Mauna Loa CO2 at 400.46 ppm on December 7, 2014? It's Possible!

The Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) published a preliminary carbon dioxide (CO2) reading go 400.46 ppm this afternoon. If it held, which I do not expect it will, it would be a jump of 2.42 ppm in one day, which is quite unusual.

To illustrate the leap - here is the last year's CO2 cycle. This kind of abrupt change will place us above March, 2014's mean, with room to spare. 

While we might immediately dismiss this as an anomaly, perhaps another perspective may change that perception.

Mauna Loa Observatory sits at 3,397 meters, or 11,145 feet asl. This is a rough equivalent to 650-666 mb of pressure, or layer 83 in the METOP IASI imagery.

Here are four images for comparison:

December 26, 2012, pm: This is the earliest METOP 2 CO2 imagery I've downloaded. Note the global CO2 level on that date was 393 ppm at 650 mb. Also, note almost no area was measured above a concentration of 410 ppm (yellow).

December 7, 2013, pm: Last year's METOP 2 IASI CO2 portrays an increase of 3 ppm at 650 mb on that date - to 396 mb. Also, numerous areas now portray concentrations above 410 ppm, (yellow) especially in the Arctic.

December 7, 2014, pm: Yesterday's MLO CO2 reading of 400.46 ppm is perhaps best understood with this perspective. The METOP 2 IASI CO2 at 650 mb was measured at 398 ppm, an increase of 2 ppm over 2013. While there are high concentrations of CO2 in the Arctic in 2014, similar to the prior year, what is now different are the increased areas of the Antarctic above 410 ppm (yellow).

So what is the METOP 1 IASI readings for December 7, 2014 pm? The satellite image at 650 mb reveals a global mean methane of 400 mb. Areas near Hawaii are above 400 mb. 

Given this, it might be argued that areas around Mauna Loa did experience readings above 400 ppm yesterday. 

If so, it is sobering to speculate what the CO2 concentration highs will be in 2015 - 405? 406? Time will tell - but it is not trending downward.

Sources:

NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Division: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

NOAA OSPO METOP IASI: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/index.html

November, 2014 Methane Moves up to New Monthly and Annual Mean Highs

Accelerated methane release through summer and fall continue to impact global methane levels for November, 2014 and year to date .

The two METOP satellites carry the IASI instrument which enables global capture of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations by 100 atmospheric levels, divided into 12 hour periods. They help give a broader understanding of the concentrations and distributions of these two greenhouse gases and complement the local specific readings that ground stations provide in the AGAGE, ESRL or WDCGG networks.

Metop IASI 2-A

For November 1-10, mean methane for 2-A averaged 1818.95 ppb, which was 10.57 ppb more than November 1-10, 2013.

November 11-20 saw the average mean methane reach 1816.29 ppb, which was an increase of 8.84 ppb over the same period in 2013.

November 21-30 saw a continuation of that trend, with average mean methane at 1813.35 ppb, or 8.14 ppb higher than November 21-30, 2013.

For the month, the IASI 2-A mean methane averaged 1816.20 ppb or 9.18 ppb over November, 2013. 

The year to date mean methane average moved up to 1808.70, which is 6.77 ppb above 2013's average through November 30th.


Metop IASI 1-B 

The METOP IASI 1-B readings are usually 8-10 ppb higher than those recorded by 2-A. These were not available through the NOAA OSPO until this year, so there is no comparison to 2013.

For November 1-10, mean methane for 1-B averaged 1826.21 ppb.

November 11-20 saw the average mean methane reach 1824.65 ppb.

November 21-30 had an average mean methane at 1821.50 ppb.

For the month, the IASI 1-B mean methane averaged 1824.12 ppb. 

Continuing Increases:

What continues to drive the increases seem to be the following:

Global fires, especially in wetlands.

Oil and natural gas production.

Rainfall or surface melt which triggers methogenic organisms.

In a few short days, I'll have my first data that will track two years of methane collected from the IASI imagery.

