to do so on this large scale. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The SPEI Global Drought Monitor makes this dilemma apparent. </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Some portions of central and Siberian Russia have experienced comparative high heat and deep drought for the last four years. as part of a decline that began in 2010.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilm5_w9F2NcfnDjWuSJ1PvLPqmfKSv3Dq3_a5Uss9GEJCv-nuh9BboXGp6nXbqqYRLxVAEmwLbGC01ub9rUGYxqHB-YmiwTzYage01flIdiAgHOSkC-9G5BYeDlP9AVn3dPPwNFn7WEgXS/s1600/Global+SPEI+Drought+Monitor+June+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1072" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilm5_w9F2NcfnDjWuSJ1PvLPqmfKSv3Dq3_a5Uss9GEJCv-nuh9BboXGp6nXbqqYRLxVAEmwLbGC01ub9rUGYxqHB-YmiwTzYage01flIdiAgHOSkC-9G5BYeDlP9AVn3dPPwNFn7WEgXS/s640/Global+SPEI+Drought+Monitor+June+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: <a href="http://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#months=0#month=5#year=2018">http://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#months=0#month=5#year=2018</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">While these torched areas may grow back, in some areas it will take a century or more for full restoration. In some cases because of the scale of what is destroyed, the forest may not return. But me</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">gatons of soot, ash and carbon monoxide are being released by these fires at high concentrations. Carbon monoxide </span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">concentrations in some areas are above 4800 ppbv.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLfZkUyt89KtPH_mO1CthDByiCiGycd9lOEF6F-8d2TsqwDMx9_Z3_kYLIOm_naplOVJC36kg95dqZwx2TG4f5tiTPFAhHL21z6a9_FG12s8d7XoabPhNtXuyLBOgABIw2lyJb3rwglkv3/s1600/Siberia+CO+surface+Earth+Nullschool+July+21+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="1537" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLfZkUyt89KtPH_mO1CthDByiCiGycd9lOEF6F-8d2TsqwDMx9_Z3_kYLIOm_naplOVJC36kg95dqZwx2TG4f5tiTPFAhHL21z6a9_FG12s8d7XoabPhNtXuyLBOgABIw2lyJb3rwglkv3/s640/Siberia+CO+surface+Earth+Nullschool+July+21+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: Earth Nullschool</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">These fires and resulting emissions are making it more challenging for the world to make progress in meeting a future 1.5 or 2C goal set in the Paris Climate Agreement.</span><br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-80196015087141673782018-07-11T10:55:00.000-07:002018-07-11T10:55:40.258-07:00Global CH4 Up 10.2 ppb in April 2018<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">On July 5th, NOAA ESRL released the preliminary April 2018 global mean CH4 concentration. This month's concentration reached 1858 ppb, which is 10.2 ppb above April, 2017. It is also the second consecutive month with increases above 10 ppb, since June, 2016. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">What is troublingly different is that June 2016's increase was still associated</span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"> with the 2015-2016 El Nino. The March and April 2018 increases are not. Whether these remain as double digit increases will become clear over the next several months as additional site samples are submitted and tested. If they do, what is significant is that this </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">increase of</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"> global methane emissions will be most likely be primarily from anthropogenic sources.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEToHLEQJ9urTjF_s043Fkq-OPb-4An-FZgJYhnU2oUrPvCQUp7wZcSb5qeRngPfbGbCzcNhyi0n80RUvahD5sYIGQOSS4EsaTDxdHZCFEZtNGlTXbhLL2UL_92_FwetPPfCNDtKt-Mpcf/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+5+Yr+Data+1983-April+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="702" data-original-width="819" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEToHLEQJ9urTjF_s043Fkq-OPb-4An-FZgJYhnU2oUrPvCQUp7wZcSb5qeRngPfbGbCzcNhyi0n80RUvahD5sYIGQOSS4EsaTDxdHZCFEZtNGlTXbhLL2UL_92_FwetPPfCNDtKt-Mpcf/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+5+Yr+Data+1983-April+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The April 2018 global mean concentration is 13 percent higher than April, 1984. We also are potentially observing an ongoing acceleration of CH4 increase in the atmosphere.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI1Y34auuxAP6RiSgHfdnqVOSb5M-5HUlTSFdFje9RbXRuJPrFQl5vCgKYrEHau7bx8xMWUez-hg6NX2E3U5ftKyoxwWkLa-HqKOE-oISMyR1IammAvKNLy-mcBiPiJoPpx0jl3qOFYwaZ/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+Monthly+Trend+A4R+1983-April+2018.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="519" data-original-width="915" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI1Y34auuxAP6RiSgHfdnqVOSb5M-5HUlTSFdFje9RbXRuJPrFQl5vCgKYrEHau7bx8xMWUez-hg6NX2E3U5ftKyoxwWkLa-HqKOE-oISMyR1IammAvKNLy-mcBiPiJoPpx0jl3qOFYwaZ/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+Monthly+Trend+A4R+1983-April+2018.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The five and ten year trends of CH4 mean concentration change reveal this global acceleration. The April 2018 mean of 1858 ppb is 45.2 ppb above the same month in 2013. This is the second highest five year change, and is the 12th consecutive month of a five year change in concentration above 40 ppb.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The CH4 mean concentration change since April 2008 is 71.5 ppb. This is the third month in a row of a decadal concentration change above 70 ppb. Again, it is troubling that the only other time we have experienced a ten year change above 70 ppb was in response to the 2015-2016 strong El Nino. This time there is no El Nino affecting this methane increase.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1UtAqEySNzUJnDK-S3_6laP1tXM5ByDaE2SR9c60bv_wi3vBbfUCXeWidOnCCKrLAtGxKt3Cr7sSoqotD_aj9iQQgaSz2PcH4gWisfVvP8SrD8RxBBd5OBNjQYjhFPG3ctu_dq_IMpdnE/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+1+5+10+Yr+Anom+A4R+Data+1983-April+2018.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="916" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1UtAqEySNzUJnDK-S3_6laP1tXM5ByDaE2SR9c60bv_wi3vBbfUCXeWidOnCCKrLAtGxKt3Cr7sSoqotD_aj9iQQgaSz2PcH4gWisfVvP8SrD8RxBBd5OBNjQYjhFPG3ctu_dq_IMpdnE/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+1+5+10+Yr+Anom+A4R+Data+1983-April+2018.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">With increases in global natural gas production, increasing fire emissions, and permafrost warming in the Arctic, it is quite likely that this trend will continue into the foreseeable future.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL: <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/</a></span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-92201996754690578802018-07-08T12:14:00.000-07:002018-07-08T12:14:17.590-07:00Global CO2 hits 408.96 ppm in April 2018<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">On July 5, NOAA ESRL published the preliminary April, 2018 global CO2 results. The world reached 408.96 ppm, up 2.63 ppm over April, 2017. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_X05x4Rd0uqA0afpeAWP-1hDUwL33aX0hS9FEwyb1d2KSFwJurkz8SOB-VXpC_oTtf51ddAsVdR01I2VtDNtyUoAGg2niB26Exv69vPge7_ebHnhiBeM0OGVpAfGfE7fljPtnpnQ9Qwkq/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+April+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="692" data-original-width="803" height="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_X05x4Rd0uqA0afpeAWP-1hDUwL33aX0hS9FEwyb1d2KSFwJurkz8SOB-VXpC_oTtf51ddAsVdR01I2VtDNtyUoAGg2niB26Exv69vPge7_ebHnhiBeM0OGVpAfGfE7fljPtnpnQ9Qwkq/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+April+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">This continues the monthly increases above 2 ppm for the fifth month, without a boost often associated with an El Nino. It continues the slow acceleration of atmospheric CO2 concentration buildup.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwdfNsRZFGOgXqfTdb-jAqSOZkWYVDUu2wJNvSIm_P65lBzF2hYmUc_DfHoyKlLSaiLz0zVgk_Vl1k0xgbnaTFOEYAW5O0rj3lI4APYA9Vuflhy9uTkn717OZL4B3nJeSg8OiosIQZXbpF/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+1980+-+April+2018+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="855" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwdfNsRZFGOgXqfTdb-jAqSOZkWYVDUu2wJNvSIm_P65lBzF2hYmUc_DfHoyKlLSaiLz0zVgk_Vl1k0xgbnaTFOEYAW5O0rj3lI4APYA9Vuflhy9uTkn717OZL4B3nJeSg8OiosIQZXbpF/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+1980+-+April+2018+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">While April 2017 to 2018 increase was 2.63 ppm, </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">the five and ten year change in CO2 makes the accelerating </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">trends more apparent. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">The 2018 concentration was 12.44 ppm above April 2013, and was the 26th month with an approximate 12 ppm increase. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">The change between 2018 and April 2008, was in increase of 22.67 ppm, supporting the slowly accelerating rate of increase of CO2 concentration. It is the 21st consecutive month with a 10 year change above 22 ppm.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYjE0JcXTSmIB9kg71W2q2XEBQrd1o6N1JhtEt-hqjHQ30DkJlqG8SI0zMwlubdDwqz8-9ePQjD19ZzVeAauucfqxL-52gIaCDuDbJSWZpH2s1NBpGerCjfkJ14Q9z5Ke0IL3Mn4ik4_Ny/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trends+1+5+10+Years+April+2018+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="855" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYjE0JcXTSmIB9kg71W2q2XEBQrd1o6N1JhtEt-hqjHQ30DkJlqG8SI0zMwlubdDwqz8-9ePQjD19ZzVeAauucfqxL-52gIaCDuDbJSWZpH2s1NBpGerCjfkJ14Q9z5Ke0IL3Mn4ik4_Ny/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trends+1+5+10+Years+April+2018+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">It is likely that April will be the peak global CO2 concentration for this year. However if trends hold, we are on track to exceed 410 ppm globally between February to April, 2019. That will be the first time in human history the planet will experience a 10 ppm change on CO2 concentration in 48 months - or perhaps less. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4HxT0CZMSvI5SKe0EeSGPEZen9-gPtIW_H-6W1NewmIgExWepLxZk8TrTdRBb1eeFaoT1GXVMmgTR3LeSLVv1Wcltb1FqcNFX1GVDe8_vmmk3EjiAgAdVoEe1ZeTroXqFQRlTw75dYxAP/s1600/Global+CO2+10+ppm+Trend+Milestones+April+2018.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="855" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4HxT0CZMSvI5SKe0EeSGPEZen9-gPtIW_H-6W1NewmIgExWepLxZk8TrTdRBb1eeFaoT1GXVMmgTR3LeSLVv1Wcltb1FqcNFX1GVDe8_vmmk3EjiAgAdVoEe1ZeTroXqFQRlTw75dYxAP/s640/Global+CO2+10+ppm+Trend+Milestones+April+2018.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">This trend that takes us toward future climate disaster that we want to avoid. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">A continued increase of 10 ppm every 48 months places us on track to double preindustrial CO2 (280 ppm) by 2080. Further increases in emissions may put us on the path of adding 10 ppm every 36 months, which potentially shortens the time to doubling (560 ppm) into the 2060's.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 479px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2267; mso-width-source: userset; width: 47pt;" width="62"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 1280; mso-width-source: userset; width: 26pt;" width="35"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2267; mso-width-source: userset; width: 47pt;" width="62"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2706; mso-width-source: userset; width: 56pt;" width="74"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2084; mso-width-source: userset; width: 43pt;" width="57"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2340; mso-width-source: userset; width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2230; mso-width-source: userset; width: 46pt;" width="61"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" colspan="5" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; mso-ignore: colspan; width: 224pt;" width="297">Global CO2 Future Estimates 10 ppm Increases</td>
<td style="width: 43pt;" width="57"></td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td style="width: 46pt;" width="61"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Year</td>
<td colspan="2">60 month</td>
<td>Year</td>
<td>48 month</td>
<td></td>
<td>Year</td>
<td>36 month</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2015</td>
<td align="right">400</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2015</td>
<td align="right">400</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2015</td>
<td align="right">400</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2020</td>
<td align="right">410</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2019</td>
<td align="right">410</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2018</td>
<td align="right">410</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2025</td>
<td align="right">420</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2023</td>
<td align="right">420</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2021</td>
<td align="right">420</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2030</td>
<td align="right">430</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2027</td>
<td align="right">430</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2024</td>
<td align="right">430</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2035</td>
<td align="right">440</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2031</td>
<td align="right">440</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2027</td>
<td align="right">440</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2040</td>
<td align="right">450</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2035</td>
<td align="right">450</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2030</td>
<td align="right">450</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl67" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2045</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">460</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">2039</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">460</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">2033</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">460</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2050</td>
<td align="right">470</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2043</td>
<td align="right">470</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2036</td>
<td align="right">470</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2055</td>
<td align="right">480</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2047</td>
<td align="right">480</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2039</td>
<td align="right">480</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2060</td>
<td align="right">490</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2051</td>
<td align="right">490</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2042</td>
<td align="right">490</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2065</td>
<td align="right">500</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2055</td>
<td align="right">500</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2045</td>
<td align="right">500</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2070</td>
<td align="right">510</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2059</td>
<td align="right">510</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2048</td>
<td align="right">510</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2075</td>
<td align="right">520</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2063</td>
<td align="right">520</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2051</td>
<td align="right">520</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2080</td>
<td align="right">530</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2067</td>
<td align="right">530</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2054</td>
<td align="right">530</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2085</td>
<td align="right">540</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2071</td>
<td align="right">540</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2057</td>
<td align="right">540</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2090</td>
<td align="right">550</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2075</td>
<td align="right">550</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2060</td>
<td align="right">550</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2095</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="background-color: yellow;">560</span></td>
<td></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2079</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="background-color: yellow;">560</span></td>
<td></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66">2063</td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="background-color: yellow;">560</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2100</td>
<td align="right">570</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2083</td>
<td align="right">570</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2066</td>
<td align="right">570</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2105</td>
<td align="right">580</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2087</td>
<td align="right">580</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2069</td>
<td align="right">580</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2110</td>
<td align="right">590</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2091</td>
<td align="right">590</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2072</td>
<td align="right">590</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2115</td>
<td align="right">600</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2095</td>
<td align="right">600</td>
<td></td>
<td align="right">2075</td>
<td align="right">600</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span><div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The world being left to future generations will not be with world we live in today. As Christine LaGarde, <a href="https://draft.blogger.com/null" name="_Hlk513361058"><span style="background: white; line-height: 115%;">Managing
Director of the International Monetary Fund, </span></a>stated in Riyadh in October, 2017, "I<span style="background-color: white;">f we do not do anything about climate change
now, in fifty years’ time we will be toasted, roasted and grilled.” </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Source: Christine LaGarde, </span>“Future
Investment Initiative,” Day 1, The Big Shift: What New Frameworks are Needed to
Understand the Future? Panel Discussion, (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: October 24,
