NOAA ESRL Global April, 2019 CO2 Above 411 ppm

NOAA ESRL just published its April, 2019 preliminary global CO2 mean of 411.50 ppm, an increase of 2.65 ppm over April, 2018. 

This is the 17th month in a row with above a 2 ppm increase. The change over five years is 13.1 ppm, a new record for any five year period. The 10 year change from April, 2009 is 23.74 ppm, the highest 10 year rate of change.

When we compare to longer time frames, global CO2 has increased:

Since 1980 (339.87 ppm): 21.08% - NOAA ESRL global CO2
Since 1958 (315.97 ppm): 30.28% - Keeling MLO
Since 1880 (287.77 ppm): 43.00% - EPICA 2015 Ice Core
Since 1750 (277.60 ppm): 48.23% - EPICA 2015 Ice Core
Since 22964 BCE (180.57 ppm LGM): 127.89% - EPICA 2015 Ice Core

Using the EPICA 2015 revised ice core data, global CO2 has increased 230.93 ppm since the last glacial CO2 ppm low. 

It only took a 100 ppm increase to move from the last glacial maximum temperatures (an approximate -9C anomaly) to our pre-industrial 1750 or 1880 climate. Since then we have added an additional 130 ppm of CO2.... 

The temperature and climate disruption impacts from this increase have not yet been fully experienced, we have only started transient climate warming. 

We have just started a global flame-thrower.

Global CO2 Passes 410 ppm in February 2019

On May 6th, NOAA ESRL reported that our world reached a global atmospheric CO2 concentration over 410 ppmv. This is not the Mauna Loa mean, which often substitutes for the actual global indicator, but the preliminary result of the Global Greenhouse Gas Network, and reflects the real mean of the world-wide reporting network.

The longer NOAA ESRL trend demonstrates the accelerating achievement of each new 10 ppm increase. 

If this 410 ppm mean holds through future updates, we will have increased the global CO2 concentration by 10 ppm in 47 months - less than four years. More on that sobering significance later.

Compared to 2018, global CO2 increased by 2.64 ppm, partially due to increased emissions, and perhaps influenced by the mild El Nino or other feedbacks. 

Furthermore, we have increased CO2 by 12.85 ppm in the last five years. 

Over the last 10 years, comparing February 2019 to 2009, the carbon dioxide concentration has increased 23.35 ppm, a new record acceleration - not just for the last 10 years - but the last 800,000 years. It has never happened before in human history or the natural environment. This is not normal.

It is deeply troubling that we have increased our global CO2 concentration by 70 ppm in 39 years. How troubling becomes obvious as we review the trend. 

Here is how long it has taken us to reach each 10 ppm milestone in the NOAA ESRL data. 

In May, 1960 we hit 320 ppm as a monthly mean for the first time at Mauna Loa (MLO). Here is how many months/years it took to reach each 10 ppm increase after that date. In the table (Glbl) is the NOAA ESRL Global Greenhouse Gas Network monthly mean.

Site       CO2 ppm Date          Months    Years

MLO	320 ppm	May-60
MLO	330 ppm	May-72	144	12.00
Glbl	340 ppm	May-80	96	8.00
Glbl	350 ppm	May-87	84	7.00
Glbl	360 ppm	Jan-95	92	7.67
Glbl	370 ppm	Apr-00	63	5.25
Glbl	380 ppm	Apr-05	60	5.00
Glbl	390 ppm	Dec-10	68	5.67
Glbl	400 ppm	Mar-2015	51	4.25
Glbl	410 ppm	Feb-2019	47	3.92

Here is the graphic, which depicts how quickly we are increasing the concentration rate in 10 ppm increments:

This slash in the rate increase is gut wrenching - a bad roller coaster going only one direction. It is worse than it looks when we add in the ice core data. That helps us have a full picture of the global CO2 rate of change through millennia. 

The ice core data used here is from the EPA, Vostock, EPICA and Law Dome records found at: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-atmospheric-concentrations-greenhouse-gases

Let's just examine the last interglacial cycle from 15615 BCE (the last time we were approximately at 190 ppm (and in an ice age), to the present 410 ppm. The graphic below depicts how many years it took to add the next 10 ppm to the global CO2 concentration. 

For example, to increase from 190 ppm in 15615 BCE to 200 ppm it took 896 years, till 14709 BCE. It took 586 years to reach 210 ppm, and another 503 to reach 220 ppm. 

There is significant variability after this point. It took 5,923 years increase from 250-260 ppm, and 4,204 years to increase from 270-280 ppm. 

