El Nino Creates Amazon Drought and Extreme Fire Danger

In a recent Environmental Research Letter article, Yang Chen, et al, demonstrated how by use of sea surface temperatures, predictions of oncoming seasonal drought could be used to determine fire season severity. The research shows correlations between sea surface temperatures in 14 ocean indices areas could predict fire in 12 "hotspot" regions, using the GFED data for the fire and emissions correlation. 

See: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/045001

In a current example of their process, through 2015, drought in the Amazon basin deepened as El Nino strengthened in the Pacific, and the Atlantic remained anomalously warm.

Source: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_archive_composite/b05kmnn_ssta_mean_annual_2015_large.gif

The SST anomaly affecting the Amazon has continued through July 2016, despite El Nino's official end.

Source: http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_archive_composite_y2d/b05kmnn_ssta_mean_20160101to20160706_large.gif

This SST anomaly impact is apparent rainfall anomaly results from TRMM for South America from for 180 days prior to January 23, 2016. the first shows the actual rainfall anomaly in millimeters, the second as percentage of normal.

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/samerica/samerica.shtml

This effect continued into 2016 as drought continued to grip the Amazon and northern South America as shown in the TRMM 180 day rainfall anomaly imagery from July 7, 2016. The first image below depicts the anomaly in millimeters, the second as percent of normal.

The result is that the Amazon basin has minimal ground moisture and rain forest stressed by severe drought.

GRACE imagery compares the last few drought years for groundwater and soil moisture as terrestrial water storage to the current drought - with 2016 being the most dire conditions to begin the Amazon fire season since 2002.

Source: http://phys.org/news/2016-06-el-nino-intense-season-amazon.html

The fire counts for these prior years are available in the GFED monthly data for 2001-2015, likely to be exceeded by 2016's upcoming fire season.

Source: http://www.ess.uci.edu/~amazonfirerisk/ForecastWeb/SAMFSS2016.html

The Amazon has been divided into 10 regions for drought, fire and emissions studies by NASA and UC Irvine scientists. They are the following:

In 2015, the predictions of fire severity for these regions were low to moderate, depending on the region.

Source: http://www.ess.uci.edu/~amazonfirerisk/ForecastWeb/SAMFSS2015.html

While the initial 2015 fire severity prediction was low to moderate, El Nino drove fires and emissions to high levels. 2015 saw 240,492 fires counted by MODIS as depicted by the light blue line below, the highest fire count since 2003.

Source: http://www.globalfiredata.org/updates.html#2016_totals

It resulted in the highest CO2/GHG fire derived emissions from the Amazon since 2003.

Source: http://www.globalfiredata.org/updates.html#2016_totals

Given the drought of the last year, driven by El Nino and Atlantic sea surface warming, the 2016 Amazon fire season begins with severe dryness. 

As noted in the UC Irvine fire risk website, "Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean during October-April were at record high levels relative to the 2001-2015 period of satellite fire observations because of the strong 2015-2016 El Niño. Concurrently, SSTs in the tropical Atlantic during January-April of 2016 were above average. Combined, the elevated SSTs in both oceans provide evidence for extremely high fire risk for the Amazon during the 2016 dry season. Pará, Mato Grosso and Amazonas have the highest risk according to our forecast."

Source: http://www.ess.uci.edu/~amazonfirerisk/ForecastWeb/SAMFSS2016.html

As noted by the red line in the cumulative monthly fire count above, 2016 has 36,994 fires through July 5, 2016. This is exceeded only by 2004, with 41,518 fires, and is 52% more than 2015's 24,321.

Given that we know that high temperature anomalies cause Amazon forests to dry, it's trees to slow CO2 intake, and increased fire levels - fire emissions are likely to be very high through 2016. The following depicts the last 30 day rainfall anomaly and fires burning in South America in the last 48 hours as detected by MODIS. It is a glimpse of the extreme Amazon fire season to come.

The consequence of this climate interaction of warming seas and drought results in a continued weakening of the Amazon as a CO2 sink, and its slow creep to becoming a CO2 source. 

As Philip Duffy, et al, warned in a 2015 PNAS paper, "The models also predicted that the area of the Amazon affected by mild and severe drought will double in the eastern part of Amazonia and triple in the west by 2100. Meanwhile, a wetter wet season and more rainfall could lead to more floods, as well."

“In most of the Amazon, we find that climate models project great increases in the frequency and area of drought,” Duffy said. “The models also project that the rainy season will get wetter, and the dry season drier. They also project increases in extreme precipitation. So, all in all, climate models project an intensification of hydrological extremes in the region.”

The study did not, however, account for the effects of global warming, which tend to make drought more intense by drying out the soil. “That is to say, in our study we measured drought in terms of precipitation deficits,” Duffy explained. “Warming on top of this — which is virtually certain to occur — will make droughts more severe.”

Source: Duffy, P. B., Brando, P., Asner, G. P., Field, C. B. (2015). Projections of future meteorological drought and wet periods in the Amazon. PNAS, 10.1073/pnas.1421010112.

http://news.mongabay.com/2015/10/more-drought-floods-predicted-for-the-amazon/

Given the droughts of 2005, 2010, and now 2016, we may see an acceleration of the consequences above as more abrupt unanticipated change to come.

Monthly Global CO2 Spikes Above 404 ppm - Another Record High

On July 5th, NOAA ESRL released its initial May, 2016 global CO2 averages - a new record of 404.21 ppm and likely the peak monthly average for 2016.

Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html

While March 2015, was the first global month above 400 ppm, all of 2016 has been above that average. We are on track for our first year above 400 ppm in human history.

For the NOAA March, 2015 announcement, see: http://research.noaa.gov/News/NewsArchive/LatestNews/TabId/684/ArtMID/1768/ArticleID/11153/Greenhouse-gas-benchmark-reached-.aspx

While NOAA ESRL's graph above portrays the recent monthly trend, it helps to visualize the whole increase since 1980.

Data: NOAA ESRL, Graphic: Apocalypse4Real

Trends: 

Since May, 1980's 340.30 ppm, we have added 64 ppm of CO2 to the global atmosphere - an increase of 18.8% in 36 years. If a pre-industrial CO2 level of 270 ppm is assumed, then since the 1880's we now have almost 50% more CO2 in our atmosphere - pushing global warming.

But what about the trends - are the increases slowing down since, since it has been argued that human emissions peaked in 2014, and were tentatively expected to have a slight decline in 2015, as reported in Inside Climate News and Nature Climate Change in December, 2015? 

See: Global CO2 Emissions Decline in 2015 After Soaring for a Decade, Study Says, http://insideclimatenews.org/news/07122015/global-carbon-emissions-rising-decades-decline-2015-study-climate-change-paris

According to the NOAA ESRL data, that is not apparent. Usually we discuss increases or declines in atmospheric CO2 ppm compared to the prior year. For example, this month's 404.21 is 3.55 ppm higher than May, 2015. It is the 3rd highest difference compared to prior years in the NOAA ESRL global data. The two months with higher change are July, 2013, and September, 1998, which were both 3.59 ppm higher than their prior year.

The problem is that comparing only year to year change misses the overall acceleration of atmospheric CO2 increases. To depict that acceleration, the graphic below includes the 5 year and 10 year change in CO2. The longer time frames depict the cumulative effects of CO2 increases.

Data: NOAA ESRL, Graphic: Apocalypse4Real

Comparisons:

1 Year: A small trend increase is detectable in the 1 year monthly comparison, from 1981 to present, (blue line above). Peaks have occurred in association with oceanic warming or El Ninos plus reflect increases in human emissions.

5 Years: The five year monthly comparison trend (red line) shows that we have experienced a spike of 12.34 ppm compared to May, 2011. We have now experienced 6 months of 5 year trend comparison above 11 ppm, a new record, and we had never experienced increases of more than 12 ppm in the 5 year trend increases until this year.

10 years: The decadal comparisons reveal the monthly change trends that have occurred since 2000 in sobering clarity. Prior to 2000, most decadal differences were around 15 ppm. But beginning in August 2002, we experienced 21 consecutive months of decadal differences above 2 ppm. That, in combination with higher CO2 increases during the 1998 El Nino, set the base for the jump to decadal changes of 20 ppm, first achieved in September, 2007. 

Since October, 2012, we have not experienced a decadal monthly CO2 difference under 20 ppm. In December, 2015, we broke through 21 ppm of change. Since then, we have not had a decadal monthly difference under 21 ppm. This month's 21.80 ppm difference compared to May, 2006, reflects the impacts of El Nino, fires, drought, and perhaps climate feedbacks unleashed by the current heating. 

Will it hit 22 ppm decadal difference this year? Not likely, but only time will tell.

CO2 Surges Past 410 ppm at 30 ESRL station locations

NOAA announced this past week that the South Pole CO2 level sliced through 400 ppm and garnished a major amount of media attention. 
Source: http://www.noaa.gov/south-pole-last-place-on-earth-to-pass-global-warming-milestone

However, this left me thinking about the next milestone in a treacherous journey to further CO2 increases - 410 ppm. 

We have experienced accelerated CO2 increases during 2014-2016 due to El Nino and other global heating factors. As Richard Betts has argued, this push by El Nino will keep Mauna Loa, and perhaps the planet above 400 ppm later this year. 

“The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is rising year-on-year due to human emissions, but this year it is getting an extra boost due to the recent El Niño event – changes in the sea-surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This warms and dries tropical ecosystems, reducing their uptake of carbon, and exacerbating forest fires. Since human emissions are now 25 per cent greater than in the last big El Niño in 1997/98, this all adds up to a record CO₂ rise this year.”

As Betts further noted, "Carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa is currently above 400 parts per million, but would have been expected to drop back down below this level in September. However, we predict that this will not happen now, because the recent El Niño has warmed and dried tropical ecosystems and driven forest fires, adding to the CO2 rise". Source: http://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/featurednews/title_517595_en.html

So where has the planet reached 410 ppm this year? In at least 30 locations in the ESRL network. 

Each red or blue circle in the following image represents an location where CO2 is measured. Those locations with yellow stars inside the circles have preliminary spikes above 410 ppm this spring, and a few actually have had their mean break through the 410 ppm barrier. 

So much for concern over 400 ppm.

Most locations with levels above 410 ppm are located in the Arctic, North America, Europe Middle East and East Asia above 20N. The only major holdout is Summit Greenland, but that will likely break the 410 mark next year.

Here are the CO2 time series images to document the above map, taken from ESRL Interactive Data Visualisation site as of June 18, 2016. Source: http://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/

They depict the Arctic first, then North America, Europe, Middle East, and finally, East Asia.


Arctic:

North America

Europe

Middle East

East Asia

Given the warmth from El Nino and oceanic heating, plus developing drought in the US, and ongoing drought in other areas, it is quite possible that many of these stations will continue the accelerated increase in CO2 - compared to prior years - through this year.