2017),</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-28313667983017010052018-07-06T16:16:00.003-07:002018-07-06T16:16:16.149-07:00Super Typhoon Maria: Category 1 to 5 in 24 hours<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUIiTKe4RWmtKW7QY3LjMAN6Iut-fxyU-7B22xXRzn6y3vSlAi_bJUMdLGoZJgx9BEVU7_pUp0A0EaBMkkdk4cifGhsmF9eYnfYendQPt4ExX2Mlerd15J6FFT5X7CvCQKg81cDhZc9emd/s1600/ST+Maria+-+Pacific+himawari-8_band_13_sector_02+July+6+2018.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1020" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUIiTKe4RWmtKW7QY3LjMAN6Iut-fxyU-7B22xXRzn6y3vSlAi_bJUMdLGoZJgx9BEVU7_pUp0A0EaBMkkdk4cifGhsmF9eYnfYendQPt4ExX2Mlerd15J6FFT5X7CvCQKg81cDhZc9emd/s640/ST+Maria+-+Pacific+himawari-8_band_13_sector_02+July+6+2018.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">On July 2, Super Typhoon Maria formed as a tropical depression at 2040 hours. Barely eight hours later, on July 3, 0410 hours Maria became a tropical storm near Guam. For the next 28 hours, Maria slowly strengthened as a tropical storm.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">On July 5, 0840, it was like an explosion occurred, for in the space of 30 minutes, Maria spiked from a 53 knot tropical storm to a 72 knot </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">typhoon, equal in strength to a </span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">category one hurricane.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Maria only remained at a category one equivalent hurricane strength for nine hours, when her pressure dropped and she blew through a category two to a category three equivalent hurricane in 2 hours, from July 5 1740 to 1950. Typhoon Maria only remained at a category three strength for five hours, when at July 6, 0040 hours, she became a super typhoon with 115 knot sustained winds.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0b_qmV56cSyuucMVEFgU-PMyWkBRuDHk57bTOCij7p2DyJRbvpQq9P2X0rUxRkZr0lOe6ClR6bqpiQSbR506qyyPeekLoqiRgOEjM_vKI6r68goEA8X2OMpTOreJ34QZ7cCw2MBTyW3O6/s1600/ST+Maria+-+Pacific+10WP+July+5+2018.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0b_qmV56cSyuucMVEFgU-PMyWkBRuDHk57bTOCij7p2DyJRbvpQq9P2X0rUxRkZr0lOe6ClR6bqpiQSbR506qyyPeekLoqiRgOEjM_vKI6r68goEA8X2OMpTOreJ34QZ7cCw2MBTyW3O6/s640/ST+Maria+-+Pacific+10WP+July+5+2018.GIF" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Maria was not done strengthening. She accelerated to 135 knot sustained winds, a category 5 super typhoon by July 6, 0840 hours, in just eight hours. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">So from July 5, 0910 a category 1 to July 6, 0910 a category 5!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjisSG5x8NrVT3fYys2uzRA3tvxPr-NG7KGLMm1MqusNQZ-hDHjuZtsGfbwV8_UDeZdJd4hfipOdk0jRDQQIbDAsFsOoIwQChDQ4BSb9uwG6DdRsUN0Rj4YIOpvKvGP-R6P1Ut2-69Npxf4/s1600/ST+Maria+-+Pacific+Super+Typhoon+July+6+2018+1130+Zoom.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="836" data-original-width="1600" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjisSG5x8NrVT3fYys2uzRA3tvxPr-NG7KGLMm1MqusNQZ-hDHjuZtsGfbwV8_UDeZdJd4hfipOdk0jRDQQIbDAsFsOoIwQChDQ4BSb9uwG6DdRsUN0Rj4YIOpvKvGP-R6P1Ut2-69Npxf4/s640/ST+Maria+-+Pacific+Super+Typhoon+July+6+2018+1130+Zoom.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Sources:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Tropical Cyclone Scales: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales#Western_Pacific">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales#Western_Pacific</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Super Typhoon Maria Intensification: </span><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 78px;"><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 59pt;" width="78"><a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/10W.2dwind.txt"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/10W.2dwind.txt</span></a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br />Super Typhoon commentary and updates: <a href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/28799">http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/28799</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-87976080026001065712018-07-01T12:33:00.003-07:002018-07-01T12:33:27.155-07:00March 2018 Global Mean CH4 up 11.2 ppb over March 2017<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">NOAA ESRL released its preliminary global mean CH4 on June 5 2018, with an initial reading of 1859.1 ppb. This mean was 11.2 ppb over March 2017. </span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPtr2UoNdYvdTlSTkzXBcqkfj7A6iLEjrCjHrh9Ieh3Df-PXV2e314veqEugIcGXtl_2aMrWuzBdUJPn0YVVHPB4r92fFRL9CyN_smeQMauDNuvK6nmZhhBP7TDU2ZR6yef3ZTVSmxbKGd/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+5+Yr+Data+1983-March+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="760" height="598" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPtr2UoNdYvdTlSTkzXBcqkfj7A6iLEjrCjHrh9Ieh3Df-PXV2e314veqEugIcGXtl_2aMrWuzBdUJPn0YVVHPB4r92fFRL9CyN_smeQMauDNuvK6nmZhhBP7TDU2ZR6yef3ZTVSmxbKGd/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+5+Yr+Data+1983-March+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">This continues the increase in global methane that has been observed globally by NOAA ESRL since 1983. It is almost a 13.4% increase in global mean methane since March, 1984.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbeZrUdLHQTKzpcLYsnn2QS9Ue5SXj2OjhylSao3t4ocs937q8wTNjitsuRrGm1tmRnD9s80gDpbBM77SVNjqySysLGJJuUFjKg5cJnC0MaBWM-oX2z-Pn6HGdFt1SQ1pwNhPvi2aCjmyB/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+Monthly+Trend+A4R+1983-March+2018.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="915" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbeZrUdLHQTKzpcLYsnn2QS9Ue5SXj2OjhylSao3t4ocs937q8wTNjitsuRrGm1tmRnD9s80gDpbBM77SVNjqySysLGJJuUFjKg5cJnC0MaBWM-oX2z-Pn6HGdFt1SQ1pwNhPvi2aCjmyB/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+Monthly+Trend+A4R+1983-March+2018.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">This month's 11.2 ppb increase over March 2017, represents the highest rate of increase since December 2015, and if the results remain above a 10 ppb increase in the coming months, as more samples are collected, it will be the first month with an increase above 10 ppb since July 2016.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">However, it is the longer trends that demonstrate the accelerating rate of increase of CH4 concentration in the atmosphere.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl-TeIrYZhyphenhyphenB9Cd6yLHdArH6YinipCe1OK1n-Et20XT7ceFabCROSJGY1EiLdQOdyMjoCGYdoouizONwnIS2iEASUVS7XFg5sBKUm0PFub_9nDTndGjFiwwxN9GeaBLe42eMZ-IQ-x-CjU/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+1+5+10+Yr+Anom+A4R+Data+1983-March+2018.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="916" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl-TeIrYZhyphenhyphenB9Cd6yLHdArH6YinipCe1OK1n-Et20XT7ceFabCROSJGY1EiLdQOdyMjoCGYdoouizONwnIS2iEASUVS7XFg5sBKUm0PFub_9nDTndGjFiwwxN9GeaBLe42eMZ-IQ-x-CjU/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+1+5+10+Yr+Anom+A4R+Data+1983-March+2018.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Since March 2013, global mean CH4 has increased by 46.1 ppb, the highest rate of increase since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the most since May, 1993. It is also the eleventh month of five year comparison increases over 40 ppb, last experienced in 1992-1993.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The ten year increase, since March, 2008 is 73.6 ppb. This is the highest 10 year change since March, 1999. It is obvious from the data and graphic, that methane continues to increase in concentration and reflects increasing </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">global </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">emissions.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Recent research has attributed the methane increases primarily to growth in livestock production and changes in rainfall in the tropics. However, according to the USDA global markets report, there has not been a major increase in livestock (cattle or swine) production since 2014. We have seen significant increases in CH4 concentration during that time.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 223px;">
<colgroup><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2925; mso-width-source: userset; width: 60pt;" width="80"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2889; mso-width-source: userset; width: 59pt;" width="79"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td colspan="2" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; mso-ignore: colspan; width: 108pt;" width="144">USDA World Markets</td>
<td style="width: 59pt;" width="79"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" class="xl66" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">Apr-18</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl67" colspan="3" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; mso-ignore: colspan;"><a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/livestock_poultry.pdf">https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/livestock_poultry.pdf</a></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td colspan="2" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; mso-ignore: colspan;">Cattle
Production</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="60" style="height: 45.0pt;">
<td height="60" style="height: 45.0pt;"></td>
<td class="xl64" style="width: 60pt;" width="80">Total Cattle Beginning Stocks</td>
<td class="xl64" style="width: 59pt;" width="79">Total Cattle Production</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2014</td>
<td class="xl65"> 1,008,403 </td>
<td class="xl65"> 292,235 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2015</td>
<td class="xl65"> 979,636 </td>
<td class="xl65"> 288,195 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2016</td>
<td class="xl65"> 988,487 </td>
<td class="xl65"> 288,286 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2017</td>
<td class="xl65"> 995,342 </td>
<td class="xl65"> 293,224 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2018 Oct</td>
<td class="xl65"> 1,004,067 </td>
<td class="xl65"> 298,335 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2018 Aor</td>
<td class="xl65"> 1,001,841 </td>
<td class="xl65"> 296,618 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td colspan="2" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt; mso-ignore: colspan;">Swine
Production</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="60" style="height: 45.0pt;">
<td height="60" style="height: 45.0pt;"></td>
<td class="xl64" style="width: 60pt;" width="80">Total Swine Beginning Stocks</td>
<td class="xl64" style="width: 59pt;" width="79">Total Swine Production</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2014</td>
<td class="xl65"> 798,311 </td>
<td class="xl65"> 1,280,041 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2015</td>
<td class="xl65"> 795,862 </td>
<td class="xl65"> 1,263,225 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2016</td>
<td class="xl65"> 785,296 </td>
<td class="xl65"> 1,248,378 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2017</td>
<td class="xl65"> 769,192 </td>
<td class="xl65"> 1,266,199 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2018 Oct</td>
<td class="xl65"> 755,242 </td>
<td class="xl65"> 1,291,635 </td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">2018 Aor</td>
<td class="xl65"> 772,470 </td>
<td class="xl65"> 1,298,206 </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">However more research is needed to localize sources and particularly to determine if natural gas production is making a higher contribution to changes in methane concentration.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">There may be other natural methanogenic sources that need further consideration, but that is another post.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-6902374912377954952018-06-30T15:35:00.004-07:002018-06-30T16:01:48.405-07:00March Global Mean CO2 is 408.75 ppm, up 2.71 ppm from 2017<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">On June 5th, NOAA/ESRL announced the preliminary March 2018 global mean CO2 concentration was 408.75 ppm. This was a concerning increase of 2.71 ppm over 2017.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4FpRQMN2LF23a9bWIjiTVY6QDYYAhCwwo7GhCYEKf9ov5FFwzPcr54dbifpj8XN4JjgL33FwPz0sUqFdcDtadS3LN7wtKuH-FQdby8PHevdgS7jS91aYDvMNkS1RujL7zpsAWNbLTObAT/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Global+Greenhouse+Gas+CO2+Trend+March+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="693" data-original-width="769" height="576" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4FpRQMN2LF23a9bWIjiTVY6QDYYAhCwwo7GhCYEKf9ov5FFwzPcr54dbifpj8XN4JjgL33FwPz0sUqFdcDtadS3LN7wtKuH-FQdby8PHevdgS7jS91aYDvMNkS1RujL7zpsAWNbLTObAT/s640/ESRL+GMD+Global+Greenhouse+Gas+CO2+Trend+March+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">This rate of increase is of concern, since it is the highest monthly increase over prior year, that seems unrelated to an El Nino, and the highest monthly rate of increase since December, 2016. This CO2 concentration is another marker in the slowly accelerating rise observable in the monthly means since 1980.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCdkNMh5tfASCb_QEZRnPUDjvzxOmom0csRs11rM_kmywLoUprTlx9JugdraZuLG-moh5u7ScM2Gi_JELDSg2HWANz9pXGBytkOB0df8GYbaRjttu41rmdEfTtmEwdpVag-xmWGYg0o5wu/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+1980+-+Mar+2018+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="559" data-original-width="856" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCdkNMh5tfASCb_QEZRnPUDjvzxOmom0csRs11rM_kmywLoUprTlx9JugdraZuLG-moh5u7ScM2Gi_JELDSg2HWANz9pXGBytkOB0df8GYbaRjttu41rmdEfTtmEwdpVag-xmWGYg0o5wu/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+1980+-+Mar+2018+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The acceleration is less apparent in the annual monthly mean change, than in the five or ten year change in CO2 concentration.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7xw0EPs26KQziEgHKq4-ZhPnamzRpkqxeVVmzQKEVxU3exLZzFFbxH5fWIoadJUMp4C_oF0Vinf4XfjjxaUkBOGVQ2H1zFh4GH7tkFwD-_j5JDzALyuutc1jijV-9T29uZqyFzV05XzLP/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trends+1+5+10+Years+March+2018+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="857" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7xw0EPs26KQziEgHKq4-ZhPnamzRpkqxeVVmzQKEVxU3exLZzFFbxH5fWIoadJUMp4C_oF0Vinf4XfjjxaUkBOGVQ2H1zFh4GH7tkFwD-_j5JDzALyuutc1jijV-9T29uZqyFzV05XzLP/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trends+1+5+10+Years+March+2018+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">What is noticeable in the annual monthly mean change is that since 2009, there have been more and higher peaks in the trend than in years prior to 2009. The five year change of 12.68 ppm continues the almost unbroken trend of months above a 12 ppm increase since March, 2016. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Where the increasing acceleration of CO2 concentration is most apparent is the increase over ten years. March 2018 is 22.68 ppm higher than 2008. This is the highest change of any month over one ten years before.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Given reports of annual increases in global anthroprogenic CO2 emissions this year over 2017, we can anticipate these monthly concentrations will continue to rise in year to come.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-38785441112462087992018-05-19T15:46:00.000-07:002018-05-19T16:32:35.333-07:00February Global CO2 Increase of 2.78 ppm Over 2017<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">On May 6th, NOAA ESRL published the February, 2018 global average carbon dioxide concentration. The average of 408.39 was 2.78 ppm above February, 2017. This is an unusual jump because it seems to be the highest of any non-El Nino impacted year and tied for third highest of any February monthly increase. It will be interesting to see how this is revised when the March 2018 averages are released.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLc6pEGE7x3dA5hMcYz-HhOeEiKQ94PLqo7pMYGAWOFYaRl4HtktJRKfsOZbf05tTxdyJV4l-ll9xV5UJR1Ye_GKJtarDPDzhKSyRP2a1kbHipEENnuDOB2fj3MA51LjTiSodARZbQG3DQ/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Global+Greenhouse+Gas+CO2+Trend+Ferbuary+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="682" data-original-width="800" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLc6pEGE7x3dA5hMcYz-HhOeEiKQ94PLqo7pMYGAWOFYaRl4HtktJRKfsOZbf05tTxdyJV4l-ll9xV5UJR1Ye_GKJtarDPDzhKSyRP2a1kbHipEENnuDOB2fj3MA51LjTiSodARZbQG3DQ/s640/ESRL+GMD+Global+Greenhouse+Gas+CO2+Trend+Ferbuary+2018.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Source: <a href="https://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html">https://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">This trend of increases is evident in the NOAA ESRL global CO2 concentration as measured since January, 1980.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1lXaUoTR1-wKW998YR9SFmII1w4syRTalNBxbw1J5RSahExMRHDASzDN75wf8CpzrJ4YcYsBaY_890GNNE-oJtdJkDYG59pr3MpLEHtWX94rDe0FBpNRe_AOMLqyekwqa5u-0XDcWveNW/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+1980+-+Feb+2018+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="857" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1lXaUoTR1-wKW998YR9SFmII1w4syRTalNBxbw1J5RSahExMRHDASzDN75wf8CpzrJ4YcYsBaY_890GNNE-oJtdJkDYG59pr3MpLEHtWX94rDe0FBpNRe_AOMLqyekwqa5u-0XDcWveNW/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+1980+-+Feb+2018+A4R.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">What is more concerning is that the five year rate of increase has moved up to 12.90 ppm compared to February 2013. The return to increasing five year change rates may indicate rising global CO2 emissions as much as the impact of northern hemisphere winter.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The February decadal change was 22.90 ppm above February 2008. This is the highest global CO2 10 year change of any month in the NOAA ESRL record. If the trend holds, we will move above a 23 ppm change rate sometime this summer. This is not the trend we want to see - or live with.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVXtxjfn_4QPVHU3rJlDdWGZ77iRSI16R1laAVtte7uKmbi7ryH6Jal5ZSpjGFu4J1Z2Av6aPBj1iEXpA9BEw8Qu3OrqTNN8HUqNUmwPHGseGWRv3g5PfkDzQoLbjYp30oDvtk9NaAQ8Hg/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trends+1+5+10+Years+Feb+2018+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="857" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVXtxjfn_4QPVHU3rJlDdWGZ77iRSI16R1laAVtte7uKmbi7ryH6Jal5ZSpjGFu4J1Z2Av6aPBj1iEXpA9BEw8Qu3OrqTNN8HUqNUmwPHGseGWRv3g5PfkDzQoLbjYp30oDvtk9NaAQ8Hg/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trends+1+5+10+Years+Feb+2018+A4R.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL and Apocalyspe4Real</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">These global CO2 increases become more stark when placed against earlier base concentration averages.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Since 1980, with a base of 338.45 ppm, a 20.42 percent increase. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Since 1958, with a base of 315.97 ppm a 29.25 percent increase.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Since 1880, with a base of 290.8 ppm, a 40.44 percent increase.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Since 1750, with a base of 278 ppm, a 46.90 percent increase. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">It is quite likely the global CO2 monthly average will move above 409 ppm, but less likely to reach a 410 ppm monthly average in May or June of 2018. But a global monthly average above 410 ppm has high probability of occurring in 2019.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-30191505723802923102018-04-15T13:03:00.000-07:002018-04-15T13:03:13.313-07:00Global CO2 Passes 407.5 ppm For First Time<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The NOAA ESRL Global CO2 report for January 2018 was released on April 9th. For the first time in 800,000 years we experienced a CO2 concentration over 407.5 ppm, an increase of 2.48 ppm over January 2017.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJXYkM1F6o_LxXhU8CGPjecEMm3DOnEDK7W5t3qtt6zRVvRN7nEmCIm2sqW34sLLj5uDs_xeZ4F_5odjwKdhc8-vIjo89yzBkxIrxROYiYmLayqBG-mAf0UPvNZddnr_nceCNf4bM62R9K/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Global+Greenhouse+Gas+CO2+Trend+January+2018.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="800" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJXYkM1F6o_LxXhU8CGPjecEMm3DOnEDK7W5t3qtt6zRVvRN7nEmCIm2sqW34sLLj5uDs_xeZ4F_5odjwKdhc8-vIjo89yzBkxIrxROYiYmLayqBG-mAf0UPvNZddnr_nceCNf4bM62R9K/s640/ESRL+GMD+Global+Greenhouse+Gas+CO2+Trend+January+2018.PNG" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Since January 1980, global CO2 concentrations have increased from 338.45 ppm to 407.54 - an increase of over 69 ppm or 20.41%. However, if one uses a pre-industrial </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">ice core based </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">concentration</span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"> of 278 ppm, then we are living with an atmospheric concentration average increase of more than 46 percent.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbOa2JZ5sp_a3d0o3w7rKzBc0VKSX87WANOahXpWlovLBXK5B5nyRS4ldborVyJEuD6Wv3jAjjvtLP4jhzmnlFueC3F3_oq-_JMAeAjw9D1ZguZg7k9eZ3Wm1fAfzmOVISbLmCXMx8ryO4/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+1980+-+Jan+2018+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="857" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbOa2JZ5sp_a3d0o3w7rKzBc0VKSX87WANOahXpWlovLBXK5B5nyRS4ldborVyJEuD6Wv3jAjjvtLP4jhzmnlFueC3F3_oq-_JMAeAjw9D1ZguZg7k9eZ3Wm1fAfzmOVISbLmCXMx8ryO4/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+1980+-+Jan+2018+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">We continue to experience an increased rise in the rate of concentration. If one considers the five year change in atmospheric CO2, it has increased by 12.68 ppm, a rate which is slowly increasing both during and after La Nina conditions. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">If one compares the decadal difference, we are 22.56 ppm above January, 2008, and at the highest 10 year rate of increase for any month since January 1980, when NOAA ESRL global CO2 records began.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSRz2PblAuERSJ_fey3nlmGqJKkHh1BeU7sY_JVIET7WxoW5CrJ274h5KuOxgPKRVXcyUXz4ooM-lgBstoAUwURhNjyDleyIHt4hHm5EZmyWoeljxMy6SnIqMInTyeMwN0CkauJivqQ_-v/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trends+1+5+10+Years+January+2018+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="857" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSRz2PblAuERSJ_fey3nlmGqJKkHh1BeU7sY_JVIET7WxoW5CrJ274h5KuOxgPKRVXcyUXz4ooM-lgBstoAUwURhNjyDleyIHt4hHm5EZmyWoeljxMy6SnIqMInTyeMwN0CkauJivqQ_-v/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trends+1+5+10+Years+January+2018+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The trend of rising annual rates of growth remain intact, with NOAA ESRL initially estimating an annual increase of 2.34 ppm for 2017. While this is not a record high, it is another step in the rising base or years of </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">lowest </span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">CO2 increases. Here is what is meant if one starts with the Mauna Loa annual concentrations, prior to 1980:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">The last year of less than 0.5 ppm increase - 1964.