Sources:

NOAA OSPO: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/index.html

Arctic Circle Assembly 2014: Wadhams - No September Arctic Sea Ice in 2020 and More

The Arctic Circle Assembly met October 31 to November 2, 2014 in Reykjavik, Iceland. The event enabled three days of meetings and presentations on all things "Arctic." See: http://arcticcircle.org/

The Alaskan Dispatch reporter summarized 10 key points he felt important - two are shared here:

1. "The Big Thaw Has Only Just Begun. Everywhere scientists gathered here there was talk of feedback loops of one sort or another. Melting permafrost is releasing methane gas, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, to fuel more Arctic warming. Melting sea ice is exposing more ocean to the sun to capture more solar radiation to fuel more Arctic warming. Warming Arctic water is evaporating to form more water vapor, yet another greenhouse gas, to fuel Arctic warming. All of this is now underway."

2. The Arctic Ocean will likely have a sea ice free month by 2020: British physicist Peter Wadhams observed, there seems no natural mechanism for turning the thawing processes off. There seemed a broad consensus that even if there are efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions - the Arctic will continue warming for the foreseeable future. "Wadhams is predicting the end of the polar ice cap by the summer of 2020." Alaskan Dispatch:  http://www.adn.com/article/20141103/10-takeaways-2014-arctic-circle-assembly

Wadhams' comments about his prediction are recorded in a prior Alaskan Dispatch article: 

"No models here," Peter Wadhams, professor of applied mathematics and theoretical physics at the University of Cambridge in England, told the Arctic Circle Assembly on Sunday. "This is data."

Wadhams has access to data not only on the extent of ice covering the Arctic, but on the thickness of that ice. The latter comes from submarines that have been beneath the ice collecting measurements every year since 1979. 

This data shows ice volume "is accelerating downward," Wadhams said. "There doesn't seem to be anything to stop it from going down to zero.

"By 2020, one would expect the summer sea ice to disappear. By summer, we mean September. ... (but) not many years after, the neighboring months would also become ice-free."

Alaskan Dispatch: http://www.adn.com/article/20141102/expert-predicts-ice-free-arctic-2020-un-releases-climate-report

So what data is Wadhams using? It seems he is referring to the PIOMAS data, which monitors sea ice volume and thickness in the Arctic. See the Polar Science Center: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

The analysis of the data trends does point to the potential for an "ice free" month in 2020, as demonstrated by PIOMAS projections by Wipenus. The first graphic is the September Sea Ice projection based upon several statistical trend models:

Even with factoring in the bounce in September sea ice volume in Sept 2014, the statistical fits project an ice free September by 2019-2020.

The statistical trending by month reveals that other months are not far behind, and may be "ice free" by 2020 as well:

The problem is, we are not sure what impacts a sea ice free month will have on global climate, but if it does heat the Arctic Ocean in areas of sea bed methane, from the Kara to the ESS, then an acceleration of methane may not be far behind.

Another session included Igor Semiletov, and dealt with Arctic methane issues. Unfortunately, we will have to wait to hear more on his comments.

The NSIDC October Sea Ice report is out, and with October Arctic sea ice confirmed to be the sixth lowest on record - sustaining a 6.9% decline per decade since 1979.

NSIDC: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Wipneus: 


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Global Mean Methane Moves Up Substantially: 2014 Year to Date IASI Mean Methane by Dekade and Month

Introduction

During January to October 2014, global mean methane, as reported by the EUMETSAT METOP IASI instrument, jumped significantly above last year's readings. Global mean methane year to date, as measured by IASI through October, 2014 climbed to 1807.80 ppb or 6.38 ppb above 2013. 

The primary causes for these increases seem to be accelerated permafrost melt, some additional methane release in Arctic Ocean, forest fires in peat areas/wetlands in Canada and Russia, rice production in South Asia, palm oil production in Southeast Asia and oil and natural gas production in Africa and the Middle East. There are some areas of low altitude concentrations or surface flares at this point that are consistently apparent in the METOP/IASI imagery, that reach levels above 1950 ppb.