However in 1780, when we reached 280 ppm, it was the beginning of the Industrial Revolution - the human use of fossil fuels. It took till 1880, just 100 years, to reach 290 ppm. Humans then turbo-charged 10 ppm increases from millennia to decades and less - in less than a century. 

What we have done in the last 60 years practically causes heart palpitations when you think of the coming changes this CO2 increase will cause to the environment - and for human civilization.

Ponder this. The 3.9 years to go from 400 to 410 ppm is .00065 of the 5,923 years it took to go from 250 to 260 ppm. Or .00093 of the 4,204 years to go from 270-280 ppm. if it makes one feel better, It is 3.9 percent of the time to go from 280 to 290 ppm, from 1780 to 1880.

There is another traumatic perspective of we have inflicted on the global climate system and humanity - the adding of 70 ppm CO2 in the last 39 years. 

Let's compare that increase, from 340 to 410 ppm, to every other 70 ppm change since the past ice age, in increments of 10 ppm. In other words, how many years did it take for the same 70 ppm change, for example, from 190 to 260 ppm? At 190 ppm we were in an ice age and at 260 - we were not. 

Here is every 70 ppm change in 10 ppm incremental steps. It is obvious that human generated CO2 emissions are short circuiting natural processes. 

In conclusion, here are three things to ponder from the above graph.

• The change from 210 to 280 ppm (emerging from the last ice age to beginning of the Industrial Revolution) took 15,900 years.

• The change from 280 ppm to 350 ppm (reached in 1987, when the international community and energy industry unequivocally knew that emissions were going to cause a problem for human society) took only 202 years.

• The last 60 ppm increase (350 to 410 ppm) has only taken 32 years. This has never happened in 800,000 years. In fact, in the ice core data there is no record of a 10 ppm increase in 39 years - until human emissions impacts in the 1900's.

Global CO2 concentrations have never increased by 10 ppm in 47 months. There is no comparison in 800,000 years of ice core data. Nothing in paleo-climate proxies. Only in models with polynomial, or exponential, curves.

We are in uncharted "terror incognita" (pun intended).

Imagine what the next increment looks like. Imagine if we do not accelerate efforts to quickly drop emissions. ACDC comes to mind....

"No stop signs, speed limit
Nobody's gonna slow me down...." 

We're on a Highway to Hell.

Global CH4 up 8.4 ppb in November 2018

According to the NOAA ESRL latest monthly data release, November, 2018 saw the planet experience a global methane mean of 1867.2 ppb, an increase of 8.4 ppb over 2017.

During the past five years we have experienced an increase of 46.8 ppb, and in the last 10 years, a 69.8 ppb increase.

As recently reported, the science community is still determining the mix of sources driving this increase since 2007, and the acceleration since 2014. What has been proposed are changes in biological sources such as emissions from cattle, a drop in hydroxyls in the atmosphere which impact the length of time before methane breaks down, or agricultural production that is increasing methane emissions, particularly from rice production. A final source suggested is an increase in methane released by new natural gas and oil production. 

Of significant concern is that natural feedbacks may begin or increase. If this occurs - despite cuts in human emissions - natural sources will offset our cuts and lead to future climate change.

Global CO2 December 2018 - On Track for 410+ ppm in March/April 2019

Global CO2: December 2018

In December, 2018, NOAA/ESRL reported global carbon dioxide at 409.36 ppm, or 2.83 ppm above December, 2017. That annual change was the highest since those associated with the 2015-2016 El Nino, when the world experienced increases above 3 ppm for 12 consecutive months. 

Source: NOAA/ESRL

This month continues the unbroken CO2 concentration rise observed at Mauna Loa since 1959, then globally since 1980.

Five and Ten Year Increases

When December, 2018 is compared to 2013, global carbon dioxide has increased 12.71 ppm, the highest five year change since July, 2017 when we experienced a five year increase of 13.09 ppm. 

The last three months have experienced a decadal change above 23 ppm, with December having the highest at 23.32 ppm. The five and ten year rates continue trends which reflect ever increasing global emissions at increasing rates of change.

Passing 410 ppm

The world is on track to pass 410 ppm in 2019. It is possible this will be reached in February, quite probable in March, and almost certain in April, 2019. It is also probable that the global concentration will exceed 411 ppm in April or May 2019, given historical changes of 2+ ppm between December and April/May in recent previous years.

Quicker Milestones

Of greater concern is reaching 10 ppm increases in shorter times. If we pass 410 ppm in March, 2019, it will be only 48 months after passing 400 ppm in March, 2015. To increase from 320 to 330 ppm took 12 years (May 1960 to May 1972). We are now blowing through these 10 ppm milestones in 1/3 the time. 