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">The last year with less than 1.0 ppm increase - 1992.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The last year with less than a 1.5 ppm increase - 2000.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The last year with less than a 2.0 ppm increase - 2011.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The following graphic depicts this by a polynomial trend, what we hope will soon change its slope.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPEcTPGG2VCfNkF496HPkAh3Qco0bz2lHU9j0QlFtf1NRD3y3kZUzgbuzlrjbDl3LFI5oyKGcq0k54qWTWBkDyOaqjNJcQXoYNd8wXDirrfK3vaN7MTs7wD8chGVIh3QH7a3wIVMZjFLc4/s1600/Global+CO2+%2528ppm%2529+Annual+Change+Trend+1959-2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="857" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPEcTPGG2VCfNkF496HPkAh3Qco0bz2lHU9j0QlFtf1NRD3y3kZUzgbuzlrjbDl3LFI5oyKGcq0k54qWTWBkDyOaqjNJcQXoYNd8wXDirrfK3vaN7MTs7wD8chGVIh3QH7a3wIVMZjFLc4/s640/Global+CO2+%2528ppm%2529+Annual+Change+Trend+1959-2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Another way to consider this CO2 rise is the acceleration in passing through each 10 ppm change of CO2. Given the recent trends of CO2 concentration increase, we will likely pass through 410 ppm for a monthly global average in March or April, 2019. That will be only four years since knifing through 400 ppm.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJBp8uGHt9ixBpEt2YHjSZsKZyu7HCLQlRKOYz24Jk8TcBgHNWd9IKxU0aeLZi8I5grlcLkl4JQF3iW8Pf8ED2LHzamhUo44AO6elfYF0dvUQa9ZKaKh840EPwnwJf6m5BEqYh21gUGMEo/s1600/Global+CO2+10+ppm+Trend+Milestones+410+ppm+in+Mar+2019+Est.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="857" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJBp8uGHt9ixBpEt2YHjSZsKZyu7HCLQlRKOYz24Jk8TcBgHNWd9IKxU0aeLZi8I5grlcLkl4JQF3iW8Pf8ED2LHzamhUo44AO6elfYF0dvUQa9ZKaKh840EPwnwJf6m5BEqYh21gUGMEo/s640/Global+CO2+10+ppm+Trend+Milestones+410+ppm+in+Mar+2019+Est.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">What we need to begin to carefully consider, is that humanity not only has to reduce human caused emissions, but also will have to offset the incremental climate feedbacks and loss of carbon sinks that are beginning to enhance the effects of human climate change activity.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-1166024150841711992018-02-24T21:41:00.004-08:002018-02-24T21:41:56.173-08:00Global CH4:: Decadal Methane Increase Above 70 ppb.<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">NOAA ESRL published the November, 2017 global methane (CH4) concentraion data on February 5, 2018. Once again we established a record high as atmospheric methane hit its annual peak. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1JgILdy-D15Ta2WHc-x0p-aFA9vIS1Fz1GlAHE2P-tausDV7BBx32nGppn07OK7InOshsmWy16WSlqqYYfLS-kyW1q9sUng0iMmmgNdmc3WD4QC1yy3vh7YPKhAYLXMM49UzGPwaurFVw/s1600/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division+CH4+November+2017.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="818" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1JgILdy-D15Ta2WHc-x0p-aFA9vIS1Fz1GlAHE2P-tausDV7BBx32nGppn07OK7InOshsmWy16WSlqqYYfLS-kyW1q9sUng0iMmmgNdmc3WD4QC1yy3vh7YPKhAYLXMM49UzGPwaurFVw/s640/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division+CH4+November+2017.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Last November's concentration was 8.9 ppb above November, 2016, continuing the higher trend after a brief slowdown in early 2017. It is sobering to realize that global CH4 has increase over 13% since November, 1983. There is no slow down in its annual increases since 2007.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRsQS3G7v7dmiAD2iy1X6JL3k7_MzLVxxtntx0Vxo_L2KgsT5LkkdS0aS6v5UN3yjd7U7-iA5YLAGWfx0jOkK_Z6SQ0ObJQheXn6IprBSADpwQNIWfqo-h-2n28Xo6xwyZH-2WSGUI1xSo/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+1983-November+2017+Monthly+Trend+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="915" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRsQS3G7v7dmiAD2iy1X6JL3k7_MzLVxxtntx0Vxo_L2KgsT5LkkdS0aS6v5UN3yjd7U7-iA5YLAGWfx0jOkK_Z6SQ0ObJQheXn6IprBSADpwQNIWfqo-h-2n28Xo6xwyZH-2WSGUI1xSo/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+1983-November+2017+Monthly+Trend+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Additionally, the rate of concentration increase has not continued to drop after the last El Nino, but is sustained above 7 ppb annually for the last 10 years. While the November, 2017 reading was 8.9 ppb above 2016, it is 43.9 ppb more than November, 2012, and over 70 ppb higher than November, 2007.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNQ3z9nNOFz8S9wxqIWcxjMVKp4nY3DVUP7aI98lx4idVB9tCJC_4KPm_xGByRsjjex06-pNKt0E2x-G9zkzihoqEwByqhS8KKv-0BfQ-iJBKRAQfo8Y6cq9BFlKTkqksv2DW-CoYBXt7Y/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+1983-November+2017+1+5+10+Yr+Anom+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="916" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNQ3z9nNOFz8S9wxqIWcxjMVKp4nY3DVUP7aI98lx4idVB9tCJC_4KPm_xGByRsjjex06-pNKt0E2x-G9zkzihoqEwByqhS8KKv-0BfQ-iJBKRAQfo8Y6cq9BFlKTkqksv2DW-CoYBXt7Y/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+1983-November+2017+1+5+10+Yr+Anom+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Even more sobering is being reminded once again that we live in a 250% higher global methane concentration since pre-industrial(assuming 725 ppb in 1750-1800). </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">We also live on a planet, that based upon ice core data, has a higher atmospheric methane (CH4) concentration than at any time in the last 800,000 years.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQAzyp4anwkD9B5KCrwbrexMo8RXREIa4vqD1VnRg96uhXb9qEu7qq1gIry_e1x0PIMWyr4pgzCOZMUUGVKfm9Kb8Y6xtQDDVJ352Mxzf9PHIzTtP2nWB-keX7rHKbZ-P1mACAbr1cWHrX/s1600/Methane+Concentrations+Ice+Core+and+NOAA+ESRL+EPA+-2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="665" data-original-width="928" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQAzyp4anwkD9B5KCrwbrexMo8RXREIa4vqD1VnRg96uhXb9qEu7qq1gIry_e1x0PIMWyr4pgzCOZMUUGVKfm9Kb8Y6xtQDDVJ352Mxzf9PHIzTtP2nWB-keX7rHKbZ-P1mACAbr1cWHrX/s640/Methane+Concentrations+Ice+Core+and+NOAA+ESRL+EPA+-2016.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Source: EPA</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-37689413702311203852018-02-10T16:04:00.005-08:002018-02-11T10:42:55.467-08:00Global CO2 Hits 405.58 ppm in November, 2017 - New Monthly High<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">On February 5th, the latest NOAA ESRL Global CO2 update was released. The preliminary November 2017 concentration was reported at 405.58 ppm. This is 2.06 ppm above November 2016 and a new high for the month.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOvAjy6HDAN_41K3rgBMSxYP21E8k8A6pA9Kxm9434l6OL6tpmK9qNFhTxEKAqPpT01qYiUtcGD0jfvy4bV07iyBHZYW3JVUamr7yeh6IVW7r0Hiv45-j21gKagp3qqmocMmIlLwAPm7ua/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Global+Greenhouse+Gas+CO2+Trend+November+2017.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="694" data-original-width="810" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOvAjy6HDAN_41K3rgBMSxYP21E8k8A6pA9Kxm9434l6OL6tpmK9qNFhTxEKAqPpT01qYiUtcGD0jfvy4bV07iyBHZYW3JVUamr7yeh6IVW7r0Hiv45-j21gKagp3qqmocMmIlLwAPm7ua/s640/ESRL+GMD+Global+Greenhouse+Gas+CO2+Trend+November+2017.PNG" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Since November 1980, the world has experienced a 19.7% increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. If we assume a pre-industrial CO2 concentration of 278 ppm, then we have undergone a 46% increase.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuR655LLZUnCIbyZU8WQwVthWUTn-jT9renh0v2TUQMlQ_-CtqFvkFjc0lUmpgGUAo3VRBXl7GIqHCPtK6iGWuXEehzdvmmd_n1v33zlfansRj_NC2vF7jQ4im7RKfZXbyFTfPJ1bgS8tH/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+1980-+Nov+2017+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="561" data-original-width="854" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuR655LLZUnCIbyZU8WQwVthWUTn-jT9renh0v2TUQMlQ_-CtqFvkFjc0lUmpgGUAo3VRBXl7GIqHCPtK6iGWuXEehzdvmmd_n1v33zlfansRj_NC2vF7jQ4im7RKfZXbyFTfPJ1bgS8tH/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trend+1980-+Nov+2017+A4R.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source NOAA ERSL</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The annual, five-year and decadal CO2 concentrations remain at historically high rates of increase. The annual change had dipped under 2 ppm during the past three months. The last time that had occurred (less than a 2 ppm increase) was December, 2014. The five year increase rate is back over 12 ppm, a rate first reached in November, 2013. Since November 2007, global CO2 has climbed over 22 ppm, a rate first achieved in August, 2016, and has mostly remained above the 22 ppm increase rate since that month.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGoNZNj7ybbcNIh3S2YFgbQGfFLgOHfGY87gh4SZ6JofuX-UsgeT0zq6962-9FoCloV7l61FiyRye81-_p_wTksIE4yIlPU88xkAwAH6StwEBbFnN9697aU6t3LAfLHqkx1vO8CC4f0A0x/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trends+1+5+10+Years+November+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" data-original-height="561" data-original-width="854" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGoNZNj7ybbcNIh3S2YFgbQGfFLgOHfGY87gh4SZ6JofuX-UsgeT0zq6962-9FoCloV7l61FiyRye81-_p_wTksIE4yIlPU88xkAwAH6StwEBbFnN9697aU6t3LAfLHqkx1vO8CC4f0A0x/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO2+Trends+1+5+10+Years+November+2017.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">If emissions continue at this rate we will experience our first month above 410 ppm in 2019. Here are the historical rates of increase for each 5 and 10 ppm based upon MLO and Global data as it became available, and the table, including an estimate for 2019.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguWyqbzxXRKT_kDz6ZzFexgXMLFpcX6_ooEXjhYKjqpApQycJoJ1U-2qh5ONRwmD0z7SwvMc34Qhrp2cJr7OGqPPioxpSMMvsuhJu7O37MdadcOygOWAx18M0zu83WHBzdjQSBvlZXQPBe/s1600/Global+CO2+5+ppm+Trend+Milestones.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="561" data-original-width="854" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguWyqbzxXRKT_kDz6ZzFexgXMLFpcX6_ooEXjhYKjqpApQycJoJ1U-2qh5ONRwmD0z7SwvMc34Qhrp2cJr7OGqPPioxpSMMvsuhJu7O37MdadcOygOWAx18M0zu83WHBzdjQSBvlZXQPBe/s640/Global+CO2+5+ppm+Trend+Milestones.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwTaQJ6o-cmiWnckm6NGJ9ugfKe2A677CBr4tDL3sCTkgeHE-Jvac06Vuti4BF4fLjLGEtoX206HQcz_mjue39f1fhUflNGANMUtf5krH-1Ht7yUizrWKmKafBipdPgzQAHP_-vObWAPza/s1600/Global+CO2+10+ppm+Trend+Milestones.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="561" data-original-width="854" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwTaQJ6o-cmiWnckm6NGJ9ugfKe2A677CBr4tDL3sCTkgeHE-Jvac06Vuti4BF4fLjLGEtoX206HQcz_mjue39f1fhUflNGANMUtf5krH-1Ht7yUizrWKmKafBipdPgzQAHP_-vObWAPza/s640/Global+CO2+10+ppm+Trend+Milestones.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8CJ6cYmqJfjZUprIo9QuDSNWwd2-SaThgEsd_bJ2VpPEHXdJYk2cLb2RFGzu3sDX1HVRK9WH1qT577QdVTWg0pLeAox_d71d089-Eddue0wVdYEP2DbAUn1QYNcaF_FQaQIDT-jekgeoe/s1600/MLO+%2526+Glbl+monthly+mean+CO2+5+ppm+and+10+ppm+milestones+Feb+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="494" data-original-width="575" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8CJ6cYmqJfjZUprIo9QuDSNWwd2-SaThgEsd_bJ2VpPEHXdJYk2cLb2RFGzu3sDX1HVRK9WH1qT577QdVTWg0pLeAox_d71d089-Eddue0wVdYEP2DbAUn1QYNcaF_FQaQIDT-jekgeoe/s640/MLO+%2526+Glbl+monthly+mean+CO2+5+ppm+and+10+ppm+milestones+Feb+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">We have blown past any CO2 concentration recorded in the past 400,000 years.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLbDRofKHlxQpWOiLLgGTb-EXAyWc-xkdK3ZslZphzWfNct7PGOQPsnrSCwbjT8hQdWdWTP2jDQ-xtmYMmWHY36uP-Px5ruxdcCivN8evOIlLRTv_qawCQJGBTPcDq6uZdwjsmUQNS8EQs/s1600/NOAA+CO2+400+ky+November+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1016" data-original-width="1220" height="532" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLbDRofKHlxQpWOiLLgGTb-EXAyWc-xkdK3ZslZphzWfNct7PGOQPsnrSCwbjT8hQdWdWTP2jDQ-xtmYMmWHY36uP-Px5ruxdcCivN8evOIlLRTv_qawCQJGBTPcDq6uZdwjsmUQNS8EQs/s640/NOAA+CO2+400+ky+November+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">if we continue this rate of increase, we will add about 10 ppm every five years, and even at faster rates will soon move the planet into dangerous climate disruption territory.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS3Inwq9aH1SmyPvf53DHrdUig0pPnoYMZs_EL4YEXV-7N5SWWuk5Tpy0tVzTGRyQNvkd4_zwzmG0X9Fbb704RlImLkjp5L2nZv9GqsACeqMeaD6fuYs3rhDOz54bmrc9NU7Gjy8N1JL04/s1600/Global+CO2+Increase+Rates+60%252C+48%252C+36+to+700+ppm+February+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="393" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS3Inwq9aH1SmyPvf53DHrdUig0pPnoYMZs_EL4YEXV-7N5SWWuk5Tpy0tVzTGRyQNvkd4_zwzmG0X9Fbb704RlImLkjp5L2nZv9GqsACeqMeaD6fuYs3rhDOz54bmrc9NU7Gjy8N1JL04/s640/Global+CO2+Increase+Rates+60%252C+48%252C+36+to+700+ppm+February+2017.png" width="380" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">While speculative, these business as usual or continued accelerating increases will severely damage global social stability by its impact. One can hope that the international community will soon take steps to slow and reverse the 2% GHG increase which occurred in 2017.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6139ZEepgzIW3w3-js-KW0myfSAEPhUwaeSFGPfGChbBJ2OPoTUd0jzsWvZng8w2TzxlLJrlrL1F3Ne9YOva8UqnP3HjK7sEQtezYLAhXEWgU5JWx0ilf4gcRmwgXqOos3OsNIDwowq4u/s1600/Global+Carbon+Budget+Increase+2017.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1044" data-original-width="1564" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6139ZEepgzIW3w3-js-KW0myfSAEPhUwaeSFGPfGChbBJ2OPoTUd0jzsWvZng8w2TzxlLJrlrL1F3Ne9YOva8UqnP3HjK7sEQtezYLAhXEWgU5JWx0ilf4gcRmwgXqOos3OsNIDwowq4u/s640/Global+Carbon+Budget+Increase+2017.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: Global Carbon Project</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrKlX8M1ZgThbR5afMNZwYQ5FHB803NMduEN8SJqbtgxyhTcpvRsyMj08-ruQx8jUQngaP8RR7qlgoDNnA3-mIjKc5bLqqjCGCf2NUs2FAx7mqWb8NtBuL3ZKz2wE17jADyK3_FFUJYdk1/s1600/Global+Carbon+Budget+2017+Growth+2+Pct+2017.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="922" data-original-width="1600" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrKlX8M1ZgThbR5afMNZwYQ5FHB803NMduEN8SJqbtgxyhTcpvRsyMj08-ruQx8jUQngaP8RR7qlgoDNnA3-mIjKc5bLqqjCGCf2NUs2FAx7mqWb8NtBuL3ZKz2wE17jADyK3_FFUJYdk1/s640/Global+Carbon+Budget+2017+Growth+2+Pct+2017.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The struggle to balance economic growth while lowering emissions is difficult but necessary since climate sensitivity is creating social destabilization faster than anticipated. More on this another time.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-30485003636621720772017-07-02T08:42:00.003-07:002017-07-02T16:27:45.019-07:00Global CH4 Hits New Monthly High in March, 2017<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The March, 2017 global CH4 monthly mean data was released </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">by NOAA ESRL on </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">June 5th. The mean was 1847.8 ppb, up 5.7 ppb above March, 2016.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwe_NaTTBGKyyhpngExlWYyMGNE1GK1tXn88cv2Q98SmU7H_Q24HvhjB9FQq3X1NKWopP0kn9dkxVmGWXtfDCza3legNF_jl9IiYTns_wsXQ7kCQ8WBShvAdODPFGIZy6U6PdzmHAAGKDR/s1600/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division++CH4+March+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="759" height="602" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwe_NaTTBGKyyhpngExlWYyMGNE1GK1tXn88cv2Q98SmU7H_Q24HvhjB9FQq3X1NKWopP0kn9dkxVmGWXtfDCza3legNF_jl9IiYTns_wsXQ7kCQ8WBShvAdODPFGIZy6U6PdzmHAAGKDR/s640/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division++CH4+March+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL: <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The trend of increasing CH4 since early 2007 remains intact, although this has slowed somewhat since the recent high increases of 2014-2016. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQC3kBvyrSA3yjoU2HtYknLCuDTIY2Sj_ZOLabJuDzF1m-8YjRpPKDHyeSHBh4sCzo2uHYebHSLJH7PLQ1jijrz6zJAwOpnD4s8I6AJ0ikNprZg3cYyzPNhH4K5zT6WgAgGYde6PSJQ1MM/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+1983-March+2017+Monthly+Trend.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="915" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQC3kBvyrSA3yjoU2HtYknLCuDTIY2Sj_ZOLabJuDzF1m-8YjRpPKDHyeSHBh4sCzo2uHYebHSLJH7PLQ1jijrz6zJAwOpnD4s8I6AJ0ikNprZg3cYyzPNhH4K5zT6WgAgGYde6PSJQ1MM/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+1983-March+2017+Monthly+Trend.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">When one looks for milestones in the increases, assuming each 25 ppb increase as a milestone, the trend has been highly variable.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPOCElYC1EBxGYc5MYMn6WcAyKCxFzQ8D23CM-QABfa0_9SpvHgbarIVoPw6_8mF8QDHl9cgKLBAAwv6CpyASsOSB2BvPwQBRmYdo-GP87eFwQoLkvqjgiiLZqc5e0C2Hc92Wscjy8oqxy/s1600/global+CH4+Change+Rate+1983-2020+est.+MArch+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="357" data-original-width="288" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPOCElYC1EBxGYc5MYMn6WcAyKCxFzQ8D23CM-QABfa0_9SpvHgbarIVoPw6_8mF8QDHl9cgKLBAAwv6CpyASsOSB2BvPwQBRmYdo-GP87eFwQoLkvqjgiiLZqc5e0C2Hc92Wscjy8oqxy/s320/global+CH4+Change+Rate+1983-2020+est.+MArch+2017.png" width="258" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">While earlier milestone increases were achieved quickly, there was a long slow down from 1998 to 2007, which delayed reaching 1800 ppb until September, 2010. We have seen another acceleration between 1825-1850 ppb, that may interrelate with recent ocean warming, rice or cattle production. There is still considerable science discussion on causes for the increase since 2007, and perhaps the recent slow down in those increases.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The one, five and ten year trends depict the decline from the recent record increases in 2016. The one year monthly mean change was 5.7 ppb over March, 2016. The five year increase was 37.7 ppb over March, 2012. The decadal change was 68.2 ppb above March, 2007.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjthv0SkqT8cbhda1hSPalIqkiC8MediShXjmq1bJHVV9L7CjZqH6XwniCidfkoFcZ9TEXSXCbkAGbMI6KpPLWMtu32BL4sGqBuCseSYU_ejIU_OGES2xSqZytLmCi5BY6aKiV91o2ZlWYa/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+1983-March+2017+1+5+10+Yr+Anom.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="634" data-original-width="916" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjthv0SkqT8cbhda1hSPalIqkiC8MediShXjmq1bJHVV9L7CjZqH6XwniCidfkoFcZ9TEXSXCbkAGbMI6KpPLWMtu32BL4sGqBuCseSYU_ejIU_OGES2xSqZytLmCi5BY6aKiV91o2ZlWYa/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Data+1983-March+2017+1+5+10+Yr+Anom.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Since March 1984, global monthly mean methane has increased by 12.71% or 208.30 ppb. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">While the global monthly mean seems to slow down this month, stations around the Arctic seem to indicate that the acceleration in increases experienced since 2014 continue. Once the 2016 data is verified, then a monthly comparison can be made to see how different the trends might be for each compared to a global monthly mean. For now, a few graphs demonstrate this preliminary finding.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Here Mauna Loa CH4 is substituted as representative of the global trend. The change in the trend in late 2016 into 2017 mimics the global change. However, this is not what is revealed in the Arctic data.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijVDGXHpjcZP0C0wIBOg0kFFVeBYY9DZPpqxwxbdQgSznZmdJxKTyBSWzeRFCTLRSLj6raezTO9XteRiKeA8sTMCACd1OqN1_hSwsTHQuv6avLE86WclCyYBzeaVPJWiobcO3pnPG8miFK/s1600/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division++CH4+MLO+2011-2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="510" data-original-width="690" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijVDGXHpjcZP0C0wIBOg0kFFVeBYY9DZPpqxwxbdQgSznZmdJxKTyBSWzeRFCTLRSLj6raezTO9XteRiKeA8sTMCACd1OqN1_hSwsTHQuv6avLE86WclCyYBzeaVPJWiobcO3pnPG8miFK/s640/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division++CH4+MLO+2011-2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The Barrow CH4 portrays an acceleration of the increase through fall, 2016 and spring, 2017.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9qPDoQC16jLbNHaYl6TtpILm1bBPMIuaT6IEJ9T1VTzyqlV0fhE6SKI1AGTjwb_gKHhqXFgf6qCgSUW9KbF08JLcr5NhtP7QJn5eoDqfuBiMdt5pIDy7oxnnbibbaC7NAYgxFfU3IQTRg/s1600/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division+CH4+BRW+2011-2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="505" data-original-width="684" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9qPDoQC16jLbNHaYl6TtpILm1bBPMIuaT6IEJ9T1VTzyqlV0fhE6SKI1AGTjwb_gKHhqXFgf6qCgSUW9KbF08JLcr5NhtP7QJn5eoDqfuBiMdt5pIDy7oxnnbibbaC7NAYgxFfU3IQTRg/s640/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division+CH4+BRW+2011-2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Similarly, the Alert CH$ readings depict a similar concentration increase.