Mauna Loa Weekly CO2 5.04 ppm Higher Than 2015 - Highest Increase Recorded

Source: NOAA ESRL: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

Today's Mauna Loa CO2 weekly average figure is astounding. This time of year, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are declining as usual in a normal Northern Hemisphere summer. In a post-El Nino environment, one would expect CO2 increases to slow even more compared to prior years. However CO2 levels in Hawaii for the last seven days is 5.04 ppm higher than the same week last year.

Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

This is the first weekly average ever reported above 5 ppm since records began in 1974. 

For example the week ending June 12, 2016 was 4.78 ppm higher that the corresponding one in 2015. Similarly the week ending September 6, 1998 was 4.67 ppm than 1997.

In fact, only 16 weekly averages have had greater than 4.00 ppm increase over the prior year since 1974. Three occurred in 1998, Over half (nine) have been reported in 2016.

The table is all weeks with higher than 4 ppm increase over prior year, by one year change.

 Year    Mon   Day  CO2 ppm              Pr Yr ppm     1 Yr Chng 

2016	7	31	403.47	6	398.43	5.04
2016	6	12	407.20	6	402.42	4.78
1998	9	6	364.56	6	359.89	4.67
2016	4	10	408.69	6	404.12	4.57
2016	5	22	408.31	6	403.79	4.52
2013	2	3	396.67	7	392.16	4.51
1998	9	27	364.10	7	359.61	4.49
2010	4	18	393.35	7	388.97	4.38
2016	1	31	404.55	5	400.22	4.33
2016	4	17	407.42	7	403.20	4.22
1998	8	16	365.53	7	361.36	4.17
2016	5	29	407.53	5	403.37	4.16
2016	4	24	407.79	6	403.64	4.15
2014	4	13	401.56	7	397.52	4.04
2016	3	20	405.48	6	401.45	4.03
2012	5	6	397.13	7	393.12	4.01

Source: ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_weekly_mlo.txt

There does seem to be a change in the trend of weekly change from 1975-2016. As noted above, most weekly 1 year change increases above 4.00 ppm occur after 2010, and most in the warming period or El Nino through 2016. This graph shows those changes.

What we are witnessing has no parallel in prior year increases, and while one week does not make a trend, the concern of ever increasing CO2 concentrations in our atmosphere at an accelerating rate is something humanity wants to definitely avoid.

Gulf Coral Reef Dying From New Unknown Cause - White Matting

Since 2014, our oceans have experienced terrible impacts from red tide and global coral bleaching which have caused global coral mortality events. 

Now, NOAA announced this week that a new menace has been discovered with high capacity for reef and entire ecosystem destruction.

On Monday, July 25, 2016, divers discovered "green, hazy water," over East Flower Garden Bank in Gulf of Mexico. Usually, it is blue and mostly clear. The Banks are about 100 miles off the Texas and Louisiana coast in the Gulf of Mexico.

Source: Google Earth

Arriving at the bottom they "were stunned to find ..... huge patches of ugly white mats coating corals and sponges, and dead animals littering the bottom on the East Flower Garden Bank, a reef normally filled with color and marine life. The reef, which is part of Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, is considered one of the healthiest anywhere in the region." 
Source: http://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/news/jul16/noaa-scientists-report-mass-die-off-of-invertebrates-at-east-flower-garden-bank.html

The pictures are appalling:

A white mat of unknown material coats a dying sponge at the East Flower Garden Bank during a large-scale mortality event. Image: FGBNMS/G.P. Schmahl

A massive star coral impacted by a large-scale mortality event at the East Flower Garden Bank. These corals are hundreds and hundreds of years old, and can be lost in a matter of days. Image credit: FGBNMS/G.P. Schmahl

Tissue sloughing off a recently dead brain coral succumbing to a large-scale mortality event at the East Flower Garden Bank. Image credit: FGBNMS/G.P. Schmahl

These photos are not isolated samples. 