The Future Trend?

If we stabilize carbon dioxide concentration increases for each future 10 ppm at 48 months, the planet will experience a doubling of CO2 compared to pre-industrial by 2080 and over 610 ppm by 2100. However, given that emissions are not slowing, combined with potential environmental system feedbacks, we may reach 560 ppm sooner, with less ability to influence the trend with decreasing emissions. More on this in another post.

A World of Fire and Smoke - A July 20 2018 Snapshot

Over the past few weeks US news has covered fires in the West; in California, Nevada, Oregon, New Mexico and Arizona They have burned millions of acres of forests, grassland, grazing land and most sadly, wheat crops ready for harvest in Oregon. Some fires are still burning and threaten homes, towns and livelihoods. 

Sources: 
Nevada fires: https://elkodaily.com/news/local/it-s-gone-it-s-gone-nation-s-largest-wildfire/article_baba42b7-ce69-560e-b9e3-90ac7f3a6052.html
Oregon fires: http://www.tampabay.com/oregon-wheat-farmers-try-to-stop-fire-thats-consuming-crops-ap_national1c60c565124248da961102bb75a75149

Here is a snapshot of US and Canadian fires and smoke from the NOAA EOSDIS Worldview for July 20th. A click on the image or a visit to NOAA EOSDIS Worldview reveals the US and Canadian fires as red dots in the VIIRS imagery. 

Source: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Features,MOPITT_CO_Daily_Total_Column_L2(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Fires_375m_Night,VIIRS_SNPP_Fires_375m_Day&t=2018-07-20-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-130.6479735381917,21.52998176747436,-63.14797353819172,54.82295051747436

Here are a couple of closer views:

The Western US

Source: NOAA EOSDIS Worldview, July 20, 2018

Eastern Canada

Source: NOAA EOSDIS Worldview, July 20, 2018

But how does this compare to the rest of the world?

The media has reported on fires in Sweden and Finland over the last few days, with as many as 60 forest fires burning in Sweden and dozens in Finland. What has not been reported are the Russian fires burning in the Kola Peninsula and Western Russia, many well above the Arctic Circle.

Source: https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/borders/2018/07/forest-fire-spreads-across-border-russia-lapland

Scandinavian and Kola Peninsula Russian fires:
Source: NOAA EOSDIS Worldview, July 20, 2018

So what else is not being reported? 

Indonesia: 

Fires are burning in Indonesia and Australia, with the Indonesian fires potentially signalling a return of deforestation for more palm oil plantations. These fires cause smoke and haze to cover Malaysia and cause significant health hazards. Australia's fires may relate to drought conditions in its north.

Source: NOAA EOSDIS Worldview, July 20, 2018

Brazil: 

Amazon rainforest and savannah fires are are creating ongoing loss of habitat and biodiversity as agricultural interests destroy significant swathes of rainforest and open savannah areas. Fires in eastern Brazil, and the loss of forest in these areas is bringing the country closer to a tipping point in which forest loss leads to irreversible change in its climate.

As a recent Vox article reported, "But in a dramatic turnaround, tree cover loss doubled there (Brazil) from 2015 to 2017. As the World Resource Institute’s Frances Seymour writes, this is “in part due to unprecedented forest fires in the Amazon ... [and] to a relaxation of law enforcement efforts in the midst of the country’s ongoing political turmoil and fiscal crisis.”

"According to Carlos Nobre, a Brazilian scientist and expert on climate change, we’ve already deforested about 18 percent of the Amazon. Reaching 20 to 25 percent deforestation would cause the “system to flip to non-forest ecosystems in eastern, southern and central Amazonia,” he wrote with Thomas Lovejoy in a recent paper in Science Advances."

“We are very close to 20 percent,” he said Wednesday at the Oslo Tropical Forest Forum. “We need to stop completely Amazonian deforestation. We do not want the Amazon to become a global cattle ranch.”

In most tropical regions, demand for soy, beef, palm oil, and other commodities — as well as fires — is driving the bulk of deforestation. In Brazil, which lost 11 million acres of forest cover in 2017, the main use for cleared land is cattle pasture."

Source: https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/27/17503466/trees-deforestation-tropical-forests-climate-change

The brown areas in eastern Brazil represent areas undergoing long term drought and change in temperature, that are shifting the climate as deforestation occurs. The SPEI Global Drought Index 48 month base displays the tragic truth.

