Gulf Coral Reef Dying From New Unknown Cause - White Matting

Since 2014, our oceans have experienced terrible impacts from red tide and global coral bleaching which have caused global coral mortality events. 

Now, NOAA announced this week that a new menace has been discovered with high capacity for reef and entire ecosystem destruction.

On Monday, July 25, 2016, divers discovered "green, hazy water," over East Flower Garden Bank in Gulf of Mexico. Usually, it is blue and mostly clear. The Banks are about 100 miles off the Texas and Louisiana coast in the Gulf of Mexico.

Source: Google Earth

Arriving at the bottom they "were stunned to find ..... huge patches of ugly white mats coating corals and sponges, and dead animals littering the bottom on the East Flower Garden Bank, a reef normally filled with color and marine life. The reef, which is part of Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, is considered one of the healthiest anywhere in the region." 
Source: http://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/news/jul16/noaa-scientists-report-mass-die-off-of-invertebrates-at-east-flower-garden-bank.html

The pictures are appalling:

A white mat of unknown material coats a dying sponge at the East Flower Garden Bank during a large-scale mortality event. Image: FGBNMS/G.P. Schmahl

A massive star coral impacted by a large-scale mortality event at the East Flower Garden Bank. These corals are hundreds and hundreds of years old, and can be lost in a matter of days. Image credit: FGBNMS/G.P. Schmahl

Tissue sloughing off a recently dead brain coral succumbing to a large-scale mortality event at the East Flower Garden Bank. Image credit: FGBNMS/G.P. Schmahl

These photos are not isolated samples. 

According to  Dr. Steve Gittings, NOAA's Chief Scientist of the Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, "The divers and researchers found unprecedented numbers of dying corals, sponges, sea urchins, brittle stars, clams and other invertebrates on large but separate patches of the reef. Sanctuary Research Coordinator Emma Hickerson reported extensive white mats covering corals and sponges, and estimates the mortality of corals to be nearly 50 percent in some of the affected areas. The spatial extent of the event is still being determined, but Hickerson says the die-off has so far been seen at three dive sites that charter boats typically use when they visit the bank."

As NOLA, a New Orleans paper, summarized NOAA's statements, "The bank is undergoing a "large-scale mortality event of unknown cause." 
Source: http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2016/07/gulf_reef_dying_of_unknown_cau.html

NOAA Quarantine in Place

Gitting stated, "NOAA is recommending the public avoid diving, fishing, and boating activities on the East Flower Garden Bank. This is primarily to prevent the transmission of whatever is causing the mass mortality to unaffected locations, but also could protect divers from ingesting what could be harmful pathogens or toxins." However, with all the unknowns, that quarantine zone may expand to surrounding reefs:

Source: NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries Map

What is sad is that the East and West Flower Garden reefs have not previously experienced major coral bleaching or disease. And, what is happening now is not coral bleaching, since more than corals are being affected. So what is known?

First of regional water has been ranging from 29-31C for many days. The Coral Reef Watch sea surface temperatures for July 28, 2016 follow. A recent SST from a local buoy was 31.0 C.

Source: Coral Reef Watch, Google Earth

These SST's are 1-2 C higher than normal, causing concern that these reefs and others nearby may experience coral bleaching as the summer continues.

The July 28, 2016 CRW sea surface temperature anomalies:

Source: Coral Reef Watch, Google Earth

Also, NOAA's Coral Reef Watch has posted a bleaching warning for the East Flower Garden Bank reefs and others in this area of the Gulf this summer.

According to G.P. Schmahl, the East Flower Gardens Bank Sanctuary Superintendent, ""We know of no spills that have recently occurred near the Flower Garden Banks."  

Dr. Gittings added, "In addition, large plumes of low-salinity coastal water have moved offshore following months of extreme rainfall in the region. That water is rich with plankton, nutrients and chemicals that arrive to the Gulf through runoff and river discharges. As the plumes decay, oxygen levels in the water can decrease."