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipDwIExSWhkezpE9h_NZdwCgngdLjBfXQHfX5N7GGsW2tS8XGIg1JEy3AXVdjLmm4UApL_muiiODM-jQeOrJLuCmajZJzK9RjzxerVoPp02LYU1s0xKvDaJXM-NYRI3rg80Qj3PoMX_09q/s1600/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division++CH4+ALT+2011-2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="503" data-original-width="687" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipDwIExSWhkezpE9h_NZdwCgngdLjBfXQHfX5N7GGsW2tS8XGIg1JEy3AXVdjLmm4UApL_muiiODM-jQeOrJLuCmajZJzK9RjzxerVoPp02LYU1s0xKvDaJXM-NYRI3rg80Qj3PoMX_09q/s640/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division++CH4+ALT+2011-2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The Ny Alesund trend remains generally constant from 2014 through 2017 to date.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbJX4RiK66rz-CFjhSkYkmmbv-dIXto23tFZYG6eiAq7nI9sOXp0Gw6iHItqOlG99PPsFJwaLV8KYmWZ8dHSw2teu3E9e0Tr_fGexzvzkiH_A-gLROeQVIQ7XDTJaYu5km3w6ORzNHiABR/s1600/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division++CH4+ZEP+2011-2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="701" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbJX4RiK66rz-CFjhSkYkmmbv-dIXto23tFZYG6eiAq7nI9sOXp0Gw6iHItqOlG99PPsFJwaLV8KYmWZ8dHSw2teu3E9e0Tr_fGexzvzkiH_A-gLROeQVIQ7XDTJaYu5km3w6ORzNHiABR/s640/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division++CH4+ZEP+2011-2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr2wOAfVx5TeR9OiJFXuI7u1D6KSOrIvUxv5_Bx3-P2O8LnxuCCMYbT07ffO8fV64XDTG6vZ7NkUUuE3ZyzIphVbkcjlNyYZ7UIdRBKEpci3W92fRo58HJzRx0p3YFjyRCde3KA2dXNMG6/s1600/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division++CH4+TIK+2011-2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="511" data-original-width="685" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr2wOAfVx5TeR9OiJFXuI7u1D6KSOrIvUxv5_Bx3-P2O8LnxuCCMYbT07ffO8fV64XDTG6vZ7NkUUuE3ZyzIphVbkcjlNyYZ7UIdRBKEpci3W92fRo58HJzRx0p3YFjyRCde3KA2dXNMG6/s640/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division++CH4+TIK+2011-2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Finally, Tiksi also reflects the same accelerating trend from fall, 2016 to spring, 2017.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Given that all the high north latitude stations surrounding the Arctic reflect the same trend change, it seems reasonable to conclude that something is happening to increase CH4 release either in the Arctic Ocean waters, its sea ice cover, or in the permafrost regions in both Russia and North America. Either option presents the possibility of a climate feedback that would be worrisome for the future, if it continues.</span><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-52031170694767389842017-06-30T23:08:00.000-07:002017-06-30T23:08:05.803-07:00Global CO2 Hits New High in March 2017<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The reported NOAA ESRL global CO2 for March, 2017 hit a new record high of 406.05 ppm, which was 2.47 ppm higher than March, 2016.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimNextSljLnH92F9g41cM2aHWUZ-AxrFV2C5qb37oHqTv62z1TmPCvLM2b3qZ9QYSQs-Xceo7zeSdlBnvFAhdS0PnnaGam6SpGe-PF-9CqvhsaHf1LswiC326FYJKYahzGdykQjEof0I_U/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Global+Greenhouse+Gas+CO2+Trend++March+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="701" data-original-width="823" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimNextSljLnH92F9g41cM2aHWUZ-AxrFV2C5qb37oHqTv62z1TmPCvLM2b3qZ9QYSQs-Xceo7zeSdlBnvFAhdS0PnnaGam6SpGe-PF-9CqvhsaHf1LswiC326FYJKYahzGdykQjEof0I_U/s640/ESRL+GMD+Global+Greenhouse+Gas+CO2+Trend++March+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL <a href="https://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html">https://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">This new milestone continues the ongoing increases of atmospheric CO2 that has been reported since 1980. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh29_H-2onemIqIoHQerRjVla2JygTQ25Ok4ykaL6aYiVYISA8nAQ8rd5J_SkI2X38KzFWwVBPrUgMVxKMRr_drldZ0uMpr7aL4thVbEfJwFt9qQzLVI-zACqJ_XVtI785qeJtQSFFFaNdF/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+GLobal+CO2+Monthly+Trend+to+1980+to+March+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="559" data-original-width="854" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh29_H-2onemIqIoHQerRjVla2JygTQ25Ok4ykaL6aYiVYISA8nAQ8rd5J_SkI2X38KzFWwVBPrUgMVxKMRr_drldZ0uMpr7aL4thVbEfJwFt9qQzLVI-zACqJ_XVtI785qeJtQSFFFaNdF/s640/NOAA+ESRL+GLobal+CO2+Monthly+Trend+to+1980+to+March+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL and Apocalypse4Real</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The monthly CO2 increase of 2.47 ppm over March, 2016 was the record 27th consecutive month of increases of at least 2 ppm over the prior year. This reflects the acceleration of atmospheric CO2 increases through the last three years, when human emissions supposedly leveled off. The increase of 2.47 ppm is lower than the blistering 3+ ppm monthly increases every month of 2016.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The 5 year change was 12.52 ppm over March, 2012, which is the record 13th month of five year increases over 12 ppm, a level never reached before March, 2016.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The 10 year global CO2 change was 22.27 ppm higher than March 2006, an unprecedented 9th month above a 22 ppm increase over the same month a decade earlier.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf_byf7UEv7hDNYl8DrVsUSWlsJHxM0klYm1JhwdNyfjW3I7glCc4aWgt9o7aAoe2dN4nyudUjq_3fHTcCaFNH23BbZGE-rBu-ezwp5qL5uTP6h2Xiyjq00Bb1yzvkeNF4iZFFK-qdDe7u/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO+2+1+5+and+10+Year+Monthly+Change+Trend+March+2017+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="854" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf_byf7UEv7hDNYl8DrVsUSWlsJHxM0klYm1JhwdNyfjW3I7glCc4aWgt9o7aAoe2dN4nyudUjq_3fHTcCaFNH23BbZGE-rBu-ezwp5qL5uTP6h2Xiyjq00Bb1yzvkeNF4iZFFK-qdDe7u/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+CO+2+1+5+and+10+Year+Monthly+Change+Trend+March+2017+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL and Apocalypse4Real</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">It is this accelerating achievement of global CO2 milestones that caught my attention this month. If we incorporate Mauna Loa data, beginning in March, 1958, with the global record commencing in January, 1980, the increasing pace of toppling milestones becomes glaringly apparent. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The 5 ppm milestones fall faster, beginning in the 1980's. With the most recent 5 ppm increase occurring in only 22 months, between March, 2015 and January, 2017. Even if a slowdown in the increase occurs, it is not unreasonable to assume that by March, 2019, we will globally surge through 410 ppm.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyDiQN2yd2y5aAA9_LvPmXvevVsQN_xq5SxoaoAXhg2RG8_0Iuw9XPB4t3u4MbGVo3PCK5dci-ZoNZc-FiUzdHyFTIqR96PekEauelUnyjTqLiERolaNXxo0cs8TjasO2ZYpITViIOQ4fw/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+5+ppm+Milestones+1972+to+March+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="854" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyDiQN2yd2y5aAA9_LvPmXvevVsQN_xq5SxoaoAXhg2RG8_0Iuw9XPB4t3u4MbGVo3PCK5dci-ZoNZc-FiUzdHyFTIqR96PekEauelUnyjTqLiERolaNXxo0cs8TjasO2ZYpITViIOQ4fw/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+5+ppm+Milestones+1972+to+March+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL, Apocalypse4Real</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">If one steps back to the increases by 10 ppm, some of the variability smooths out, but the trend of decreasing time frames to each milestone is still a sobering slide. Given the sustained rates of increase, March, 2019 is presumed to be the month we reach 410 ppm globally, and we will have reached that milestone in only 48 months.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7vfUxhRp6odRiLtXdKyS592BCStTgejsAZb20acAuk_7XdtxjAfgNdxVjg8myzVaEVno9nu4-sAgoYCoUvKFaah3yToBmQWiSFIdHJPxqKtc5_PMYuMfJ6pU6FKlkyCNN7ejuvBCVtOKZ/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Global+10+ppm+Milestones+1972+to+March+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="854" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7vfUxhRp6odRiLtXdKyS592BCStTgejsAZb20acAuk_7XdtxjAfgNdxVjg8myzVaEVno9nu4-sAgoYCoUvKFaah3yToBmQWiSFIdHJPxqKtc5_PMYuMfJ6pU6FKlkyCNN7ejuvBCVtOKZ/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Global+10+ppm+Milestones+1972+to+March+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL, Apocalypse4Real</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Here is the historical and estimated data graphed above:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_nHzj_wZobwHXjIogiH9Yrf7Jc01AZG-KQnOx_bg3w-wlv_o1nnl7emBZG0Q0clhSATeo9geplYoJJe6WbIe0nG5VbwnFTJEwbEqHzjRco31w7aVKcEAaVFWr3OVdK3wMkYGvl8Zys4PP/s1600/MLO+%2526+Glbl+monthly+mean+CO2+5+ppm+and+10+ppm+milestones+Feb+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="494" data-original-width="575" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_nHzj_wZobwHXjIogiH9Yrf7Jc01AZG-KQnOx_bg3w-wlv_o1nnl7emBZG0Q0clhSATeo9geplYoJJe6WbIe0nG5VbwnFTJEwbEqHzjRco31w7aVKcEAaVFWr3OVdK3wMkYGvl8Zys4PP/s640/MLO+%2526+Glbl+monthly+mean+CO2+5+ppm+and+10+ppm+milestones+Feb+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">SOURCE: NOAA ESRL, Apocalypse4Real</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">With this historical data in mind, what does this portend for future increases? </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">If we hypothesize that the acceleration from 390 to 400 ppm was an anomaly, and that 60 months better represents the future rate of 10 ppm CO2 increases, we reach 410 ppm by 2020, 470 ppm by 2050 and double CO2 from the pre-industrial levels, reaching 570 ppm by 2100.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">However, if the lower trend rate is assumed, adding another 10 ppm globally every 48 months, we reach 490 ppm by about 2050, and 610 ppm around 2100. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">if we do not control global CO2, and a tipping point is reached that leads to a 36 month 10 ppm increase in CO2 (which was the rate of global </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">CO2</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"> increase during 2016), then the results are deeply troubling. CO2 potentially reaches 520 ppm by 2050, and 690 ppm by about 2100.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Here are the 60 month and 48 month and a 36 month "worst case" trended 10 ppm milestone increases:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEcJ6OzNMyM8IATqXbSfz-TKuIVcN4zyCVwbbFsksvzpMjKMhHYMEqOPtcMmJR5Dfpo97OSP4aavvCXUbt4P2ahQ7TWEG9b_OenQXCu-8pseBRQig3TH8Ra8fqA9Xo6GFU8YXNZvRyp3tf/s1600/Global+CO2+Increase+Rates+60%252C+48%252C+36+to+700+ppm+February+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="393" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEcJ6OzNMyM8IATqXbSfz-TKuIVcN4zyCVwbbFsksvzpMjKMhHYMEqOPtcMmJR5Dfpo97OSP4aavvCXUbt4P2ahQ7TWEG9b_OenQXCu-8pseBRQig3TH8Ra8fqA9Xo6GFU8YXNZvRyp3tf/s1600/Global+CO2+Increase+Rates+60%252C+48%252C+36+to+700+ppm+February+2017.png" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: Apocalypse4Real</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">I am hopeful that steps taken by the international community will slow these trajectories during the next 10 years. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Of course this will not include efforts by the current US administration, who have earned the notorious stigma of making the US a climate pariah state.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Finally, the 406.05 ppm of March, 2017 is 19.62% higher that March, 1980. We are edging closer to a 20% increase in atmospheric CO2 in less than 40 years. The impacts will be felt far into the future.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-58436986505956345562017-05-21T11:02:00.000-07:002017-05-21T11:02:18.486-07:00Global CO2 Record High for February, 2017 and 2016 Annual Growth<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">On May 5th, 2017, NOAA/ESRL released its February, 2017 global carbon dioxide report. It placed the global mean at 405.75 ppm or 2.74 ppm above February, 2016.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYRCiAWdg_FyVFWpe-Nnshzgfy8SUaAzdvOHDg-hKwe-6pk3GWnENxyVv6c2tUh1WLLutoJMgYCwPWeifICc69RnVLIJBvuOYvDYjKHR7jwSul5z3U1ZhjUOmB2z5hyK69ASTGBAn4tOmK/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Global+Greenhouse+Gas+CO2+Trend++Feb+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="540" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYRCiAWdg_FyVFWpe-Nnshzgfy8SUaAzdvOHDg-hKwe-6pk3GWnENxyVv6c2tUh1WLLutoJMgYCwPWeifICc69RnVLIJBvuOYvDYjKHR7jwSul5z3U1ZhjUOmB2z5hyK69ASTGBAn4tOmK/s640/ESRL+GMD+Global+Greenhouse+Gas+CO2+Trend++Feb+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>The Annual Growth Increase Trends</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">NOAA ESRL calculates the annual CO2 growth trend by averaging the December and January readings to mark the average at the end and beginning of a year. This method is helpful, yet it over and under calculates the growth rate versus actual annual mean for each entire year. This results in significant differences between this approach and the actual annual mean for any year compared to prior years. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">This graphic illustrates that difference and how significant it is for 2016. In the following graph, the blue line represents the annual growth rate as depicted on the NOAA ESRL Global Monthly Mean Carbon Dioxide page: <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The red line represents the actual annual growth means for each full year.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGKOVjPT05SoakJ5S2XsN2cdqxSBMbW1JePJuEsribvAcAnRvwzZxQdyOcehPUronFFxwk8qeccyoOf0QOh_6ZVAhxafYXibyx8guBV5yesl_wl8hHYuv1ClOM0JDA9uuv1d4TNd24jGh4/s1600/Global+CO2+Annual+Chg+A4R+NOAA+ESRL+1959-2016+Feb+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGKOVjPT05SoakJ5S2XsN2cdqxSBMbW1JePJuEsribvAcAnRvwzZxQdyOcehPUronFFxwk8qeccyoOf0QOh_6ZVAhxafYXibyx8guBV5yesl_wl8hHYuv1ClOM0JDA9uuv1d4TNd24jGh4/s640/Global+CO2+Annual+Chg+A4R+NOAA+ESRL+1959-2016+Feb+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">While the current NOAA ESRL methodology results in an annual growth of 2.90 ppm over 2015, the actual annual mean data comparing all of 2016 to 2015, results in a whopping 3.44 ppm increase. Both numbers will</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"> change as more samples are added and validated, but it is likely the actual annual mean 2016 CO2 growth rate will remain well above a 3 ppm increase for the first time in modern history.</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The Global CO2 </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Monthly </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Mean Trend</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">This continues the </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">atmospheric </span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">CO2 increase </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">trend</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">observed since the first readings in March, 1958 at Mauna Loa, (MLO) Hawaii. Using the March, 1958 MLO monthly mean as a global proxy, CO2 has increased 90.04 ppm or 28.53%.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The NOAA ERSL global monthly mean data is available beginning in January. 1980. The global mean CO2 has increased by 66.60 ppm since February, 1980 or 19.64%.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhskIGzOeQtRlKamo2-wfncUl6mgfTrzxG09Idm3F7BuIhpdjmErn1QT-v1ongZbUQj2jOAdJKms4qwZv_WCZm-xeHiz3jYrJde5Z7u9IhIO3xWMVW9IYRyze3jUbzD9R-_8EaPcDVNtmRu/s1600/Global+CO2+Mnth+Actual+Trend+Feb+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhskIGzOeQtRlKamo2-wfncUl6mgfTrzxG09Idm3F7BuIhpdjmErn1QT-v1ongZbUQj2jOAdJKms4qwZv_WCZm-xeHiz3jYrJde5Z7u9IhIO3xWMVW9IYRyze3jUbzD9R-_8EaPcDVNtmRu/s640/Global+CO2+Mnth+Actual+Trend+Feb+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">What is less apparent in this depiction is the CO2 increase acceleration since 1958. If we consider the MLO and global mean CO2 record combined, we are achieving 10 ppm "milestone" increases with worrisome acceleration.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>The one, five and 10 year Global CO2 Monthly Mean Increase</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">If one considers the annual, five and ten year </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">global monthly mean </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">change in CO2, those trends are clear. The monthly mean of 405.75 ppm f</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">or February, 2017 </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">was 2.74 ppm higher than 2016, 12.75 ppm higher than 2012, and 22.43 ppm higher than February, 2007. The following graph</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"> depicts these trends.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwgPehGwNkKkMBqNRt-Oiw6juS5WAvs4qbrD2etOYaFPow8frWCer-1mtnau2o2rC-NMyZpH90RGpE4sCq0BTnNUf9O1RundteudJprqZgZQYghzPAFtmVdq3pO4PxAx-CSFCJw7bLsYR8/s1600/Global+CO2+1+5+10+Yr+Chg+A4R+NOAA+ESRL+Feb+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwgPehGwNkKkMBqNRt-Oiw6juS5WAvs4qbrD2etOYaFPow8frWCer-1mtnau2o2rC-NMyZpH90RGpE4sCq0BTnNUf9O1RundteudJprqZgZQYghzPAFtmVdq3pO4PxAx-CSFCJw7bLsYR8/s640/Global+CO2+1+5+10+Yr+Chg+A4R+NOAA+ESRL+Feb+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Time Required to Reach Five and 10 ppm "Milestone" is Shortening</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">However, if one considers how quickly we achieve milestones of either 5 or 10 ppm increases in global CO2, the trends towards shorter times to reach each is apparent and concerning. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Reaching 10 ppm Increase "Milestones"</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">For example, MLO passed 320 ppm in May, 1960. It took 12 years or 144 months to reach 330 ppm in May, 1972. Globally, we reached 340 ppm eight years later, in May, 1980. It took only seven years to reach 350 ppm, in 1987. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Moreover, from 1995 to 2017, we have observed an increase of 10 ppm about every 60 months or five years. However this rate has accelerated through time. Currently we are on track to conservatively increase </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">global </span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">CO2 from 400 to 410 ppm in 48 months - </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">four years or </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">less. More on potential future increases later.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsuVwA4aAg-2yMemgStEzo-nLmtkKCIhHI2ULR_XENMUy1UK7tPllyYz2s_uMuls2vamTHMsvnLNOw926Hs3YixibQP5n9_qLqwgA7m4KtzAILLHj406krbLz3WbrWSQJ8BXnQFv9vCNbi/s1600/Global+CO2+Mnth+10+ppm+Milestones+Feb+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsuVwA4aAg-2yMemgStEzo-nLmtkKCIhHI2ULR_XENMUy1UK7tPllyYz2s_uMuls2vamTHMsvnLNOw926Hs3YixibQP5n9_qLqwgA7m4KtzAILLHj406krbLz3WbrWSQJ8BXnQFv9vCNbi/s640/Global+CO2+Mnth+10+ppm+Milestones+Feb+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Reaching 5 ppm Increase "Milestones"</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">If we consider how quickly we reach 5 ppm increases, the trend is even more apparent. While MLO went from 315 to 320 ppm in a mere 26 months from 1958 to 1960, it took 84 months to increase to 325 ppm, from May 1960 to May 1967. That shortened to 60 months to go from 325 to 330 ppm, by May 1972. That time frame decreased again to 47 months to increase from 340 to 345 ppm, by April 1984. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">What is of real concern is that since 1995, every increase of 5 ppm has taken less that 36 months - three years. <b><i>The last increase in 5 ppm, from 400 to 405 ppm,</i></b> <i><b>took only 22 months.</b></i> That is the shortest time for any </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">global monthly mean </span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">5 ppm increase. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">With this acceleration, even with allowance for the slowdown in CO2 increases after an El Nino effect has ended, one can conservatively estimate that we will hit 410 ppm by March, 2019, only 48 months since blowing through 400 ppm. Some trace gas monitoring stations have already measured readings well above 410 ppm in the Arctic, and MLO has had daily readings above 410 ppm this year for the first time.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbDtckTLh9fsPT_C2ZDU5Q-oD598b08O4LS_vTzXLLdSCRb5vFkYAK7D5KG3fmqn13ZRo31vOpY0r-yyzLIOH_mjNHRahhRR3aAwD3a06jYMukTgUliuImmmoVQ6OloKzfx1e0yIMW9ZnF/s1600/Global+CO2+Mnth+5+ppm+Milestones+Feb+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbDtckTLh9fsPT_C2ZDU5Q-oD598b08O4LS_vTzXLLdSCRb5vFkYAK7D5KG3fmqn13ZRo31vOpY0r-yyzLIOH_mjNHRahhRR3aAwD3a06jYMukTgUliuImmmoVQ6OloKzfx1e0yIMW9ZnF/s640/Global+CO2+Mnth+5+ppm+Milestones+Feb+2017.png" width="640" /></a><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Here is the full table from NOAA ESRL Mean Monthly MLO and Global CO2 "milestones."