METOP 1-B and 2-A Description

There are two METOP satellites with the IASI methane measuring instrument currently in orbit. METOP 2, the second satellite in the production series, was actually launched first and is designated "A". The first satellite, METOP 1, was launched second and designated "B". Source: https://directory.eoportal.org/web/eoportal/satellite-missions/m/metop

To help keep their identity's straight, I have combined the two names as METOP 1-B and 2-A to help delineate their data and imagery. The METOP 2-A imagery was first made available through the NASA OSPO in 2012, as far as I am aware. METOP 1-B imagery was first made available through the OSPO on April 5, 2014, while the METOP 2-A satellite imagery was unavailable.

METOP 1-B vs 2-A IASI Methane Reading Comparison Variability

The methane readings of the METOP 1-B IASI instrument are generally 8-12 ppb higher than those of METOP 2-A. I am not sure why this is so, but presume that the METOP 1-B instrument readings may be more sensitive, or were originally calibrated differently. I hope someone who knows why will share with us. Both records are valuable in demonstrating trends in global mean methane.

Comparing IASI Mean Methane vs WMO, WDCGG, ESRL, AGAGE, etc.

The METOP IASI imagery provides a truly global perspective - advantageous to those interested in tracking methane. WMO, ESRL, AGAGE and individual stations collecting methane data are useful and repected for the following advantages:

1. They have collected CO2 and CH4 measurements for many years, providing a longer term trend than satellite data/imagery.
2. They are generally always available to track those measurements through time for specific locations.
3. They are able to measure CO2 and CH4 in a variety of weather conditions, including cloudiness, and temperature variability which can interfere with the IASI data collection and imagery.

However the WMO, ESRL, AGAGE and other agencies have some disadvantages.

1. The readings are for only a few specific locations, usually at the earth's surface.
2. Their readings do not extend into the atmosphere - in other words, methane concentrations any major distance above the surface are not measured.
3. Given the gaps in the network's global coverage, we have had to extrapolate what the global mean methane is based upon the stations in the network. Because areas not covered by the network may have lower methane readings, for example, then the global mean based upon the stations might be higher or lower than a more extensive network might report.

The advantages of METOP IASI data/imagery is that it is truly global, and provides 100 potential layers of methane measurement across the entire glove. This larger statistical sampling provides a better basis for measuring global mean methane.

One additonal advantage is that it is available almost real time, something not available from the ground based stations, except for CO2 from Mauna Loa as provided by Scripps and ESRL. However, this regrettably does not include daily CH4 readings.

The drawback is the since areas with cloudiness, or gaps in satellite coverage happen daily, the IASI data and imagery is still a sampling.

What will be closer to the ideal is if the the satelitte and earth based GHG measurement community comes to the point of merging the sources, then we will have a more robust and complete data set.


IASI Average Median Methane Collection and Trends

The following is the average mean methane readings summary by 10 day period (dekadal) and monthly from January 1 to October 31, 2014, for the METOP 2-A satellite, in comparison to 2013 as available.

What is being measured is the highest mean methane readings for each 12 hour period for each day's imagery and data as available. Given the nature of methane concentration, the altitude or millibar level for those highest means change throughout the year. Here is one image to illustrate what is being used from the OSPO. 

The highest global mean recorded by METOP 2-A IASI for a 12 hour period this year was 1829 ppb.

January, 2014

January is the next to lowest methane concentration month, and the monthly mean was 1 ppb above January, 2013.

Dekadal PPB Month PPB Average Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB Jan 1-10, 2014 1793.35 Jan 11-20, 2014 1793.90 Jan 21-31, 2014 1792.76 1793.34 1.00

February, 2014

February's mean was the lowest in 2014 as it was in 2013. The methane mean difference between the year's was negligible at .13 ppb.

