Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Canada Consumed by Early Spring Infernos - Ft. McMurray Total Evacuation

Fort McMurray, Alberta went from a May 1, 2016 forest fire that was expected to be contained, to a May 2 blaze of 1,250 hectares. 

However, instead of dying down overnight, the morning of May 3, found the oilsands city facing the growing threat of a fire that had mushroomed to 2,600 hectares.

About noon, the inversion broke, the wind shifted, increased, and fanned fire into an inferno that engulfed the city, resulting in a chaotic mandatory evacuation of 83,000 area residents.

Source: Edmonton Journal: http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/timeline-of-fort-mcmurray-wildfire-that-turned-on-the-northern-alberta-city-with-wind-shift

According to Global News, "The wildfire grew suddenly on Tuesday because of what Alberta Forestry spokesperson Bernie Schmitte described as “very explosive conditions.”

“Basically the fire behaviour was beyond all control efforts,” he said. “The worst of the fire is not over.”

Schmitte said 150 firefighters were currently battling the flames and that help was being brought in from across Canada."

Source: http://globalnews.ca/news/2677885/mayor-issues-warnings-as-fire-situation-in-fort-mcmurray-intensifies/

Pictures of fire, smoke, and structures in danger reveal the sad savagery of the conditions, expected around Fort McMurray again today




All pictures source: http://globalnews.ca/news/2678446/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-and-the-smoke-trapping-inversion-which-made-the-fire-look-calm/

Source: http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/alberta-wildfires-by-the-numbers

Alberta expects Wednesday's weather to create extreme fire conditions again. "

"Matthew Anderson, wildfire information officer, tells CBC Edmonton the weather looks bad today, with extreme hot and dry conditions."


The 4:00 am fire damage assessment captured the initial tragic loss of homes, livelihoods and millions of dollars of damage. This will be updated later this morning:
Source: https://twitter.com/RMWoodBuffalo

A CBC map shows the damaged areas:


Source: https://twitter.com/LydiaNeufeldCBC/status/727837263875457024/photo/1

Fort McMurray is not alone facing these hellish conditions.


British Columbia: No help available for Fort McMurray 

Given it's own extreme fire situation, British Columbia declined to send assistance to Alberta to fight the Fort McMurray firestorm. 

“In this case, given the current level of fire activity in B.C. and the need to maintain necessary resources here, B.C. was unable to lend crews at this time. We will consider future requests,” Mr. Turcot said from Kamloops."

He said B.C. is experiencing “high levels” of forest-fire activity in the Peace region with 48 forest fires, the largest covering 7,000 hectares, burning there. There are four evacuation alerts in B.C. – all in the Peace region." 



Saskatchewan Faces Similar Fire Danger

"Fire danger ratings across Saskatchewan range from high to extreme, as province-wide hot and dry conditions persist. Saskatchewan emergency management commissioner Duane McKay urged caution at a news conference in Regina Tuesday.

“We anticipate high 20s to 30s and low relative humidities. That puts us into what we refer to as a ‘crossover situation,’ where things are extremely volatile,” McKay said."

As of Tuesday morning, there had been at least 102 wildfires to date in Saskatchewan, compared to 81 at the same point last year."


Fire weather outlook: More tough conditions for days to come:

The Canada Fire Weather forecast depicts continuing high or extreme fire conditions for its Western provinces for the next several days.

May 3 conditions were:

Temperatures have been above 30 C in some areas yesterday. 

Wednesday's forecast conditions expand the region of potential dire impacts. 

These dire forecasts for heat, low humidity and wind will create extreme conditions across much of the same region through May 8.


By May 16, the situation improves, but not much.


Canada is seemingly facing another summer of fire, smoke, and damage, that will further contribute to the global increase of CO2, methane, and black soot spewing into the atmosphere.

Last year was a Northern Hemisphere fire record for acres burned for the US, Russia and Canada combined. It seems this year is getting a sobering start toward another major fire season.

According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center, (CIFFC), Cananda has experienced year to date, (May 3) over double the forest fires of any average in the last 25 years. 

Worse, the 22,817 hectares consumed year to date are at least 400% higher than the 5, 10, 15 and 25 year averages.

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

March Warming - Still Record Hot - Slowly Sinking

Ryan Maue tweeted the image below to give a Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere recent temperature trend comparison through March 21 2016. The global temp anomalies are still running above .70 C and Northern Hemisphere over 1 C warming compared to the 1981-2010 mean.


Global temperature + update: March month-to-date anomaly = +0.73°C (February +0.70°C, Jan_Feb_Mar +0.65°C)

Source: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Methane's Dramatic Global Change February 2003 vs 2016

Sometimes two images tell a dramatic story, of global climate change.

The following are the February, 2003 vs 2016 monthly timed average atmospheric concentrations of methane at 500 mb with a scale of 1700 to 1950 ppb.

February, 2003 depicts a world where nothing is near 1950 ppb.

Night

Day


Thirteen years later the change is glaringly apparent as the Northern Hemisphere has many areas above 1900 ppb, and spikes indicated in the IASI images above 2400 ppb on a regular basis.

Night

 

Day

Source: AIRS Giovanni

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

January 2016 Arctic Ocean 2m Surface Temp Anomalies - Sizzlingly HIgh

The January, 2016 Arctic Ocean area experienced the highest monthly 2m temp anomaly for the 2011-2016 period.

Thanks to Karsten Haustein, the imagery and data are made available on a very helpful webpage.

Karsten tracks the NCEP GFS, the NCAR/NCEP and GISS Global Temp imagery, data and forecasts.

The table lays out the Arctic Ocean temperature anomalies for all three data sources for January, 2011-2016. The average mean provides a composite anomaly from all three sources, as available.

Arctic Ocean Mean Temp Trends
NCEP-GFS-GISS
Mean Temps in K/C
http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php
Year Month GFS NCEP GISS Avg Mean
2011 Jan 1.061 1.317 1.189
2012 Jan 3.695 2.201 1.865 2.587
2013 Jan 2.130 1.601 0.666 1.466
2014 Jan 1.867 1.316 0.714 1.299
2015 Jan 1.292 0.884 0.500 0.892
2016 Jan 4.507 4.977 3.620 4.368

The following are the imagery for the January, 2016 results.

NCEP- GFS
Note the extreme anomalies over the Barents and stretching almost to 90N.

NCAR/NCEP
The NCAR/NCEP calculations shift the warmth into the Central Arctic.

GISS
The GISS Global Temp imagery reflects a similar pattern, yet misses the higher anomaly in the Central Arctic.

February, 2016 is available for two of the three indices, and will be posted later.