</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicA1l2gM2gTY-CnFckhBoe_Pl40DUdotw1pyIupRJmOKpkEZVbSWciqKzNw_vYGld0-V9ZZ-rmHqmdK1Ea73A-Ck8I65137Lwhzn0mlDM1SqNdu2QQ_1BxxyEzVRP43NCzUXLdEnPz1APq/s1600/MLO+%2526+Glbl+monthly+mean+CO2+5+ppm+and+10+ppm+milestones+Feb+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="548" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicA1l2gM2gTY-CnFckhBoe_Pl40DUdotw1pyIupRJmOKpkEZVbSWciqKzNw_vYGld0-V9ZZ-rmHqmdK1Ea73A-Ck8I65137Lwhzn0mlDM1SqNdu2QQ_1BxxyEzVRP43NCzUXLdEnPz1APq/s640/MLO+%2526+Glbl+monthly+mean+CO2+5+ppm+and+10+ppm+milestones+Feb+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: Apocalypse4Real, NOAA ESRL</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>What Have We Gotten Ourselves Into?</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">After looking at how we continue to experience accelerating global CO2 monthly means, and how we are shortening the time frames to achieve each one, here is a simple set of hypothetical projections based upon various rates of hitting future 10 ppm milestones.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The first (left table) assumes a return to a lower rate of increase, a 60 month, or five year time frame for each 10 ppm "milestone". </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The second (middle table) captures the current rate we seem to be moving towards, a 10 ppm increase every 48 months, or four years. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">However, the change of 2016 from 2015 was a rate that would see us meet a 10 ppm increase every 36 months or so, about every three years. The right table depicts that rate of change.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">These are like making a choice between poisons for our global community, slow or fast acting. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn63u0sh6HKO8XACeccI9kp3adwoh3mvnz56iGRroXyFl7QdKvmp902Z9GW2XPsMQ1aVthOwbsDTMCSMOPD20SyaK1fwXwihobvD1nzLmW23C67ZddduNCMRzxcbfLhHlycQhOMtxX5SNb/s1600/Global+CO2+Increase+Rates+60%252C+48%252C+36+to+700+ppm+February+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn63u0sh6HKO8XACeccI9kp3adwoh3mvnz56iGRroXyFl7QdKvmp902Z9GW2XPsMQ1aVthOwbsDTMCSMOPD20SyaK1fwXwihobvD1nzLmW23C67ZddduNCMRzxcbfLhHlycQhOMtxX5SNb/s1600/Global+CO2+Increase+Rates+60%252C+48%252C+36+to+700+ppm+February+2017.png" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: Apocalypse4Real</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">If we revert to a 60 month increase for each 10 ppm, we double CO2 to 560 ppm from</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"> the pre-industrial concentration of 280 ppm </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">by the end of the century, about the year 2095. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">If we move to a 48 month increase rate, we hit that doubling, 560 ppm, by 2079. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">If we continue to experience CO2 increases from human sources and natural feed backs, and drop to a 36 month time frame for each 10 ppm increase, we hit 560 ppm by 2063. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">This is what is at stake for the future generations, a warmer and more at risk world. Perhaps we should not call these "milestones" but "millstones."</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The real problem? This is only CO2. The real picture for all trace gases has us way beyond the Paris Agreement today. That is for a future post.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-87448325114218583352017-03-28T21:24:00.001-07:002017-03-28T21:24:07.815-07:00The Writing on the Wall - A Response to the White Hourse Energy Executive Order<br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Today's "</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Presidential Executive Order on Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth" issued by the White House, is a fascinating and troubling read. While presumably rolling back policies of the previous administration, it also guts the US capability to make progress in meeting its commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement or responding at a policy level to climate change. </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Even if the U.S. does not officially withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord, it is clear from this Executive Order that there is no intention in seriously meeting our commitments in emissions reductions.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">For the Executive Order, see: <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/03/28/presidential-executive-order-promoting-energy-independence-and-economi-1">https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/03/28/presidential-executive-order-promoting-energy-independence-and-economi-1</a></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Three actions are most troubling. </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">First is the removal of the final guidance to Federal entities and bodies in considering climate change impacts in their activities. See Section 3, c. </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;">The 34 page document being revoked is the "</span><span style="color: #333333; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">"Final Guidance for Federal Departments and Agencies on Consideration of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Effects of Climate Change in National Environmental Policy Act Reviews," and found at </span><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.16px;"><a href="https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/08/f33/nepa_final_ghg_guidance.pdf">https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/08/f33/nepa_final_ghg_guidance.pdf</a></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The second concern is the obliteration of rules relating to Oil and Natural Gas production including waste disposal as detailed in Section 7, Here it is in its entirety:</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Sec. 7. Review of Regulations Related to United States Oil and Gas Development. (a) The Administrator shall review the final rule entitled "Oil and Natural Gas Sector: Emission Standards for New, Reconstructed, and Modified Sources," 81 Fed. Reg. 35824 (June 3, 2016), and any rules and guidance issued pursuant to it, for consistency with the policy set forth in section 1 of this order and, if appropriate, shall, as soon as practicable, suspend, revise, or rescind the guidance, or publish for notice and comment proposed rules suspending, revising, or rescinding those rules. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">(b) The Secretary of the Interior shall review the following final rules, and any rules and guidance issued pursuant to them, for consistency with the policy set forth in section 1 of this order and, if appropriate, shall, as soon as practicable, suspend, revise, or rescind the guidance, or publish for notice and comment proposed rules suspending, revising, or rescinding those rules: </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">(i) The final rule entitled "Oil and Gas; Hydraulic Fracturing on Federal and Indian Lands," 80 Fed. Reg. 16128 (March 26, 2015);</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">(ii) The final rule entitled "General Provisions and Non-Federal Oil and Gas Rights," 81 Fed. Reg. 77972 (November 4, 2016);</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">(iii) The final rule entitled "Management of Non Federal Oil and Gas Rights," 81 Fed. Reg. 79948 (November 14, 2016); and</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">(iv) The final rule entitled "Waste Prevention, Production Subject to Royalties, and Resource Conservation," 81 Fed. Reg. 83008 (November 18, 2016).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The third, and greatest concern is the utter disregard for climate change impacts on U.S. national security. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">In the Executive Order, it states, in <span style="color: #333333; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">Section. 3. "Rescission of Certain Energy and Climate-Related Presidential and Regulatory Actions." </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">(a) The following Presidential actions are hereby revoked: </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.16px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.16px;">(iv) The Presidential Memorandum of September 21, 2016 (Climate Change and National Security)." This previous memorandum can be found at: </span></span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.16px;"><a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/21/presidential-memorandum-climate-change-and-national-security">https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/21/presidential-memorandum-climate-change-and-national-security</a></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.16px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">I find it ironic that a new administration that presumably has made national security a priority would revoke a previous Presidential Action that helped to specifically accomplish that goal. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The previous action, now revoked, states that part of its policy implementation purpose was to partially implement, "<span style="color: #333333; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">the 2015 National Security Strategy, which identified climate change as an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources like food and water. It added that increased sea levels and storm surges threaten coastal regions, infrastructure, and property, which in turn threatens the global economy, and compounds the growing costs of preparing and restoring infrastructure"</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; letter-spacing: 0.16px;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.16px;">The body created to coordinate US national security efforts in response to climate change was t</span></span><span style="color: #333333; letter-spacing: 0.16px;">he Climate and National Security Working Group. Its key functions were</span></span><br />
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(i) identify the U.S. national security priorities that are within the scope of the Working Group's mission;</div>
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(ii) develop recommendations for requirements for climate and social science data and intelligence analyses, as appropriate, that support national security interests;</div>
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(iii) catalog climate science data, intelligence analyses, and other products and programs that support or should be considered in the development of national security doctrine, policy, and plans. This catalogue shall include climate and social science data repositories and analytical platforms; climate modeling, simulation, and projection capabilities; and information-sharing tools and resources supporting climate risk analyses and assessments, such as the Climate Data Initiative, the Climate Resilience Toolkit, the Global Change Information System, and the National Climate Assessment;</div>
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(iv) identify information and program gaps that limit consideration of climate change-related impacts in developing national security doctrine, policies, and plans. Descriptions of these gaps will be provided to Federal science agencies and the United States Intelligence Community to inform future research requirements and priorities, including collection priorities, on climate data, models, simulations, and projections;</div>
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(v) facilitate the production and exchange of climate data and information with relevant stakeholders, including the United States Intelligence Community, and private sector partners, as appropriate;</div>
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(vi) produce, as appropriate, and make available science-informed intelligence assessments to agencies having responsibilities in the development of national security doctrine, policies, and plans in order to identify climate change-related impacts and prioritize actions related thereto;</div>
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(vii) establish, by consensus, guidance for Working Group members on coordinating, sharing, and exchanging climate science data among the members, and with the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC);</div>
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(viii) provide a venue for enhancing the understanding of the links between climate change-related impacts and national security interests and discussing the opportunities for climate mitigation and adaptation activities to address national security issues;</div>
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(ix) work to improve the Federal Government's capability and capacity to characterize greenhouse gas sources and sinks accurately at sub-continental scales;</div>
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(x) in coordination with the NSTC, recommend research guidelines concerning the Federal Government's ability to detect climate intervention activities;</div>
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(xi) develop, by consensus, guidance for Working Group members on building climate resilience in countries vulnerable to climate change-related impacts;</div>
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(xii) provide information and Working Group-related progress updates to the Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience, established by Executive Order 13653, Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change, on a quarterly basis;</div>
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(xiii) take into account defined requirements and current capabilities described in subsection (4)(c)(ii) and (iii) of this memorandum to facilitate the consideration of climate change-related impacts into national security doctrine, policies, and plans. The Working Group shall develop recommended climate data requirements and consider the cost of the production and exchange of this information, and making this information available;</div>
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(xiv) have classified and unclassified capabilities, as required and appropriate, to consolidate and make available climate change-related impact information, intelligence analyses, and assessments for access and use by Working Group member agencies;</div>
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(xv) identify the most current information on regional, country, and geographic areas most vulnerable to current and projected impacts of climate variability in the near- (current to 10 years), mid- (10 to 30 years), and long- (more than 30 years) term, in order to support assessments of national security implications of climate change, and identify areas most vulnerable to these impacts during these timeframes;</div>
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(xvi) develop recommendations for the Secretary of State to help ensure that the work of U.S. embassies, including their planning processes, are better informed by relevant climate change-related analyses; and</div>
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(xvii) coordinate on the development of quantitative models, predictive mapping products, and forecasts to anticipate the various pathways through which climate change may affect public health as an issue of national security.</div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">It is items iv, vi, xii, xv and xvi that bring the most concern. The new executive order is seemingly taking a Cromwellian approach to key information that would support the administration's efforts of making "America Great Again," and protect American interests and citizens for the long term future.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">We are left being blinded, bound in ignorance, and tossed adrift at the governmental level at a time that climate change is accelerating, destabilizing larger segments of global society, and decimating capabilities crucial to our current and future national security interests.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">By this Executive Order, our president is setting us up for - and participating in - the writing on the wall. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
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<b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">"The
Writing On The Wall"<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Alter
Bridge: The Last hero<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Don't tell us this is normal<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Don't tell us there's no change<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">So selfish and immoral, you're to
blame<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">'Cause you're the great disrupter<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">So crass and out of line<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Now tell me who will suffer for all
your crimes?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">We are running out of time<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Out of time<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">And the writing's on the wall<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">That the end will begin<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Still you do nothing at all<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">And keep denying the greatest sin<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Ignore the truth and follow<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Reap all that you sow<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Spawn the future sorrow, we will know<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Refusing every warning<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Deny the rate of change<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The ignorance is swarming, what a
shame<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">And you know that you're to blame<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">You're to blame<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">And the writing's on the wall<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">That the end will begin<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Still you do nothing at all<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Throwing lies to the wind<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">And the writing's on the wall<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">So I say it again<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Still you do nothing at all<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">And keep denying the greatest sin<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">You're the one to blame<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">For this rate of change<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">No tomorrow<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">When will you see?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">And the writing's on the wall<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">That the end will begin<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Still you do nothing at all<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Throwing lies to the wind<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">And the writing's on the wall<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">So I say it again<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Still you do nothing at all<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">And keep denying the greatest sin<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The greatest sin<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Deny it again<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">When will it end?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<img src="https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/15/26/0f/15260f7aab7568e0c04a2a8254228bf7.jpg" /></div>
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Source: </div>
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<a href="https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/15/26/0f/15260f7aab7568e0c04a2a8254228bf7.jpg">https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/15/26/0f/15260f7aab7568e0c04a2a8254228bf7.jpg</a></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-50897965534426079102017-03-12T17:10:00.003-07:002017-03-12T17:10:40.602-07:00CO2 Above 410 ppm at Some Locations in 2016, Near 420 ppm in 2017<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Recently, some media sources are reporting on the approach of Mauna Loa CO2 approaching or passing 410 ppm in 2017. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">For example, Digital Journal reported on March 10, "<span style="font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: -0.05pt;">In the next few