"Combined, these stressors could make coral reefs animals and plants more prone to disease outbreaks, or simply fuel the growth of bacterial or algae mats that smother the reefs. Scientists from around the world are offering advice and assistance in trying to help discover the cause."

These reefs on the banks are somewhat isolated, which may have protected them from earlier human and natural impacts.  But now they are succumbing to ... to what? 

As Gittings account ends, "The sanctuary and the science community are desperately trying to figure that out."

So now, in addition to red tide, harmful algae bloom, coral bleaching, deoxygenation, and human run-off, we add "white matting" to the onslaught of coral reef decimation. 

A deadly white mat coats a sponge between star and brain coral at the East Flower Garden Banks. Image credit: FGBNMS/G.P. Schmahl.

Sources: 

NOAA: http://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/news/jul16/noaa-scientists-report-mass-die-off-of-invertebrates-at-east-flower-garden-bank.html

Coral Reef Watch: 5 km Google Earth kml

Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary: http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/website/google_maps/FGB/mapsFGB.htm

Russian Arctic "Trembling Tundra" Simmering Carbon Dioxide and Methane

The Siberian Times just published a brief field report of carbon dioxide and methane bubbling from permafrost on Bleyy Island, just off the Yamal Peninsula in the Russian Arctic. Belyy Island is located here:

Source: Google Maps

The area has experienced very high sea surface and air temperature anomalies through the last few weeks.

The sea surface temperature anomalies are from Coral Reef Watch SST anomalies, and the air temperature anomalies are from Climate Reanalyzer, up to 20 C above normal in the area. They are displayed as a Google Earth image.

The researchers are popping through layers of grass, and sampling carbon dixode and methane bubbling out of the ground from underlying permafrost.

Spongy ground with gas pocket. Siberian Times

Gas bubbling from permafrost source. Siberian Times

Field sampling the gases.

YouTube of this incident is found at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06Xc3LtZRWo

The Siberian Times reports, "This extraordinary sight - in a video filmed of the tundra on remote Belyy Island in the Kara Sea off the Yamal Peninsula coastline - was witnessed by a scientific research expedition. Researchers Alexander Sokolov and Dorothee Ehrich spotted 15 patches of trembling or bubbling grass-covered ground."

"Alexander Sokolov is head of ecological R&D station of the Institute of Ecology of Plants and Animals of the Ural Department of the RAS in Labytnangi, Tyumen region. Ehrich is a researcher at the University of Tromso, The Arctic University of Norway."

"When punctured they emitted methane and carbon dioxide, according to measurements, although so far no details have been given. The reason is as yet unclear, but one possible explanation of the phenomenon is abnormal heat that caused permafrost to thaw, releasing gases."

When one views satellite imagery of the methane concentrations over the Russian Arctic, they are clearly higher this year. This story is one example of atmospheric and ocean heating is accelerating increasing permafrost greenhouse gas emissions.

Source: Siberian Times  http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0679-trembling-tundra-the-latest-weird-phenomenon-in-siberias-land-of-craters/

The Global "El Nino": SST Anomalies Above .5 C Globally for a Year

Each month NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) the former NCDC, releases latitude ranges of global land and sea surface temperature anomalies that help depict where global temperature variation is occurring on land and in the ocean. The monthly data covers January, 1880 through May, 2016. The anomalies are based on a 1971-2000 climatology, and thus the anomalies are higher than the current 1981-2010 anomalies generally publicized.

Source for the 1971-2000 base: see Read Me: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/noaaglobaltemp/operational/timeseries/readme.timeseries

Latitude Ranged Temperature Anomalies Source: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/noaaglobaltemp/operational/timeseries/

This posts demonstrates how Arctic Sea surface temperatures are changing global ocean heat and climate impacts. The anomalies are based on the ERSSTv4 data set, using the NCDC 1971-2000 base.