According to  Dr. Steve Gittings, NOAA's Chief Scientist of the Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, "The divers and researchers found unprecedented numbers of dying corals, sponges, sea urchins, brittle stars, clams and other invertebrates on large but separate patches of the reef. Sanctuary Research Coordinator Emma Hickerson reported extensive white mats covering corals and sponges, and estimates the mortality of corals to be nearly 50 percent in some of the affected areas. The spatial extent of the event is still being determined, but Hickerson says the die-off has so far been seen at three dive sites that charter boats typically use when they visit the bank."

As NOLA, a New Orleans paper, summarized NOAA's statements, "The bank is undergoing a "large-scale mortality event of unknown cause." 
Source: http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2016/07/gulf_reef_dying_of_unknown_cau.html

NOAA Quarantine in Place

Gitting stated, "NOAA is recommending the public avoid diving, fishing, and boating activities on the East Flower Garden Bank. This is primarily to prevent the transmission of whatever is causing the mass mortality to unaffected locations, but also could protect divers from ingesting what could be harmful pathogens or toxins." However, with all the unknowns, that quarantine zone may expand to surrounding reefs:

Source: NOAA National Marine Sanctuaries Map

What is sad is that the East and West Flower Garden reefs have not previously experienced major coral bleaching or disease. And, what is happening now is not coral bleaching, since more than corals are being affected. So what is known?

First of regional water has been ranging from 29-31C for many days. The Coral Reef Watch sea surface temperatures for July 28, 2016 follow. A recent SST from a local buoy was 31.0 C.

Source: Coral Reef Watch, Google Earth

These SST's are 1-2 C higher than normal, causing concern that these reefs and others nearby may experience coral bleaching as the summer continues.

The July 28, 2016 CRW sea surface temperature anomalies:

Source: Coral Reef Watch, Google Earth

Also, NOAA's Coral Reef Watch has posted a bleaching warning for the East Flower Garden Bank reefs and others in this area of the Gulf this summer.

According to G.P. Schmahl, the East Flower Gardens Bank Sanctuary Superintendent, ""We know of no spills that have recently occurred near the Flower Garden Banks."  

Dr. Gittings added, "In addition, large plumes of low-salinity coastal water have moved offshore following months of extreme rainfall in the region. That water is rich with plankton, nutrients and chemicals that arrive to the Gulf through runoff and river discharges. As the plumes decay, oxygen levels in the water can decrease."

"Combined, these stressors could make coral reefs animals and plants more prone to disease outbreaks, or simply fuel the growth of bacterial or algae mats that smother the reefs. Scientists from around the world are offering advice and assistance in trying to help discover the cause."

These reefs on the banks are somewhat isolated, which may have protected them from earlier human and natural impacts.  But now they are succumbing to ... to what? 

As Gittings account ends, "The sanctuary and the science community are desperately trying to figure that out."

So now, in addition to red tide, harmful algae bloom, coral bleaching, deoxygenation, and human run-off, we add "white matting" to the onslaught of coral reef decimation. 

A deadly white mat coats a sponge between star and brain coral at the East Flower Garden Banks. Image credit: FGBNMS/G.P. Schmahl.

Sources: 

NOAA: http://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/news/jul16/noaa-scientists-report-mass-die-off-of-invertebrates-at-east-flower-garden-bank.html

Coral Reef Watch: 5 km Google Earth kml

Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary: http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/website/google_maps/FGB/mapsFGB.htm

Russian Arctic "Trembling Tundra" Simmering Carbon Dioxide and Methane

The Siberian Times just published a brief field report of carbon dioxide and methane bubbling from permafrost on Bleyy Island, just off the Yamal Peninsula in the Russian Arctic. Belyy Island is located here:

Source: Google Maps

The area has experienced very high sea surface and air temperature anomalies through the last few weeks.

