Sunday, July 8, 2018

Global CO2 hits 408.96 ppm in April 2018

On July 5, NOAA ESRL published the preliminary April, 2018 global CO2 results. The world reached 408.96 ppm, up 2.63 ppm over April, 2017. 


This continues the monthly increases above 2 ppm for the fifth month, without a boost often associated with an El Nino. It continues the slow acceleration of atmospheric CO2 concentration buildup.


While April 2017 to 2018 increase was 2.63 ppm, the five and ten year change in CO2 makes the accelerating trends more apparent. 

The 2018 concentration was 12.44 ppm above April 2013, and was the 26th month with an approximate 12 ppm increase. 

The change between 2018 and April 2008, was in increase of 22.67 ppm, supporting the slowly accelerating rate of increase of CO2 concentration. It is the 21st consecutive month with a 10 year change above 22 ppm.


It is likely that April will be the peak global CO2 concentration for this year. However if  trends hold, we are on track to exceed 410 ppm globally between February to April, 2019. That will be the first time in human history the planet will experience a 10 ppm change on CO2 concentration in 48 months - or perhaps less. 


This trend that takes us toward future climate disaster that we want to avoid. 

A continued increase of 10 ppm every 48 months places us on track to double preindustrial CO2 (280 ppm) by 2080. Further increases in emissions may put us on the path of adding 10 ppm every 36 months, which potentially shortens the time to doubling (560 ppm) into the 2060's.

Global CO2 Future Estimates 10 ppm Increases
Year 60 month Year 48 month Year 36 month
2015 400 2015 400 2015 400
2020 410 2019 410 2018 410
2025 420 2023 420 2021 420
2030 430 2027 430 2024 430
2035 440 2031 440 2027 440
2040 450 2035 450 2030 450
2045 460 2039 460 2033 460
2050 470 2043 470 2036 470
2055 480 2047 480 2039 480
2060 490 2051 490 2042 490
2065 500 2055 500 2045 500
2070 510 2059 510 2048 510
2075 520 2063 520 2051 520
2080 530 2067 530 2054 530
2085 540 2071 540 2057 540
2090 550 2075 550 2060 550
2095 560 2079 560 2063 560
2100 570 2083 570 2066 570
2105 580 2087 580 2069 580
2110 590 2091 590 2072 590
2115 600 2095 600 2075 600

The world being left to future generations will not be with world we live in today. As Christine LaGarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, stated in Riyadh in October, 2017, "If we do not do anything about climate change now, in fifty years’ time we will be toasted, roasted and grilled.” 

Source: Christine LaGarde,  “Future Investment Initiative,” Day 1, The Big Shift: What New Frameworks are Needed to Understand the Future? Panel Discussion, (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: October 24, 2017),

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