The UK Storm, February 7-8, 2014

The storm heading in the UK is really wound up. The OSU Polarmet model portrays it as a 940 mb low pressure center February 8, 2014 at 0600 GMT.

See http://polarmet.osu.edu

This pressure gradient is very visible on the magicseaweed.com global surface level pressure image for Feb 7 2014.

The winds and surface pressures produce significant swell and waves that are forecast to have major sea heights of up to 44 feet offshore in the North Atlantic for 020814 0000Z.

See: http://magicseaweed.com/World-Surf-Chart/64/

The Earth Wind surface wind map for Feb 7 2014 is also very impressive, with the wind being drawn across the Atlantic into the storm center.

See http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-21.38,57.86,537

The center point moves over the UK on Feb 8 2014, while the surface wind speeds drop due to interaction with land, yet the UK forecast is for 80 mph winds in some areas.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-3.96,68.23,617

The GFS model actual forecast for February 8 2014, shows the Siberian cold still streaming across the CAB into the Canadian Arctic and impacting anomalies all the way into the U.S. Note the warmer are flow from the Bering into eastern Siberia, an airflow that is perhaps curtailing the growth of Arctic sea ice in the area. The Arctic is still warmer overall, with a 4C anomaly for this date.

See: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/index_gfcst.php

It is likely that the UK will continue to experience these storms as long as the jet stream and steering currents create this very strong flow across the Atlantic. Here is the current Climate Reanalyzer 250 mb jet stream.

More on steering currents and the jet stream mangle in the next post.

METOP/IASI Satellite Monitors China's Trace Gases - Global CH4 Measurement Supported

The area of interest for this blog is tracking methane globally, and the use of satellite and ground station data to do so. The two main sources of satellite methane data are the AIRS and METOP/IASI satellite instruments.

One fundamental question has been whether the satellite data collection was reliable at low levels in the atmosphere. A recent paper indicates that this is a valid assumption. 

As reported in phys.org, a team from "the Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (CNRS / UPMC / UVSQ) in collaboration with Belgian researchers and with support from CNES, using measurements by the IASI infrared sounder launched on board the MetOp satellite. Their groundbreaking results are published online on the website of the journal Geophysical Research Letters dated 17 January 2014."
See: http://phys.org/news/2014-01-infrared-satellite-peak-pollution-episodes.html

 

What they tracked, from December 2012 and into January 2013, was the trace gas pollution around Beijing and the North China plain, including the main air pollutants: sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), particulate matter, ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Credit: © Anne Boynard (LATMOS-IPSL, CNRS / UPMC / UVSQ)

What the researchers and the paper indicate is that the METOP/IASI sounder is "contrary to expectations, the IASI sounder is able to detect plumes of pollutants even near ground level as long as two conditions are met: weather conditions must be stable, which leads to a build-up of pollutants at ground level, and there must be a significant temperature difference between the ground and the air just above the Earth's surface. In January 2013, IASI measured very high concentrations of anthropogenic pollutants such as CO, SO2, ammonia (NH₃) and ammonium sulfate aerosols over Beijing and neighboring cities. The IASI infrared sounder thus proves to be well suited to monitoring these pollutants in such conditions."

Spatial distributions of CO and SO2 measured by the IASI/MetOp sounder over China on 12 January 2013. Credit: © Anne Boynard (LATMOS-IPSL, CNRS / UPMC / UVSQ)

As phys.org correctly concludes:

"This work represents a breakthrough in pollution monitoring from space. With the launch of IASI-B, two IASI sounders are now able to collect infrared data from space and twice as much information has therefore been available since the end of January 2013. It will henceforth be possible to monitor pollution episodes associated with stable weather conditions more accurately and regularly. The work opens up new prospects for improved assessment and management of air quality." The paper is:

First simultaneous space measurements of atmospheric pollutants in the boundary layer from IASI: a case study in the North China Plain, Anne Boynard, Cathy Clerbaux, Lieven Clarisse, Sarah Safieddine, Matthieu Pommier, Martin Van Damme, Sophie Bauduin, Charlotte Oudot, Juliette Hadji-Lazaro, Daniel Hurtmans and Pierre-Francois Coheur, Geophys. Res. Lett., Online 17 January, 2014. DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058333

What is substantiated by this paper is that METOP/IASI is useful for measuring pollutants in other geographic areas and globally and is able to measure of global methane release and measurements through the troposphere.

