Global Mean Methane Hits 1810 ppb - 12 ppb above 2013

During the last few weeks, global mean methane levels have been creeping higher than 2013. On April 27, 2014, 0-12 hrs, the global mean methane concentration hit 1810 ppb at 469 mb, which is 12 ppb higher than last year for the same date and time.

The same level in 2013 was not reached until July 31st. To demonstrate the change, here is the April 27, 2013 highest global mean reading which was at 586 mb. The 2014 readings follow.

The primary contributors to the 2014 increase seem to be the early snow melt in Scandinavia and Siberia, and the anomalously high temperatures in China, which may be boosting methane production in thawed soils. The April 27, 2014 image is below.

Another factor is the increased release of CO from the fires in South East Asia, which may be using up OH, and a factor in CH4 increase. The highest Carbon Monoxide readings from the fires on April 27, 2014, 0-12 hrs follow.

If the Siberian heat continues into May, the potential for a significant increase in methane through the rest of 2014 is very probable.

Mauna Loa CO2: On Track for 401 ppm Average in April, 2014 - Highest in Human History

Preliminary carbon dioxide (CO2) readings from both the Scripps/Keeling Curve and NOAA/ESRL observatories at Mauna Loa are on track for a monthly average above 401 ppm - for the first time in modern human history.

NOAA/ESRL CO2:

Through April 26, NOAA's MLO average for the month is approximately 401.25 ppm. Here are the NOAA daily, weekly and monthly averages for the previous year as of April 26, 2014.

Compared to April, 2013, the NOAA/ESRL April, 2014 average may be as much as 2.80-2.95 ppm higher than last year. This reflects the trends of increasing atmospheric CO2 even without El Nino as a factor. 

Sources: 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/index.html

Scripps/Keeling Curve CO2:

The April, 2014  Scripps/Keeling Curve average CO2 through April 26, 2014 is 401.34 ppm. The hourly/daily graph of the last week has reflected individual hours as high as 402 ppm.

The Keeling Curve graph for the last month portrays the increase during the last 30 days.

With May usually reporting the highest monthly CO2 averge at Mauna Loa, May, 2014 may average CO2 readings over 403 ppm.  

Sources: 

http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/

http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2.html

 

Global IASI Mean CO2 at 402 ppm vs 401.58 or 401.29 at MLO on April 8, 2014 vs 395 ppm April 8, 2013

The Scripps or NOAA Mauana Loa CO2 reporting are generally used to represent the global CO2 equivalent. Since both measures have been used for years, they are helpful for long term tracking of atmospheric carbon dioxide. However they only represent the CO2 at one point on the planet and not the global variation in CO2 readings.

Scripps CO2

The CO2 ppm on April 8, 2014 for Scripps at Mauna Loa was 401.58 ppm. 

See: http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/global-co2-board.html
Also http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/

NOAA/ERSL/GMD

The NOAA/ERSL/GMD Mauna Loa reading was 401.32, according to the 5 day CO2 average reporting. 

See:: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

The latest NOAA/ERSL graphic reveals the following trend, each dot representing the daily CO2 ppm average for that date.

EUMETSAT/METOP/IASI 

However another way of determining global CO2 is by use of satellite imagery. The METOP IASI instrument captures daily CO2 readings globally. A mean of those readings provide another way of measuring the global daily mean - and also the CO2 variations at various altitudes or millibar equivalents.

For example, the April 8, 2013, 12-24 hr IASI image reveals a global mean CO2 of 395 ppm at 945 mb. This was lower than the readings reported at Mauna Loa, which were around 397-398 ppm. Also note the range of global readings.

This variance between MLO and the IASI global mean is not occurring this year. In fact the MLO reading is lower than many areas in the Northern hemisphere. At 945 mb, the global mean CO2 for April 8 is 402 ppm, an increase of 7 ppm compared to last year - a very troubling development!

Source: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/index.html

It will be interesting to see if this increase of 7 ppm over last year remains constant through April and May.

Thanks NOAA and EUMETSAT! Metop IASI Global Methane Imagery Now Available - New April 5 CH4 High - 1807 ppb

On March 26, 2014, the Metop A IASI methane and carbon dioxide imagery along with its other sounding products became unavailable to a hardware fault. See: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/SPBULL/MSG0941254.01.txt

As of yesterday, it seemed this information source, along with the Metop 2/B (which was not publicly available at that time) would remain unavailable for at least two weeks.

This morning I was pleasantly shocked to find that NOAA has updated the Metop IASI sounding page and that data is now planned to be publicly available from Metop 1/A IASI (still in recovery) and Metop 2/B which is operational and now public.

Many, many thanks to EUMETSAT and NOAA for making this imagery available to the public for the second IASI sounder, and potentially both sounders in the next few weeks!

For the new webpage, see: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/index.html

So how has the global mean CH4 changed since March 26th? Alot!

On April 5, 2014 12-24 hrs, IASI measured global mean methane at 1807 ppb, which is 7 ppb above the same date last year! In 2013, 1807 ppb was not reached until July 15th in  2013! There may be a couple of reasons. One is the early thaws in Siberia and parts of Canada, and the other is the earlier fire season in Russia and the US. The Antarctic methane layer also has high concentrations.

The next few months are going to be interesting, to see if this increasing trend continues.

Also, support Methanetracker.org. they need funding for a new upgrade. One of the best contributions to climate science someone can make! See http://www.methanetracker.org/