First, here is the global ocean anomalies from 90S-90N, for Jan 1880-May 2016. The climb since the 1970's is obvious, and is impacted by increasing global warming caused by CO2 rise.

Source: NCEI/NCDC (link above), Graphics A4R

When we add the sea surface temperature anomalies by Northern and Southern Hemisphere, it is apparent that northern CO2 emissions have had a stronger impact on warming the Northern Hemisphere oceans. The NH SSTA's jumped considerably in 2014-2016, peaking at .95C above the 1971-2000 base - almost a "Moderate El Nino" in strength.

Source: NCEI/NCDC (link above), Graphics A4R

The greatest contributor to the Northern Hemisphere SST anomaly has been warming in the Arctic, from 60-90N. While there is stronger variability month to month, overall, the Arctic warming is having a major impact on global ocean warming overall. Here is the monthly detail from 1950 to May, 2016. The blue line being the global SSTA, the red line the NH, and the green line revealing the jump in warming beginning to 2003 in 60-90N. If the Arctic had a Nino scale, it would be in an almost constant El Nino state for the last several years. Since March, 2009, there has only been one month below .50 C.

Source: NCEI/NCDC (link above), Graphics A4R

So what does this warming look like mapped through time? Here is the 1880-May 2016 GISS TEMP data set visualization for ERSSTv4 SSTA with the 1971-2000 base. Anything orange, red or brown is basically an "El Nino" level of anomaly.

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/time_series.html

What the data reveals is clear compelling evidence of warming, much of it in the Arctic. It also reveals the "Global El Nino" We are now living with.

Super El Nino Over? Perhaps Not. Base Periods Matter!

In May-June, 2016, it was announced by various official climate agencies, organizations and media outlets that one of the strongest El Nino's recorded was "dead." 

For example, on April 11, 2016, the Washington Post's Angela Fritz, called the "Godzilla El Nino" dead. 
Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/04/11/godzilla-el-nino-is-dead/  In reality, the Nino 3.4 SST's had only dropped below 1C, and it was not till the end of May that Australia's BOM called it over.

El Nino certainly looks over in the June, 2016 SST anomaly map from Climate.gov:

Source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/tropical-pacific-continues-cool-june-2016

This last week (July 11), we were well into ENSO neutral, based upon the CPC Weekly ENSO update which depicted this: 

Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

Each of these SST anomalies are based upon the SST averages for the years 1981-2010, the current climatological base for determining ENSO SST anomaly values. The science community consensus is to use a 30 year scale which slides every 5 years, to map an El Nino against the most recent observed climate. I understand the rationale and support it.
Source: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_change.shtml

However, the question that kept bugging me was....so how do these anomalies compare to actual Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures over time? 

NCDC ERSSTv4 Nino Indices SST's

Fortunately the National Climate Data Center (NCDC), makes available the ERSSTv4 reconstructed and observed sea surface temperatures for the Nino regions from January, 1854 through the most recent month. 

The "Read Me" is here: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v4/index/Readme

The actual SST's by month are here: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v4/index/ersst.v4.el_nino.sst.dat

The NOAA Climate.gov explanation for ERSSTv4 is well worth the read at:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/exactly-same-completely-different-why-we-have-so-many-different-ways

The basis for measuring El Nino/La Nina is warmth or coolness in what is called Nino 3.4, in the central Pacific.

Source: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php

So what is the actual monthly sea surface temperature trend in this region from 1854-2016? Well, this:

Source NCDC ERSSTv4 SSTs (link above), A4R graphics

What is noticeable, is that beginning in the 1970's the trend curves upward as SST's begin to warm globally, a topic for another post

Also, with the ERSSTv4 actual temperatures. prior climatological bases can be calculated. For the sake of this post, I calculated 1854-1883, 1881-1910, 1951-1980, 1971-2000 and the current one, 1981-1910. Here is what the actual average SST's look like by month for those bases:

Source: NCDC ERSSTv4 SSTs (link above), A4R graphics

So how much difference is there between climatological base periods? There is an "El Nino" difference between 1854-1883 vs 1981-2010 and for many months in the 1881-1910 vs 1981-2010.