weeks, carbon dioxide is expected to pass the 410 ppm mark on a daily basis at
the Mauna Loa Observatory, something we have never experienced." </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: -0.05pt;">Source: </span><span style="color: #003399; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/environment/carbon-dioxide-rates-close-to-breaching-the-410-ppm-threshold/article/487650#ixzz4b8wHj9YP" style="font-size: 12pt;">http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/environment/carbon-dioxide-rates-close-to-breaching-the-410-ppm-threshold/article/487650#ixzz4b8wHj9YP</a></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">While it is true that MLO has not passed 410 ppm in the past, it is helpful to note that this benchmark has already been exceeded elsewhere.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The reality is that 30 monitoring stations exceeded daily readings of 410 ppm by June, 2016. The locations marked with yellow stars below are those who passed that point by that month.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXbb59tPp4-F7IJf3raN5-JxRkjLMgPr9weFMbG7acUDPf-zxUjYPR5jPLOdxvBw4CD1PMkBlTv1MPuQxanxiv2nc4otOTTSAPqiA7FQiSFjKE3MZnsN21qwJfuVeQ0f3-h7y0deW1gChC/s1600/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division+Active+GHG+Sites+June+2016+-+410%252B+ppm+061816.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXbb59tPp4-F7IJf3raN5-JxRkjLMgPr9weFMbG7acUDPf-zxUjYPR5jPLOdxvBw4CD1PMkBlTv1MPuQxanxiv2nc4otOTTSAPqiA7FQiSFjKE3MZnsN21qwJfuVeQ0f3-h7y0deW1gChC/s640/ESRL+Global+Monitoring+Division+Active+GHG+Sites+June+2016+-+410%252B+ppm+061816.jpg" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL Active Data Viewer and Station Data <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv</a>/</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">What is more concerning is how many stations have reported preliminary readings above 415 and in one case almost 420 ppm.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">For example, Barrow, Alaska has two preliminary readings above 420 ppm, that if not determined to be from a local source, will be a significant jump in CO2 concentration at that location.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyk52WJat8FL3hc62ZGutgAA5ZwNM-j9_TXnSjCyG8RVTapvBv_g-zQVBIsKFbqjMFHmlk9J-9AIDn2QZ5TIfQiM-DQVOruuwXqmTPc_Jup10WgjHF89nxwKwT2OYRbOzuU0Ip-RzOkP1D/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Barrow+CO2+Dec+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyk52WJat8FL3hc62ZGutgAA5ZwNM-j9_TXnSjCyG8RVTapvBv_g-zQVBIsKFbqjMFHmlk9J-9AIDn2QZ5TIfQiM-DQVOruuwXqmTPc_Jup10WgjHF89nxwKwT2OYRbOzuU0Ip-RzOkP1D/s640/ESRL+GMD+Barrow+CO2+Dec+2016.png" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Cold Bay, Alaska had numerous readings above 410 ppm through 2016. and may approach 415 ppm this year.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_4VmtJhm8nu-y-F0o3UrKo11U28gMrS-95ZqDJwCA8VrRtq1sFULZdbSu1haV8X2EE0tkhdLeGnJ3Lf3kni3pfjt9cByOkB_dmyGcVdzvES3fT9C0_BR8ym4bm30vwItXhTc25wVkLnJP/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Cold+Bay+AK+CO2+Dec+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_4VmtJhm8nu-y-F0o3UrKo11U28gMrS-95ZqDJwCA8VrRtq1sFULZdbSu1haV8X2EE0tkhdLeGnJ3Lf3kni3pfjt9cByOkB_dmyGcVdzvES3fT9C0_BR8ym4bm30vwItXhTc25wVkLnJP/s640/ESRL+GMD+Cold+Bay+AK+CO2+Dec+2016.png" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Ny-Alesund Svalbard has readings above 415 ppm in early 2017, which is not the peak of its CO2 cycle.<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgAiStDV3CbUxPj_fgcQSkkR6o17cIsa7P9F2ObglwVJ_52g_h3_yQQQZqD2qd1r2tGxZKPXppeNgJ9Mkoi6xy1SORdF9zTvlFanen-2iHio4-xi4Nd6gJ_Jbm5rsHSebtVGzvQ8A4ebRR/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Ny+Aslund+CO2+Dec+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgAiStDV3CbUxPj_fgcQSkkR6o17cIsa7P9F2ObglwVJ_52g_h3_yQQQZqD2qd1r2tGxZKPXppeNgJ9Mkoi6xy1SORdF9zTvlFanen-2iHio4-xi4Nd6gJ_Jbm5rsHSebtVGzvQ8A4ebRR/s640/ESRL+GMD+Ny+Aslund+CO2+Dec+2016.png" width="640" /></a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"> Further south, Iceland has already recorded preliminary CO2 above 410 ppm in 2017.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPyNeUF5ZN6VxKqH1eus82OX1XrZ1gKsIhkyYp2NcGET7W3IffeutCoAzGWw2GPeVWJFLWnG89YMqgtQHxfxe2S6ctmg65QHEJigFLeeXUqjDo4a1C2wMX32o0JYu5tDCc3TCz4ZXZ-SeG/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Storhofdi+Iceland+CO2+Dec+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="470" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPyNeUF5ZN6VxKqH1eus82OX1XrZ1gKsIhkyYp2NcGET7W3IffeutCoAzGWw2GPeVWJFLWnG89YMqgtQHxfxe2S6ctmg65QHEJigFLeeXUqjDo4a1C2wMX32o0JYu5tDCc3TCz4ZXZ-SeG/s640/ESRL+GMD+Storhofdi+Iceland+CO2+Dec+2016.png" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Finally, Tiksi, Russia has preliminary readings just shy of 420 ppm, and those will likely go higher later this spring if previous years represent a pattern for its increase in the next few months.</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiemyNPWzd4bOP4ei-z3Vz28hDOq7iyCN4W_gBdDsIqaw03wyXeFt37i-kuomVHn1KfqIxChTuz0_RjoKrX39c8rsFuknUPpDvmCzb7d5WUS3_E2p0F05QlTcOEx0iYrkS47ctF_u-eQ26n/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Tiksi+Russia+CO2+Dec+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiemyNPWzd4bOP4ei-z3Vz28hDOq7iyCN4W_gBdDsIqaw03wyXeFt37i-kuomVHn1KfqIxChTuz0_RjoKrX39c8rsFuknUPpDvmCzb7d5WUS3_E2p0F05QlTcOEx0iYrkS47ctF_u-eQ26n/s640/ESRL+GMD+Tiksi+Russia+CO2+Dec+2016.png" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">While Mauna Loa is important as the longest running CO2 concentration reporting site, it is not the first to pass 410 ppm. That was done last year in numerous locations. It is just catching up.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-34983495198374364142017-03-12T12:49:00.000-07:002017-03-12T12:49:11.635-07:00Global CO2 December 2016 - A New Record Annual Increase<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">NOAA ESRL issued its December, 2016 Global CO2 report on March 5th. It supplied another sobering benchmark to those coming in rapid succession during the last three years.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">For December, 2016, ESRL reported a preliminary global CO2 of 404.70 ppm, or 3.27 ppm above December, 2015.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIbYMa8lfpVUprT44r2EGwVlgDlztPivpVWB7eRl3VpCGwcfwM0q6oSOFbuOwGivmnFs406S61G4gA_S4k_PSLTPYvQSgK4wyc6tW7Uxx_4QxV7HtHtRQ0_ajoJ_0_-Gulhg8hPn6_Zx_N/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Global+CO2+December+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="538" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIbYMa8lfpVUprT44r2EGwVlgDlztPivpVWB7eRl3VpCGwcfwM0q6oSOFbuOwGivmnFs406S61G4gA_S4k_PSLTPYvQSgK4wyc6tW7Uxx_4QxV7HtHtRQ0_ajoJ_0_-Gulhg8hPn6_Zx_N/s640/ESRL+GMD+Global+CO2+December+2016.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL GMD <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">The monthly global trend, observed since 1980, depicts the accelerating</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"> rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZG_tcXtd4J2co7HRCW4g0qQt-89v6I_PjG9p8kKM9UVOLyHJ8HMong4rHE9G1KjQIwE4tlE-YvzLOWvnzt6wJA84LKx4whKIfQnr8B9mryMOYBdSVPf7KRTnU7Nq-cedaCOg3Lyx6KEB6/s1600/Global+CO2+Monthly+Trend+December+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZG_tcXtd4J2co7HRCW4g0qQt-89v6I_PjG9p8kKM9UVOLyHJ8HMong4rHE9G1KjQIwE4tlE-YvzLOWvnzt6wJA84LKx4whKIfQnr8B9mryMOYBdSVPf7KRTnU7Nq-cedaCOg3Lyx6KEB6/s640/Global+CO2+Monthly+Trend+December+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Data Source: NOAA ESRL <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">This is the 12th consecutive month with global CO2 year to year monthly increases above 3 ppm, which is unprecedented since Keeling began measuring CO2 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii in March, 1958.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv404oOLl9yCG0u0OksqWVSTJeBip2pW7G9iQ1qI5SKDWmy01uHyFiFemAsNdmdiYqXW4JN-tZEQp9xLXYqYlekOtJ88hprw8Cqxo6bVkOmOBD6Vl1rfKVV6X56vPaY90fyrPYtH_vtOJM/s1600/Global+CO2+Monthly+Change+Trend+1+5+and+10+years+December+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv404oOLl9yCG0u0OksqWVSTJeBip2pW7G9iQ1qI5SKDWmy01uHyFiFemAsNdmdiYqXW4JN-tZEQp9xLXYqYlekOtJ88hprw8Cqxo6bVkOmOBD6Vl1rfKVV6X56vPaY90fyrPYtH_vtOJM/s640/Global+CO2+Monthly+Change+Trend+1+5+and+10+years+December+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Data Source: <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Year to Year Monthly CO2 Increases</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The December, 2016 CO2 concentration of 404.70 ppm is another record high for the month, and is 3.27 ppm higher than 2015. This is off the El Nino fueled peak change of 3.81 ppm recorded in July, 2016. While it is likely that this rate of change will decline below 3 ppm in 2017, it seems very unlikely that it will drop below 2 ppm during 2017. December, 2016 is the 24th month of year to year CO2 increases above 2 ppm. The last month with a global CO2 monthly increase below 2 ppm was January, 2015.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The year to year monthly increases continue to accelerate as the trend line above indicates. What is most troubling is that this growth is not following a linear trend but a polynomial increase through time.</span></div>
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<b style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">Five Year Monthly CO2 Increases</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">December, 2016 saw a five year increase in monthly CO2 of 12.86 ppm over December, 2011. This is only slightly below the 12.96 ppm five year change recorded in August, 2016. December is the 10th consecutive month of five year CO2 increases above 12 ppm, another unprecedented rise in global CO2, and far above its accelerating trend line. We have not experienced a five year monthly increase below 10 ppm since March, 2013, and it is unlikely we ever will again.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"><b>10 Year Monthly CO2 Increases</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The December, 2016 CO2 concentration is 22.52 ppm higher than December, 2006. This is another all time record increase, and the 6th consecutive month with an increase above 22 ppm. We have not experienced a 10 year monthly increase below 20 ppm since October, 2012, and it is very doubtful we ever will again. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>The 2016 Global Annual Mean CO2 Increase</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">According to NOAA ESRL, the annual mean 2016 global carbon dioxide growth rate is anticipated to be 3.16 ppm over 2015. Given their methodology is based on the average of December and January of the next year (2017), this seems conservative. If the December, 2016 monthly increase is 3.27 ppm, then this seems based upon an expectation that January's increase will be well under 3 ppm to meet the preliminary growth rate. Time will tell.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">However, if one uses the average of monthly increases of CO2 for 2016, then the annual increase for 2016 is 3.47 ppm over 2015. It seems more likely that the NOAA ESRL annual change will move higher once the January data is available.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKPU4KQYYfLWgheA1q7C-bnnHO61qbiQSwwJz3xCGue3PJ5n_bO3g3Zmg0-Y6xiwdyuTVtF-KQTk9-FcFCvToSJA_reWZlH0im0__WACGUIwwgFuZaXjydAJRjmC_liFg015Dh8qNFSSn1/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Annual+CO2+Increase+to+December+2016+1959-+2016+E.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKPU4KQYYfLWgheA1q7C-bnnHO61qbiQSwwJz3xCGue3PJ5n_bO3g3Zmg0-Y6xiwdyuTVtF-KQTk9-FcFCvToSJA_reWZlH0im0__WACGUIwwgFuZaXjydAJRjmC_liFg015Dh8qNFSSn1/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Annual+CO2+Increase+to+December+2016+1959-+2016+E.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">NOAA ESRL Data Source: </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html#global_growth">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html#global_growth</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">With the final adjustments to the annual change, it can be anticipated that 2016 will be the first year that the NOAA ESRL global CO2 concentration will experience an annual increase of more than 3 ppm. This is not good news for our world. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">According to the Global Carbon Project, human global CO2 emissions practically flat-lined for 2013-2016. Source for the following: <a href="http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/carbonbudget/2016/">http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/carbonbudget/2016/</a></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-NjcJqpEoNvjnoUREIgC-LquADO5BorYjka21mJF4HTprL6W8cl90zET0UlowkjSA-c4Chlj4jGl6Ns0y7if7d5WAQCdc9TqOHeZ094mnk-XFj3_p0SQTvFsL2wF6XjMy_lcGDu7kn7sc/s1600/Global+Carbon+Project+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-NjcJqpEoNvjnoUREIgC-LquADO5BorYjka21mJF4HTprL6W8cl90zET0UlowkjSA-c4Chlj4jGl6Ns0y7if7d5WAQCdc9TqOHeZ094mnk-XFj3_p0SQTvFsL2wF6XjMy_lcGDu7kn7sc/s640/Global+Carbon+Project+2016.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Yet, we experienced continued high CO2 concentration increases during these years. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The GCP position is that these concentration increases are due to declines in CO2 sink effectiveness, caused by drought and higher temperatures. These CO2 increases hold us closer to the RCP 8.5 scenario, where it is perilous for humanity to tread.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0CXFw56vVxrDDbO2s0KxJRxPOKAQ0U1JOv2NU6KCP18B76WJeOOVoKpcEBwvYuQPY9JONyhN7gLc9CFH4b1NIjtAIEm_q8HF24doMR4bGStbVmYOujs3srq4lZ1so48PoYMh1o91SrQHO/s1600/Global+Carbon+Project+2016+2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0CXFw56vVxrDDbO2s0KxJRxPOKAQ0U1JOv2NU6KCP18B76WJeOOVoKpcEBwvYuQPY9JONyhN7gLc9CFH4b1NIjtAIEm_q8HF24doMR4bGStbVmYOujs3srq4lZ1so48PoYMh1o91SrQHO/s640/Global+Carbon+Project+2016+2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">As Peter Tans commented in regard to the record 2016 Mauna Loa CO2 concentration announcement, <span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; letter-spacing: 0.6px;">“The </span><a href="https://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html" style="background-color: white; border-bottom-color: rgb(10, 69, 149); border-bottom-style: dotted; border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; border-width: 0px 0px 1px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0a4595; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; letter-spacing: 0.6px; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; transition: all, 0.3s; vertical-align: baseline;">rate of CO<span style="border: 0px; bottom: -0.25em; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">2</span> growth</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; letter-spacing: 0.6px;"> over the last decade is 100 to 200 times faster than what the Earth experienced during the transition from the last Ice Age,” Tans said. “This is a real shock to the atmosphere.”</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: <a href="http://www.noaa.gov/news/carbon-dioxide-levels-rose-at-record-pace-for-2nd-straight-year">http://www.noaa.gov/news/carbon-dioxide-levels-rose-at-record-pace-for-2nd-straight-year</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">If true for Mauna Loa's CO2 data, how much more a real concern for the entire planet.</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-34676077650522142352017-02-14T05:36:00.003-08:002017-02-14T05:36:54.208-08:00La Nina Over - El Nino Coming in 2017?<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">After the massive El Nino ended in 2016, it was speculated that La Nina would follow - and it did. However, it was not a very strong one. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Most months it barely met the criteria of -.5 C Sea Surface Temperature anomaly in the East Central Pacific (ENSO 3.4) and it was short.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz6TenhsMLAUgWxzyRbtot8SHBqmu7mFn54QHeNOdKWo9C6XD_5ucmsg1x3tORqOhICHh1x9oWZzENq7npONUN7pEfUW9AhE3a5fZJFX5GzUvBctFT0sSP54ycFvaVImh3rddG4pVEYd_d/s1600/NOAA+NCDC+nino-regions.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz6TenhsMLAUgWxzyRbtot8SHBqmu7mFn54QHeNOdKWo9C6XD_5ucmsg1x3tORqOhICHh1x9oWZzENq7npONUN7pEfUW9AhE3a5fZJFX5GzUvBctFT0sSP54ycFvaVImh3rddG4pVEYd_d/s640/NOAA+NCDC+nino-regions.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA NCDC</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">As NOAA stated in its February 9, 2017 blog post, </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">"</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">This La Niña wasn’t exactly one for the record books."</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxVOGzfFHhbBcmqV6368UwbpPAa8x2ELm5WDDuDPuDw_kgxOZzSBJpCSN_NQ7Law3tv-hWcjdi8t2mEojeSV4wHRDUS06JWT4bWeLa5DCCxZFT5liTINz95rUlWWNwapiUfUsVPBgLpudk/s1600/NOAA+NinoIndex3.4_1240+Febraury+9+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxVOGzfFHhbBcmqV6368UwbpPAa8x2ELm5WDDuDPuDw_kgxOZzSBJpCSN_NQ7Law3tv-hWcjdi8t2mEojeSV4wHRDUS06JWT4bWeLa5DCCxZFT5liTINz95rUlWWNwapiUfUsVPBgLpudk/s640/NOAA+NinoIndex3.4_1240+Febraury+9+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: </span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2017-enso-update-bye-bye-la-ni%C3%B1a">https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2017-enso-update-bye-bye-la-ni%C3%B1a</a></span><br />
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The La Nina was powered by below average subsurface temperatures of the central and eastern Pacific. However, that pool has begun to warm.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk343q2CM20V0aRIUB9nKy9ZghrT8-X08ABaJ7TpGhNlQssPfAGryAYiOBTaZ3rDZcWLPJHY6uuQLYbhVOd1ACbeaKZIyHVhl03OAyCRjiSkd_VBYW8LZxdXowGdmK4AToz_Cv8pgl29Ew/s1600/NOAA+ENSO_FebEDD_HeatContent_+February+9+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk343q2CM20V0aRIUB9nKy9ZghrT8-X08ABaJ7TpGhNlQssPfAGryAYiOBTaZ3rDZcWLPJHY6uuQLYbhVOd1ACbeaKZIyHVhl03OAyCRjiSkd_VBYW8LZxdXowGdmK4AToz_Cv8pgl29Ew/s640/NOAA+ENSO_FebEDD_HeatContent_+February+9+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2017-enso-update-bye-bye-la-ni%C3%B1a">https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2017-enso-update-bye-bye-la-ni%C3%B1a</a></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">El Nino Coming?</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">What is forecasted next depends on who is doing the ENSO modeling. CPC/IRI is expecting ENSO neutral through the summer of 2017.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;">However, NOAA has stated, "</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">The bottom line is that we’re giving the odds of developing El Niño conditions a slight edge for fall 2017, with the </span><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml" id="anch_34" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #003366; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">probability around 50%</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">. The baseline chance of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions occurring in the fall of any random year are about 33% each. Our </span><a class="confirmation" href="http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume" id="anch_35" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #003366; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">current consensus forecast</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> for the September—November 2017 period estimates a 12% chance of La Niña conditions, 40% chance of neutral conditions, and a 48% chance of El Niño."</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">Source: </span><span style="color: #333333;"><a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2017-enso-update-bye-bye-la-ni%C3%B1a">https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2017-enso-update-bye-bye-la-ni%C3%B1a</a></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUAZ6A2xNdHDR0s3vbgssCNPc4_0_U0pzY3ph0nDQwiZNjbE_vkrJmrMiHmJLVco16SidOdJ-ej-3jz4eq0lRHR5WztK465yiKw6Vlnf9KSKl7oYcAVBpCWSh9WgVI9tsUIm4fJ3KoLqRP/s1600/ENSO+Forecast+CPC+IRI+Feb+9+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUAZ6A2xNdHDR0s3vbgssCNPc4_0_U0pzY3ph0nDQwiZNjbE_vkrJmrMiHmJLVco16SidOdJ-ej-3jz4eq0lRHR5WztK465yiKw6Vlnf9KSKl7oYcAVBpCWSh9WgVI9tsUIm4fJ3KoLqRP/s640/ENSO+Forecast+CPC+IRI+Feb+9+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: CPC/IRI </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">However it may be stronger sooner than the consensus assumes.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast shows a quick jump into a minimal El Nino conditions by early summer, 2017. If it does occur, it will be another troubling impact on the global climate system suffering bouts of drought and flood enhanced by climate change.