More on that later.

Decline in CH4 Flask Monitoring as Atmospheric Methane Increases

Live Science posted an article last week with interview excerpts from Ed Dlugokencky, an atmospheric chemist with NOAA's Earth Sciences Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. He is one of the most important scientists involved in collecting green house gases from global monitoring sites and maintaining those records.

His comments quoted in the article add urgency to preservation of the monitoring system, and also to improving current and future satellite based methane monitoring. (More on this in later posts.)

"We've had about a 25 percent decrease in the number of air samples measured from the global cooperative network," Dlugokencky told Live Science. "If we want to understand what is happening [with methane], we're going in the wrong direction to do that."

"In the past six years, funding for part of the network — the collection of air samples in flasks — has not kept pace with cost increases."

He attributes the renewed increase in atmospheric CH4 after 2007, "likely due to increased tropical wetlands emissions. The recent string of La Niña years has meant more rainfall in the tropics, leading to more methane."

Dlugokencky added, "We can pretty much tell what's happening at a global level, but if we want to understand what's happening in different regions, we really need to have a denser measurement network and a combination of different approaches, like aircraft and tall towers."

What he does not include in this mix is an increase in satellite observations such as those available from the AIRS and IASI instruments, which would enhance our understanding of CH4 distribution and concentration closer to their sources and global distribution over far more area than the scattering of monitoring stations. See ESRL for the global monitoring data: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/data-products.html

The article claims that "NOAA complements its air-sample measurements with continuous measurements at six observatories — in Hawaii, Alaska, Greenland, Antarctica, American Samoa and California — and tall towers throughout the United States."

However the network is far more complete with numerous data collection locations available in the ESRL global monitoring network. See http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/index.html

One more significant item regarding Arctic methane. Live Science intimates that Dlugokencky holds the view that "the warming Arctic could add significant amounts of methane gas to the atmosphere as permafrost melts and releases huge quantities of gas trapped in previously frozen ground. While some studies indicate methane may already be escaping from the Arctic ground, atmospheric levels of methane in the Arctic have not increased yet." (Underlined emphasis is mine)

This perspective is debatable. Given the availability of the IASI methane data, this view needs further challenge. More on this in future posts.

Over all, however, the flask monitoring network is of great importance in methane tracking, given its long term readings. However, it needs careful consideration on what it exactly tells us, and how well it fills that role. The challenge to the ground network is that it only monitors specific locations, and their are major gaps in the network, especially in the Arctic and Antarctic.

Read more of the Live Science article at: http://www.livescience.com/42986-methane-greenhouse-gas-monitoring-threatened.html

Massive Siberian Cold Wave to Blast North America

While we have watched the Arctic warm to very high anomalies, that will reverse during the next week as a blast of Siberian cold washed over the pole and into North America. The result, by February 7-9 will be anomalies as much as 35 degrees F below normal into Northern Mexico.

Here is the set up, with all images coming from the University of Maine, Climate Reanalyzer website: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/

February 2, 2014 colder temps were blocked over Siberia, while warm anomalies dominate the Arctic.

On February 3, there is another wave of warmer temps moving across eastern Siberia, and into the ESS, however, this sets the stage for the rush of Siberian cold back over the NP that begins on February 4.

 

 

By February 5th, the flow of Siberian air over the Arctic commences.

By the 6th, a river of Siberian cold is bearing down on the Canadian Arctic, and beginning to flow south into Quebec.

 

 By February 7th, the first torrent of Siberian cold is about ready to cross the U.S. border.

 The Siberian are flow will eliminate the extreme warm anomaly from the CAB - but only temporarily.

By February 8th, the Siberian Express is impeded by a new influx of warm temperature anomalies from the North Pacific, moving into eastern Siberia. But the rush of cold air across the CAB will continue.



 

 

One result will be more snow for the US, including significant snow and rain forecast for northern California as a low brings moisture into the Western US. Even more dramatic is the GFS forecast of a major snow and rain event in the Eastern by February 9, 2014 1200Z.

 

It seems the pattern we have been seeing will have a brief break before returning to the warmer Arctic anomalies of the last few weeks.