The sea surface temperature anomalies are from Coral Reef Watch SST anomalies, and the air temperature anomalies are from Climate Reanalyzer, up to 20 C above normal in the area. They are displayed as a Google Earth image.

The researchers are popping through layers of grass, and sampling carbon dixode and methane bubbling out of the ground from underlying permafrost.

Spongy ground with gas pocket. Siberian Times

Gas bubbling from permafrost source. Siberian Times

Field sampling the gases.

YouTube of this incident is found at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06Xc3LtZRWo

The Siberian Times reports, "This extraordinary sight - in a video filmed of the tundra on remote Belyy Island in the Kara Sea off the Yamal Peninsula coastline - was witnessed by a scientific research expedition. Researchers Alexander Sokolov and Dorothee Ehrich spotted 15 patches of trembling or bubbling grass-covered ground."

"Alexander Sokolov is head of ecological R&D station of the Institute of Ecology of Plants and Animals of the Ural Department of the RAS in Labytnangi, Tyumen region. Ehrich is a researcher at the University of Tromso, The Arctic University of Norway."

"When punctured they emitted methane and carbon dioxide, according to measurements, although so far no details have been given. The reason is as yet unclear, but one possible explanation of the phenomenon is abnormal heat that caused permafrost to thaw, releasing gases."

When one views satellite imagery of the methane concentrations over the Russian Arctic, they are clearly higher this year. This story is one example of atmospheric and ocean heating is accelerating increasing permafrost greenhouse gas emissions.

Source: Siberian Times  http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0679-trembling-tundra-the-latest-weird-phenomenon-in-siberias-land-of-craters/

The Global "El Nino": SST Anomalies Above .5 C Globally for a Year

Each month NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) the former NCDC, releases latitude ranges of global land and sea surface temperature anomalies that help depict where global temperature variation is occurring on land and in the ocean. The monthly data covers January, 1880 through May, 2016. The anomalies are based on a 1971-2000 climatology, and thus the anomalies are higher than the current 1981-2010 anomalies generally publicized.

Source for the 1971-2000 base: see Read Me: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/noaaglobaltemp/operational/timeseries/readme.timeseries

Latitude Ranged Temperature Anomalies Source: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/noaaglobaltemp/operational/timeseries/

This posts demonstrates how Arctic Sea surface temperatures are changing global ocean heat and climate impacts. The anomalies are based on the ERSSTv4 data set, using the NCDC 1971-2000 base.

First, here is the global ocean anomalies from 90S-90N, for Jan 1880-May 2016. The climb since the 1970's is obvious, and is impacted by increasing global warming caused by CO2 rise.

Source: NCEI/NCDC (link above), Graphics A4R

When we add the sea surface temperature anomalies by Northern and Southern Hemisphere, it is apparent that northern CO2 emissions have had a stronger impact on warming the Northern Hemisphere oceans. The NH SSTA's jumped considerably in 2014-2016, peaking at .95C above the 1971-2000 base - almost a "Moderate El Nino" in strength.

Source: NCEI/NCDC (link above), Graphics A4R

The greatest contributor to the Northern Hemisphere SST anomaly has been warming in the Arctic, from 60-90N. While there is stronger variability month to month, overall, the Arctic warming is having a major impact on global ocean warming overall. Here is the monthly detail from 1950 to May, 2016. The blue line being the global SSTA, the red line the NH, and the green line revealing the jump in warming beginning to 2003 in 60-90N. If the Arctic had a Nino scale, it would be in an almost constant El Nino state for the last several years. Since March, 2009, there has only been one month below .50 C.

Source: NCEI/NCDC (link above), Graphics A4R

So what does this warming look like mapped through time? Here is the 1880-May 2016 GISS TEMP data set visualization for ERSSTv4 SSTA with the 1971-2000 base. Anything orange, red or brown is basically an "El Nino" level of anomaly.

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/time_series.html

What the data reveals is clear compelling evidence of warming, much of it in the Arctic. It also reveals the "Global El Nino" We are now living with.