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL0tYwlVk_KIUrhKYjJ7uWeXMrdFyHdyFUp2mve0HYVaAqoU2V5HiH_AQMYWwLhMA5DV8_iOnTDU4VsFvzAhJmHcV7DWRrzTZy2qbNccgCKbulYwWw7WKCum5HViudEnoqa_TpQdhwePaV/s1600/ENSO+Forecast+CFSv2+Nino3-4+SSTA+Forecast+Feb+9+2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL0tYwlVk_KIUrhKYjJ7uWeXMrdFyHdyFUp2mve0HYVaAqoU2V5HiH_AQMYWwLhMA5DV8_iOnTDU4VsFvzAhJmHcV7DWRrzTZy2qbNccgCKbulYwWw7WKCum5HViudEnoqa_TpQdhwePaV/s640/ENSO+Forecast+CFSv2+Nino3-4+SSTA+Forecast+Feb+9+2017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA CPC ENSO Assessment Weekly Update February 9, 2017</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-90874565989619027072017-01-29T10:37:00.000-08:002017-01-29T10:37:43.245-08:00Global CH4 Mean for October, 2016 Tops the Chart<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">On January 5, 2017, NOAA ESRL published the preliminary October, 2016 global methane mean - a new high of 1849.7 ppb. It banged the top of the chart, with the highest recorded CH4 since July, 1983.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyG8hIciW7UWxLnfAhAK8YlxTV1iFZmDI_yqRcxkVdOyC61hoeVeL5dhz5klRFLh7iY6AyUFE0JdkG_zj5tgv1e2YRw6kGC3rynPfy1tpCqNN_9uY_tUtNdYP-7KOZP7EI1KZaVXbBbohz/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+for+October+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="604" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyG8hIciW7UWxLnfAhAK8YlxTV1iFZmDI_yqRcxkVdOyC61hoeVeL5dhz5klRFLh7iY6AyUFE0JdkG_zj5tgv1e2YRw6kGC3rynPfy1tpCqNN_9uY_tUtNdYP-7KOZP7EI1KZaVXbBbohz/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+for+October+2016.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA ESRL <a href="https://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/">https://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">This methane mean is almost 225 ppb or 14% higher in concentration since NOAA ESRL records began.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOEotsFjeZrPdPaqf1hmcW0eOULNUtkL1rdyL765JJdASwO6lhyphenhyphenaM1jeKGBdMq9SKFB1Rj2u-JdpJGlDp-snTg-WzcZRQlA_5nDieHRX3upFjnCKASl-xGkKW7jI8ktwO7oagPkCr9BGZ1/s1600/Global+CH4+Monthly+Trend+July+1983-October+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOEotsFjeZrPdPaqf1hmcW0eOULNUtkL1rdyL765JJdASwO6lhyphenhyphenaM1jeKGBdMq9SKFB1Rj2u-JdpJGlDp-snTg-WzcZRQlA_5nDieHRX3upFjnCKASl-xGkKW7jI8ktwO7oagPkCr9BGZ1/s640/Global+CH4+Monthly+Trend+July+1983-October+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">This new high is 8.8 ppb over October, 2015, and represents another milestone in the </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">increasing rate of methane release which began accelerating in February, 2007, the last month in which year to year CH4 change was negative compared to the prior year.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The five and ten year increases in global methane mean by month, illustrate the continual acceleration of cumulative long term change.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOk4jpL5D9wUjUor-SsLmq4XhiEnCS76vOvg3HSFOUYlxfe1RTzDK2LZEcsLhRMo3yWIUQcIkp9pN89pVE0Rwt_MPv7EP5rA3BvQyF_Z5_L2T_AvMEkQZt_wY68fj_4yuYzjEBW_2XTE6Y/s1600/Global+CH4+Monthly+1+Yr+5+Yr+and+10+Year+Trends+1983-Oct+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOk4jpL5D9wUjUor-SsLmq4XhiEnCS76vOvg3HSFOUYlxfe1RTzDK2LZEcsLhRMo3yWIUQcIkp9pN89pVE0Rwt_MPv7EP5rA3BvQyF_Z5_L2T_AvMEkQZt_wY68fj_4yuYzjEBW_2XTE6Y/s640/Global+CH4+Monthly+1+Yr+5+Yr+and+10+Year+Trends+1983-Oct+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The 5 year difference in global mean methane was 40 ppb in October 2016 compared to 2011. This high a difference is comparable to March, 1994 compared to 1989.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The ten year difference is again at a monthly record high, a ten year difference of 71.8 ppb which has not been observed since April, 1999.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Any impact caused by ENSO change is not obvious in October, 2016, since La Nina deepened slightly, but the CH4 global annual mean change increased rather than declined.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0Q5-3POqlzuD6eKuaWic14zwfQmN4_LgJkxrM38TWbQ5UP1QAo2vP1LgfMtWRY7gHQTWQHg2RuwCDv-jaBfRf1nAjNDhIxW3hDIEujF_q6N-gjuJ-ilB072Sp68hz4KTRGz7UdLkTzcIu/s1600/Global+Monthly+CH4+Mean+1+Yr+Chg+vs+ENSO+Oct+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0Q5-3POqlzuD6eKuaWic14zwfQmN4_LgJkxrM38TWbQ5UP1QAo2vP1LgfMtWRY7gHQTWQHg2RuwCDv-jaBfRf1nAjNDhIxW3hDIEujF_q6N-gjuJ-ilB072Sp68hz4KTRGz7UdLkTzcIu/s640/Global+Monthly+CH4+Mean+1+Yr+Chg+vs+ENSO+Oct+2016.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">We again seem to be on track for another year of high increases of CH4, and while it has been argued in recent literature that the main reasons for increase are rainfall in the tropics and rice cultivation, there seems to be more that may be driving the methane increase. More on that in another post.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-13914681447798686792017-01-03T12:06:00.000-08:002017-01-03T12:06:12.534-08:00Global CH4 Highest Recorded for any September <span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The NOAA/ESRL global methane (CH4) run a month behind those released for carbon dioxide (CO2). </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">The global methane for September, 2016 was released on December 5th. The global monthly mean was 1843.7 ppb, an increase over September, 2015 of 8.2 ppb.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrUT3rciqQ9YIN5wQgUKgCS4MMaVCqBEz_MAhLusYgm8LniKjtZ37dvHpTpN6vV2beLCwcam3kGEVFr5ktJznHeXSVsTqCLhsYoXxrcUSgdkeTPQFiKJ83RuTYUSEoFArIt-e3L2DqhpLb/s1600/ESRL+GMD+CH4+for+September+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="556" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrUT3rciqQ9YIN5wQgUKgCS4MMaVCqBEz_MAhLusYgm8LniKjtZ37dvHpTpN6vV2beLCwcam3kGEVFr5ktJznHeXSVsTqCLhsYoXxrcUSgdkeTPQFiKJ83RuTYUSEoFArIt-e3L2DqhpLb/s640/ESRL+GMD+CH4+for+September+2016.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: NOAA/ESRL <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">This makes it the highest global mean methane for any September on record since 1983.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsuXDy5uaZwUKR-E3eqEQLSo1sC0uwF4VQeyBG1RVSS6UB2y999uwO7YyvEsL1ZiRhO6l9eFmYmedcNr2KWCUSQkTVo5cs-v_wnufYCOamrkaP_LZ2OJInwXP1xfUI6vOT6_XeEhPacyVS/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Trend+1983+to+Sept+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsuXDy5uaZwUKR-E3eqEQLSo1sC0uwF4VQeyBG1RVSS6UB2y999uwO7YyvEsL1ZiRhO6l9eFmYmedcNr2KWCUSQkTVo5cs-v_wnufYCOamrkaP_LZ2OJInwXP1xfUI6vOT6_XeEhPacyVS/s640/NOAA+ESRL+CH4+Trend+1983+to+Sept+2016.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">What continues is the strengthening trend of the accelerating increase of change over the previous 5 and 10 years compared to September, 2016. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi4DFFj2LcpM2ytWP2bYwESOEbZ7dhuzETcNM_dQfN4HQ-jG6NJU6kk1Fb5Cly36Hl-yVxAtmc950Ss923AxAJb7N0I2VU1ScXRZEEFfeM28o4TUKaa4_e9w80kY0WcNacpaH2ivBzPw-b/s1600/Global+CH4+Monthly+1+Yr+5+Yr+and+10+Year+Trends+1983-Sept+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi4DFFj2LcpM2ytWP2bYwESOEbZ7dhuzETcNM_dQfN4HQ-jG6NJU6kk1Fb5Cly36Hl-yVxAtmc950Ss923AxAJb7N0I2VU1ScXRZEEFfeM28o4TUKaa4_e9w80kY0WcNacpaH2ivBzPw-b/s640/Global+CH4+Monthly+1+Yr+5+Yr+and+10+Year+Trends+1983-Sept+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The blue line above represents the monthly mean global CH4 change compared to one year before. The red line represents the monthly mean global change compared to five years before, and the green is the monthly mean methane change compared to the same month ten years prior.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">This graph plainly illustrates the increase in methane emissions since the end of 2006 and especially their unprecedented jump from April, 2014 till September, 2016.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">This increase in methane is even more concerning with the publication of a new paper. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">"</span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing" by</span></span><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="white-space: nowrap;"> M. Erminan, </span><span style="white-space: nowrap;">G. Myhre, </span><span style="white-space: nowrap;">E. J. Highwood, and </span><span style="white-space: nowrap;">K. P. Shine, </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span class="article-header__meta-info-label" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; display: inline; margin: 0px 0.357em 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">First published:</span><time class="article-header__meta-info-data" datetime="2016-12-27" id="first-published-date" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; margin: 0px 1em 0px 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">27 December 2016 in Geophysical Research Letters, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071930/full">http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL071930/full</a></time></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">They find that methane radiative forcing has been underestimated by 23% and that, "<span style="background-color: white;">The GWP for the 100 year time horizon, the most commonly used metric, increases from 28 to 32." The result is significantly higher Wm-2 impacts for future global temperature modeling.</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEBAfreTR8Xp_R4P-e83p3ZzPQQXKbP6DlH5hBosdOve5uVQWhUKEcP4LAwqOuqzKRUvIsbWLWlKGLfdDL3N-GPrv257_z6fnT6WOKi9uaHxCrdFYknilYMFOHMJPeGAQtYcTfOHKQQv_C/s1600/Etminan+GRL+CH4+Radiative+Forcing+grl55302-fig-0003.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEBAfreTR8Xp_R4P-e83p3ZzPQQXKbP6DlH5hBosdOve5uVQWhUKEcP4LAwqOuqzKRUvIsbWLWlKGLfdDL3N-GPrv257_z6fnT6WOKi9uaHxCrdFYknilYMFOHMJPeGAQtYcTfOHKQQv_C/s640/Etminan+GRL+CH4+Radiative+Forcing+grl55302-fig-0003.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">The October, 2016 NOAA/ESRL global mean methane should be released in the next few days.</span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-2730424247000929892017-01-02T20:37:00.002-08:002017-01-02T20:37:36.808-08:00Is There a Relationship Between Global CO2 Increase and El Nino? Yes and No<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">A number of recent articles, papers and forums have stated there is a direct relationship between strong a El Nino and higher year to year CO2 ppm rates of change. I've looked, but not found a piece that directly builds the relationship, so this post attempts to explore that relationship.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">A recent blog post demonstrated the trend in the monthly global CO2 increases as one, five and ten year comparisons, through October, 2016. It was created using the NOAA/ESRL monthly global CO2 data.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg28Gglutf3hYll1c5VMXlgt2RZYZR-Sb7FnzohapAek-eeSpMHsJo0qGX_TZrblUewwD5oL7cBWeEFHQjQa9e5xhSm8HmCSQJKJ6vKhkDL_HB0btlo27QZ7Xuv816Y4IlR5ifXf0JBHuLk/s1600/Global+CO2+Monthly+Change+Trend+1+5+and+10+years+October+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg28Gglutf3hYll1c5VMXlgt2RZYZR-Sb7FnzohapAek-eeSpMHsJo0qGX_TZrblUewwD5oL7cBWeEFHQjQa9e5xhSm8HmCSQJKJ6vKhkDL_HB0btlo27QZ7Xuv816Y4IlR5ifXf0JBHuLk/s640/Global+CO2+Monthly+Change+Trend+1+5+and+10+years+October+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">What was needed to explore the relationship with El Nino or La Nina was the SST anomalies.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Curious about the relationship between ENSO 3.4 sea surface temperatures (El Nino or La Nina), I pulled the monthly ERSSTv4 (centered base periods) Niño 3.4 (5<sup>o </sup>North-5<sup>o </sup>South) (170-120<sup>o </sup>West)) that is used to provide the monthly input to the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWMH4n-PU4aylKAKUxt1Fe30qi4EVoU4zBdjhxhIljtMQv-hQnLPQBHdoyEsKSuKA4cRlWFglNEDbXE0JYktoPhFEO0ifG-j7TI0KEnc1isqsvnp5bZiS6wnLYEYg1wa-gsNEdtMBoZjt0/s1600/NOAA+CPC+NCEP+ENSO+ONI+081516.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWMH4n-PU4aylKAKUxt1Fe30qi4EVoU4zBdjhxhIljtMQv-hQnLPQBHdoyEsKSuKA4cRlWFglNEDbXE0JYktoPhFEO0ifG-j7TI0KEnc1isqsvnp5bZiS6wnLYEYg1wa-gsNEdtMBoZjt0/s640/NOAA+CPC+NCEP+ENSO+ONI+081516.png" width="572" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">For the SST ENSO explanation see: </span><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/" style="font-family: "trebuchet ms", sans-serif;">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/</a><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">For the data see: <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt">http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The detailed comparison follows, but first the chart:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFQKqf1r4Is3jDRbd-2btWdqY8ZJ-AStsZoBAB_4XIac6L1Se2SoEVdI9h_5zRNb9vhLW0p2bKkku2ujfjGXc1f_jB7ePPL0PGGQcCjGewiTecrLhYnJBqkIVxwNFZmzOzcgCIHWZJY7xh/s1600/Global+CO2+and+ENSO+3.4+October+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFQKqf1r4Is3jDRbd-2btWdqY8ZJ-AStsZoBAB_4XIac6L1Se2SoEVdI9h_5zRNb9vhLW0p2bKkku2ujfjGXc1f_jB7ePPL0PGGQcCjGewiTecrLhYnJBqkIVxwNFZmzOzcgCIHWZJY7xh/s640/Global+CO2+and+ENSO+3.4+October+2016.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The red line above represents the climate base adjusted ENSO 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies from January 1981 to October 2016. </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The blue line is the monthly NOAA/ESRL CO2 change compared to prior year for the same month. The added trend lines reflect the increasing rise in CO2 emissions change and demonstrate that the ENSO 3.4 temperatures seemed to decline slightly from 1981-2016, due to lower SST anomaly peaks after 1997-1998 and before 2015-2016.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">What is apparent from the image, is that some El Nino events are followed by spikes in CO2 emissions, but not all. There are some CO2 increases that are not related to an El Nino event. That is a serious concern.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Now the details in chronological order focused on El NIno events and the potential relationships with increases or declines of CO2 change rates during or after the El Nino.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>El Nino: May, 1982 to June, 1983</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">This El Nino peaked in December, 1982, with a very strong sea surface temperature anomaly of 2.21 C above the base. It was followed 8 months later, in August, 1983, with a spike in the yr/yr CO2 increase of 2.51 ppm.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>El Nino: September, 1986 to January, 1988</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">This El Nino peaked in September, 1987 with a strong SST anomaly of 1.66 C above the base. The CO2 peak came five months later when the CO2 over prior year was 2.96 ppm higher than prior year. Moreover, this was the longest run of CO2 increases of more than 2 ppm, until 2002-2004. Seventeen months, from December 1987 to April, 1989 experienced these unprecedented increases up to that date.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>El Nino: October, 1991 to June, 1992</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">This El Nino peaked at 1.65 C above its base climatology in January, 1992. What make this event interesting is that there is no corresponding spike in CO2. In fact, CO2 yr/yr increases had dropped below 1 ppm over prior year beginning in October, 1991 and did not rise above that level again until December, 1993. This is generally attributed to drop in CO2 emissions brought about by the end of the Soviet Union and accompanying industrial output declines in Russia and Eastern Europe.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>El Nino conditions October, 1994 to February, 1995</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">While too short a period to meet the official description of El Nino, this increase in SST anomalies peaked in December, 1994 at 1.14 C above the base. </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms", sans-serif;">Four months, from September to December, 1995 witnessed CO2 monthly increases over 2 ppm. These did not spike </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms", sans-serif;">till 10 months after the peak SST anomaly, in October, 1995 when the CO2 increase hit 2.16 ppm above prior year. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>No El Nino, but a CO2 spike, June to August, 1996</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">What does not fit the El Nino driven CO2 increase model is that after a brief decline in early 1996, the increases over previous year jumped to 2.59 ppm in July, 1996. This peak was followed by a decline in CO2 increase below 1 ppm during June to September, 1997.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>El Nino: May, 1997 to May, 1998</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The 1997-1998 El Nino was the strongest since 1877-1878. It produced a SST anomaly spike of 2.32 C above the base climatological SSTs in November, 1997. This El Nino was followed by a CO2 yr/yr spike of 3.59 ppm ten months later, in September, 1998. The run of CO2 increases over 2 ppm per month continued from April, 1998 to June, 1999. For the first time, three of those months were over 3 ppm compared to the prior year, those of August to October, 1998.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Although this El Nino was followed by a extended strong La Nina, only one month, June, 2000 dropped below 1 ppm (.98).</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><b>El Nino: June, 2002 to February, 2003</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Any effects of La Nina potentially slowing a CO2 increase seem to have been overcome by other factors for by February, 2001, the CO2 increase compared to prior year was again running above 1.5 ppm.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">When the El Nino started in June, 2002, it pushed the CO2 yr/yr change over 2 ppm by August, 2002. For the next 21 months, CO2 monthly increases remained about 2 ppm, until April, 2004, even though this El Nino ended in nine months, in February, 2003.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The 2002 El Nino peaked in Novmber, at 1.26 C above the base, however the CO2 increases did not peak until seven months later, in June 2003, at 2.84 ppm over prior year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>El Nino: July, 2004 to March, 2005</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">The 2004 El Nino continued for nine months, peaking at .78 C in January, 2005. This very mild El Nino led to an almost 15 month stretch of CO2 increases about 2 ppm per month. The CO2 increase peak occurred 14 month later, in February, 2006, with a 2.63 ppm jump over prior year. The last month with a 2 ppm increase associated with this El Nino was July, 2006.However, after this, only one month experienced less than a 1.5 ppm increase until the next increases of 2 ppm or above commenced.</span></div>
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<b style="font-family: "trebuchet ms", sans-serif;">El Nino conditions September, 2006 to January, 2007</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">While this stretch of El Nino-like SST anomalies was too short to qualify as a true El Nino, it may have been enough to nudge CO2 yr/yr increases back over 2 ppm. The El Nino temps peaked in December, 2006 at 1.02 C, however, the CO2 increases over 2 ppm do not start until eight months later, in September, 2007. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">It seems outside the range of plausibility, but the peak CO2 increase with this El Nino temperature run does not come until 19 months later, in July, 2008, during the La Nina of August, 2007 to June, 2008. This La Nina, which peaked at -1.38 C in January, 2008, may have contributed to the CO2 yr/yr increase decline to a low of .89 ppm nineteen months later, in August, 2009.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;"><b>El Nino: September, 2009 to April, 2010</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">This El Nino ran for eight months, peaking at 1.36 C in January, 2010. It pushed CO2 yr/yr increases back above 2 ppm commencing in April, 2010 and continuing for almost 15 months, till June, 2011. The CO2 increases peaked eight months after the El Nino temperatures, similar to some of the previous events. In September, 2010 it hit 2.79 ppm over prior year.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">This El Nino was followed by two La Ninas. The first from July, 2010 to April, 2011 only dropped CO2 increases back to 1.56 ppm in September, 2011. This event occurred during the second La Nina, which ran from August, 2011 to February, 2012 when there was a one month drop to 1.69 ppm yr/yr increase in June 2012, seven months after the lowest SST anomaly in the 2011-2012 La Nina event.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;"><b>The CO2 Anomaly: Major increases - with no El Nino </b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">While SST anomalies returned to ENSO neutral in March, 2010 and would remain in that state until October, 2014, there was an anomalous increase in CO2 emissions without the strong El Nino that it should "normally" have been associated with.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">From August, 2012 through February, 2014, the monthly yr/yr CO2 emissions increased over 2 ppm each month. During this 19 month period, from June to August 2013, they increased more than 3 ppm per month, peaking at 3.47 ppm in July, 2013. The only other times this level of CO2 increase was observed was in association with the 1997-1998 and the April, 2015 to May, 2016 El Ninos. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">Two contributing factors to the unprecedented rise may have been drought and forest fires, or increasing economic growth, but exploring those reasons is outside this posting.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;"><b>El Nino: April, 2015 to May, 2016</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">Prior to the return of El Nino, SST anomaly temperatures in November, 2014 to January, 2015, popped CO2 yr/yr emissions changes back over 2 ppm. Since January, 2015, no month has gone below a 2 ppm yr/yr increase in CO2 levels. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">The most recent El Nino started in April, 2015 and peaked in January, 2016 with a SST anomaly of 2.33 C. This very strong El Nino pushed monthly yr/yr CO2 increases over 3 ppm in January, 2016, and they may have peaked in October, 2016 with a 3.71 ppm increase over prior year. These monthly increases above 3 ppm still continue as of October, 2016.</span></div>