Dekadal	PPB	Month PPB Average	Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Feb 1-10, 2014	1791.45
Feb 11-20, 2014	1790.86
Feb 21-28, 2014	1793.33	1791.88	0.13

March, 2014

The March methane mean collection was incomplete due to a METOP satellite anomaly which took it off line for about a month, beginning March 27, 2014. What follows is calculated upon the available imagery.

Dekadal	PPB	Month PPB Average	Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Mar 1-10, 2014	1794.60
Mar 11-20, 2014	1796.35
Mar 21-26, 2014	1799.75	1796.90	0.35

The year to date mean methane was 1794.04 ppb, which was .49 ppb above January to March, 2013.

April, 2014

The METOP 2-A satellite was off-line for all of April, 2014 while its problem was analysed. No mean methane imagery was available through the OSPO.

May, 2014

METOP IASI became available again on May 20, 2014. The following monthly mean reflects imagery readings for the last 10 days of the month. It results in a reading 2.68 ppb above May, 2013, which is likely too high given the data gap.

Dekadal	PPB	Month PPB Average	Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
May 1-10, 2014	NA	NA
May 11-20, 2014	NA	NA
May 21-31, 2014	1799.50	1799.50	2.68

June, 2014

June, 2014 sees a significant increase in methane over the prior year, of 3.84 ppb. The difference may be linked to heatwaves and increased fires in Siberia and Canada.

Dekadal	PPB	Month PPB Average	Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Jun 1-10, 2014	1799.27
Jun 11-20, 2014	1801.14
Jun 21-30, 2014	1802.44	1800.95	3.84

However, global mean methane to date through June 30, was only 1796.05 and only .41 ppb higher than 2013. At this point it seemed that 2014 and 2013 would not exhibit much of an increase in mean methane, but the next three months changed that perspective.

July, 2014

July witnessed an explosion of heat, drought and fire which accelerated methane release in July, 2014. The month average ended up 7.44 ppb above 2013. 

Dekadal	PPB	Month PPB Average	Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Jul 1-10, 2014	1805.60
Jul 11-20, 2014	1812.90
Jul 21-31, 2014	1816.95	1811.82	7.44

Global mean methane for January through July, 2014 was 1799.01 ppb an increase to 2.12 ppb above the 2013 mean.

August, 2014

August witnessed the continued increase of fires, heat and drought which boosted global methane even more quickly. 

Dekadal	PPB	Month PPB Average	Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Aug 1-10, 2014	1820.15
Aug 11-20, 2014	1821.55
Aug 21-31, 2014	1824.86	1822.19	8.07

The global mean methane year to date through August was 1802.67 or 3.63 ppb above 2013.

September, 2014

The major increase of global methane in September was troubling, but understandable as the same factors which impacted August's global mean methane continued. It is also possible that the warmer ocean water may have also influenced this increase in July through September. The last dekade of September had methane readings 15.45 ppb above 2013.

Dekadal	PPB	Month PPB Average	Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Sept 1-10, 2014	1827.14
Sept 11-20, 2014	1825.46
Sept 21-30 2014	1825.90	1826.17	14.12

The global mean methane year to date through September 2014 was 1805.87 or 5.39 ppb above 2013, YTD.

October, 2014

This past month has witnessed continued elevated global mean methane due to global heat and increased methane in the northern hemisphere. It is clear that this increase may sustain through winter as darkness and temperatures fall in the northern hemisphere. 

Dekadal	PPB	Month PPB Average	Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Oct 1-10, 2014	1823.37
Oct 11-20, 2014	1822.33
Oct 21-31, 2014	1820.14	1821.95	12.14

Global mean methane year to date through October, 2014 climbed to 1807.80 ppb or 6.38 ppb above 2013. 

What the rest of this year brings remains to be seen, but one thing is clear - methane continues its climb with serious implications for global warming.

Further reports will be created on a monthly basis.

Sources:

OSPO/METOP/IASI:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/index.html

Personal database of METOP/IASI imagery