Source: NCDC data (link above), A4R graphics

Also El Ninos and La Ninas are rated by strength or severity based upon how strong they are. They are classified as Weak (with a 0.5 to 0.9 SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0 to 1.4), Strong (1.5 to 1.9) and Very Strong (≥ 2.0). No category has been officially created for SST anomalies above 2.5 C.

With these differences in mind, here is the impact of using the earlier base periods to create SST anomalies.

We'll work backwards through time to observe what happens to our current ENSO neutral, and the "Godzilla El Nino."

Here is the current monthly Nino 3.4 graph for January, 1854 through June, 2016, using the 1981-2010 base period.

Source: NCDC data, A4R graphics

There are four very strong El Nino's, with anomalies above 2C: in 1887, 1982, 1997, and 2015.

When we step back in time to a 1971-2000 base, the SST anomalies are higher:

Source: NCDC Data (link above), Graphics, A4R

Note the SSTAs move higher, and the 1889 El Nino joins the "Very Strong" El Nino category. However, our "current" El Nino moves above 2.5 C, making it a new category - perhaps to be called a "Very Very Strong" (VVS) event, which barely nudges out the 1997 event as the all time high anomaly. The 1971-2000 base is used by the NCDC for its El Nino reporting. See the "Read Me" http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v4/index/Readme

GISS TEMP

Goddard issues its standard monthly reports on the 1951-1980 base. To compare to the global Goddard ERSSTv4 reporting, here is the NCDC Nino 3.4 using that base:

Source: NCDC data (link above), A4R graphics

Each El Nino SSTA is stronger, with both 1997 and 2015 in the "Very Very Strong" (VVS) with a 2.66 C anomaly in November, 2015.

At times, the earliest Goddard SST base available is used for "pre-industrial" comparison of SST and air temperature change. The base is 1881-1910 data. What happens when we move the SST anomaly base back to this "pre-industrial" period is sobering:

Source: NCDC data (link above), A4R graphics

We now have almost four "Very Very Strong" (VVS) El Nino events, 1877-1878 is almost there, along with 1983, 1997 and 2015. With 1997 at 2.85 C anomaly and 2015 at 2.86 C anomaly, we are close to needing new superlatives.

While there are larger uncertainties in the 1854-1883 sea surface temperatures, the following demonstrates how powerful the 1997 and 2015 El Nino high point were compared to past conditions:

Source: NCDC data, A4R Graphics

With this oldest available SST base, the power of these El Nino's becomes even more pronounced. The 1878, 1889, 1972 and 1983 El Ninos are all "Very Very strong" (VVS) anomalies. However, the 1997 and 2015 El Nino peaks deserve that new superlative - Godzilla El Ninos. Perhaps a "GZ" designation.

Sadly, if we keep increasing global heat content, we may have to find a scarier monster for naming SST anomalies above 3.5 C.

Finally, here is the comparison between the 1981-2010 and 1854-1883 bases:

Source: NCDC data (link above). Graphics A4R.

The SSTA numbers above the red peaks are the 1854-1883 base readings, those beside the peaks are the 1981-2010 SST anomalies. The difference is a "weak" El Nino in itself.

So what about the current El Nino not being over?

The June NCDC SST anomalies against these different bases are:

1981-2010:   .41 C - ENSO neutral, as generally reported.
1971-2000:   .54 C - Weak El Nino
1951-1980:   .66 C - Weak El Nino
1881-1910:   .88 C - Weak El Nino
1854-1883: 1.03 C - Moderate El Nino

Given the above bases, El Nino is not over - even worse, we are in historical hot water - a "Global El Nino."