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<b style="font-family: "trebuchet ms", sans-serif;">Conclusions</b></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">While there are plenty of examples of an El Nino SST anomaly from 1981 to present with a delayed associated increase in CO2 yr/yr change, there are also events that are anomalous. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">Especially troubling is the capability for CO2 increases to occur without an El Nino as a precursor condition as seen from August, 2012 to February, 2014. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">Of even more concern is that we have continued to experience yr/yr increases at higher rates. Even with a mild La Nina or ENSO neutral conditions, given the yr/yr increases above 3 ppm for so many months after the most recent El Nino, it seems less likely that we will see a drop below a 2 ppm rate in the near future.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: trebuchet ms, sans-serif;">Despite human CO2 emissions leveling for the last three years, we may now be entering a state where natural feedbacks are driving future CO2 yr/yr and overall ppm increase. That is a tipping point we need to avoid.</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-532902184894096258.post-88776412770787786052016-12-29T10:08:00.000-08:002016-12-29T10:08:52.424-08:00Global CO2: October 2016 Hits a Record Monthly High and All-Time Increase <br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Global CO2 hits new record monthly high during October, 2016 and record year to year and ten year monthly increases.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Monthly Global CO2 Change</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">On December 5, NOAA/ESRL released the global monthly CO2 average for October, 2016. It set a new record high for the month of 402.31 ppm. Compared to 2015's 398.60 ppm, the one year change was an increase of 3.71 ppm. This reading may adjust for some months into 2017, but not enough to make it a less sobering sign that human and natural impacts on CO2 levels continue to push us toward climate changes that increase the possibility of cascading feedbacks.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The 3.71 ppm increase is the highest monthly jump over the same month in the prior year <i><b>for any monthly comparison in the NOAA/ESRL observations. </b></i>It beat out August-October, 1998, June to August, 2013, and every month of 2016 which each had a year to year increase over 3 ppm.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCvjA2_g6jL-BKdpNf11foNXRlgiJ7OthZvbHK0dYYKFt7_x6JOg-DypHrxPZzaoifGsEdKEsnLiEQ1IT29Wy_StNrl5alGVhdy9UgjbEQUJxZYQz04Qi141n4O0jZLNUMA_G-bonB9GAz/s1600/ESRL+GMD+Global+CO2+October+2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="545" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCvjA2_g6jL-BKdpNf11foNXRlgiJ7OthZvbHK0dYYKFt7_x6JOg-DypHrxPZzaoifGsEdKEsnLiEQ1IT29Wy_StNrl5alGVhdy9UgjbEQUJxZYQz04Qi141n4O0jZLNUMA_G-bonB9GAz/s640/ESRL+GMD+Global+CO2+October+2016.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Source: <i style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333;">Ed Dlugokencky and Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/) </i>NOAA/ESRL GMD, <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The monthly CO2 trend since January 1980, portrays the increasing rise through the years, passing 340 ppm in May, 1980, 360 ppm in January 1995, piercing 380 ppm in April, 2005, and smashing through 400 ppm in March, 2015.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFoS8DYBHwVKLw2qdltwWGJOP2xALC0AF67pzDzAWZ2B467ddcSyaHmfkTYjAjUEir2DvjrG-v5yuoG5uBOXmQlqFeObR6o11kTzKagP1_vC6VQ6NunnxDooCgvSaK7HjQpvR3In0u7XkJ/s1600/Global+CO2+Monthly+Trend+October+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFoS8DYBHwVKLw2qdltwWGJOP2xALC0AF67pzDzAWZ2B467ddcSyaHmfkTYjAjUEir2DvjrG-v5yuoG5uBOXmQlqFeObR6o11kTzKagP1_vC6VQ6NunnxDooCgvSaK7HjQpvR3In0u7XkJ/s640/Global+CO2+Monthly+Trend+October+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">What is troubling is that this trend of 20 ppm markers is coming with slowly increasing frequency. There are also troubling hints, that acceleration of the CO2 increase may be occurring in the natural system in addition to human emissions. We may not know how much natural emission rates may be increasing for several months into 2017, until the recent El Nino impacts on the carbon cycle subside.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">One way to illustrate these accelerating monthly increases is to compare, not only the monthly increase to the prior year, but also over the five year and ten year periods. In other words, the CO2 increase between October, 2016 to the same month in 2011 and then 2006. The following graphic illustrates those changes.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYrpZX_y_8C8Mi_viGPA9wnTMGErA2Gm4XbiUJ-jpKUGEaMYDLxMvFkiJJfh0A3o13kc8pERzjVIPU39vLOI5XNZ0nWM-ac78inu0VfbnK6DZ0Gk0JH7ufxB0lQ-6J8PrzX5ad7r1pAoo4/s1600/Global+CO2+Monthly+Change+Trend+1+5+and+10+years+October+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYrpZX_y_8C8Mi_viGPA9wnTMGErA2Gm4XbiUJ-jpKUGEaMYDLxMvFkiJJfh0A3o13kc8pERzjVIPU39vLOI5XNZ0nWM-ac78inu0VfbnK6DZ0Gk0JH7ufxB0lQ-6J8PrzX5ad7r1pAoo4/s640/Global+CO2+Monthly+Change+Trend+1+5+and+10+years+October+2016+NOAA+ESRL+A4R.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The bottom (blue) line is the monthly change in CO2 ppm from the prior year. The middle (red) line is the change of any month compared to the same month five years earlier. The top (green) line is the monthly CO2 compared to ten years before.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The year to year monthly change reflects peaks that have often occurred as a delayed response to El Nino conditions, however that may be changing in a worrying way. However, that is a topic for another post. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The five year monthly change reveals a more apparent accelerating growth in atmospheric CO2. In September and October, 2002 we experienced the first two months with a five year increase of more than 10 ppm. from May, 2005 to April, 2008 we experienced 32 of 35 months with changes of more than 10 ppm over the same months five years before. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Commencing with February, 2013 we have not experienced a month with less than 10 ppm change from five years before. In fact, we witnessed the first months above an 11 ppm change during July to September, 2014. We returned to changes of more than 11 ppm in December, 2015, and have not dropped below since. What is more troubling is that beginning in March, 2016, we have experienced more than a 12 ppm change over the same month 5 years before.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The ten year change started with a high, 15.94 ppm change in January, 1990 compared to January, 1980. That would remain the highest 10 year change until it was tied in December 2001, and broken in March, 2002 when we exceeded 16 ppm for the first time. Increases in the ten year change rate came in quick succession passing 17 ppm in September, 2002, 18 ppm in May, 2003, and 19 ppm in January, 2006.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">The first ten year increase above 20 ppm occurred in September, 2007. Since October, 2012, we have not gone below a 20 ppm change compared to ten years before. We are now experiencing another acceleration, passing through 21 ppm change for the first time in December, 2015 and smashing through 22 ppm in August, 2016.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">In summary, we have hit the highest one year global CO2 change in October, 2016, of 3.71 ppm. We hit the highest five year change of 12.83 ppm in August, 2016, and stand at the highest ten year change of 22.47 ppm in October, 2016.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><b>Tracking Annual Change</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">NOAA/ESRL summarizes global CO2 change as annual growth rates. It uses a methodology that compares the December/January average to that of the prior year. That is depicted in the first column in the following table. Additionally, another methodology that could be used is to average the monthly change for all months in a given year. This does depict the annual change differently but captures the average of growth rate changes within a particular year.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Here is the table for comparison, and then a chart.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 192px;">
<colgroup><col span="3" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="40" style="height: 30.0pt;">
<td height="40" style="height: 30.0pt; width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Year</span></td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">ESRL CO2</span></td>
<td class="xl65" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Yr Avg of Chg</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1959</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.96</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1960</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.71</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1961</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.78</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1962</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.56</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1963</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.57</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1964</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.49</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1965</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.10</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1966</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.10</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1967</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.61</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1968</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.99</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1969</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.32</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1970</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.13</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1971</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.73</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1972</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.47</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1973</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.46</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1974</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.68</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1975</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.23</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1976</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.97</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1977</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.92</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1978</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.29</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1979</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.14</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1980</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.71</span></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1981</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.15</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.19</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1982</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.00</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.77</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1983</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.84</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.67</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1984</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.24</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.55</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1985</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.63</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.47</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1986</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.03</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.42</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1987</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.69</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.74</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1988</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.25</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.53</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1989</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.38</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.64</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1990</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.18</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.18</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1991</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.73</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.33</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1992</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.70</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.70</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1993</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.22</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">0.72</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1994</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.68</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.49</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1995</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.95</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.82</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1996</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.07</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.77</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1997</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.98</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.12</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1998</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.81</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.65</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1999</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.34</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.08</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2000</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.25</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.18</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2001</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.83</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.60</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2002</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.38</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.01</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2003</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.28</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.54</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2004</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.56</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.82</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2005</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.43</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.03</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2006</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.77</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.12</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2007</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.09</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.74</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2008</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.78</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.10</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2009</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.62</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.51</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2010</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.44</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.28</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2011</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.69</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.88</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2012</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.35</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.01</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2013</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.47</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.74</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2014</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.99</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">1.93</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td align="right" height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2015</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.98</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">2.29</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="20" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl67" height="20" style="height: 15pt; text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">E 2016</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">3.63</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">3.49</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbMHvFTOgcrBFTEgOhLn0yFULtCtnkmVAqOFHMQ7VcmCtpn9NJDZdaFekKqbG4UK4_ktl1J_9BoLNrKkNBDJYldnyiFbm3sdmsgTDx3rCaaPvw7R7KYEQOrgxuIOgmKQfNoZPINMbWzfhG/s1600/NOAA+ESRL+Annual+CO2+Increase+1959-2016+E.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbMHvFTOgcrBFTEgOhLn0yFULtCtnkmVAqOFHMQ7VcmCtpn9NJDZdaFekKqbG4UK4_ktl1J_9BoLNrKkNBDJYldnyiFbm3sdmsgTDx3rCaaPvw7R7KYEQOrgxuIOgmKQfNoZPINMbWzfhG/s640/NOAA+ESRL+Annual+CO2+Increase+1959-2016+E.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">In the chart above, the blue line represents the NOAA/ESRL annual change. While the media initially portrayed 2015 as the first year above a 3 ppm annual change, in the end, that was not the case, with the final growth rate of 2.98 ppm.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">In 2016, tearing through </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">an annual growth rate</span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;"> of </span><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif;">3 ppm will not even be in question. What is troubling is how large a jump we will experience.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Using the NOAA/ESRL methdology of two months averaged compared to the prior year, on a September/October basis we will see an estimated 3.63 ppm annual growth rate. Using the annual average of increases approach, it is estimated to be 3.49 ppm. In reality, these numbers are conservative, since November, 2016 through January, 2017 will have higher concentrations given the annual cycle. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Given that impact, the NOAA/ESRL annual growth rate has a good probability of being above 3.7 ppm for 2016. We will know for sure in a few months.</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0