Source: SPEI Global Drought Monitor http://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#months=7#month=5#year=2018

Central Africa:

Almost nothing is reported on African forest and savanna fire impact in the Western media. Much of the African forest fire activity is related to agricultural production. As Global Forest Watch reported, "Tree cover loss in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) reached a record high in 2017, increasing 6 percent from 2016.  Agriculture, artisanal logging and charcoal production drove the tree cover loss, with nearly 70 percent of it occurring in agricultural areas known as the rural complex." 

Source:  https://blog.globalforestwatch.org/data/2017-was-the-second-worst-year-on-record-for-tropical-tree-cover-loss

However, like Brazil, if the global community does not work with central Africa, especially the Democratic Republic of the Congo, to slow charcoal fire use and deforestation, the world may lose another major carbon sink to becoming a carbon source.

Source: NOAA EOSDIS Worldview, July 20, 2018

Central Russia and Siberia

Massive and pervasive forest, peat and permafrost fires have burned in central and Siberian Russia since April. After initial reporting in April and May, the media in Russia went silent and Western media is not focused on the story, except when plumes of smoke cross the Arctic into Canada and then New England. 

Source: NOAA EOSDIS Worldview, July 20 2018

While the global community talks about deforestation in the tropics, deforestation by Russia deliberately not fighting these fires needs to be considered. However, it is so dry that it is almost impossible to do so on this large scale. 

The SPEI Global Drought Monitor makes this dilemma apparent. Some portions of central and Siberian Russia have experienced comparative high heat and deep drought for the last four years. as part of a decline that began in 2010.

Source: http://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#months=0#month=5#year=2018

While these torched areas may grow back, in some areas it will take a century or more for full restoration. In some cases because of the scale of what is destroyed, the forest may not return. But megatons of soot, ash and carbon monoxide are being released by these fires at high concentrations. Carbon monoxide concentrations in some areas are above 4800 ppbv.

Source: Earth Nullschool

These fires and resulting emissions are making it more challenging for the world to make progress in meeting a future 1.5 or 2C goal set in the Paris Climate Agreement.

Global CH4 Up 10.2 ppb in April 2018

On July 5th, NOAA ESRL released the preliminary April 2018 global mean CH4 concentration. This month's concentration reached 1858 ppb, which is 10.2 ppb above April, 2017. It is also the second consecutive month with increases above 10 ppb, since June, 2016. 

What is troublingly different is that June 2016's increase was still associated with the 2015-2016 El Nino. The March and April 2018 increases are not. Whether these remain as double digit increases will become clear over the next several months as additional site samples are submitted and tested. If they do, what is significant is that this increase of global methane emissions will be most likely be primarily from anthropogenic sources.

The April 2018 global mean concentration is 13 percent higher than April, 1984. We also are potentially observing an ongoing acceleration of CH4 increase in the atmosphere.

The five and ten year trends of CH4 mean concentration change reveal this global  acceleration. The April 2018 mean of 1858 ppb is 45.2 ppb above the same month in 2013. This is the second highest five year change, and is the 12th consecutive month of a five year change in concentration above 40 ppb.

The CH4 mean concentration change since April 2008 is 71.5 ppb. This is the third month in a row of a decadal concentration change above 70 ppb. Again, it is troubling that the only other time we have experienced a ten year change above 70 ppb was in response to the 2015-2016 strong El Nino. This time there is no El Nino affecting this methane increase.

With increases in global natural gas production, increasing fire emissions, and permafrost warming in the Arctic, it is quite likely that this trend will continue into the foreseeable future.

Source: NOAA ESRL: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/ 

Global CO2 hits 408.96 ppm in April 2018

On July 5, NOAA ESRL published the preliminary April, 2018 global CO2 results. The world reached 408.96 ppm, up 2.63 ppm over April, 2017. 

This continues the monthly increases above 2 ppm for the fifth month, without a boost often associated with an El Nino. It continues the slow acceleration of atmospheric CO2 concentration buildup.

While April 2017 to 2018 increase was 2.63 ppm, the five and ten year change in CO2 makes the accelerating trends more apparent. 

The 2018 concentration was 12.44 ppm above April 2013, and was the 26th month with an approximate 12 ppm increase. 

The change between 2018 and April 2008, was in increase of 22.67 ppm, supporting the slowly accelerating rate of increase of CO2 concentration. It is the 21st consecutive month with a 10 year change above 22 ppm.

It is likely that April will be the peak global CO2 concentration for this year. However if  trends hold, we are on track to exceed 410 ppm globally between February to April, 2019. That will be the first time in human history the planet will experience a 10 ppm change on CO2 concentration in 48 months - or perhaps less. 

This trend that takes us toward future climate disaster that we want to avoid. 

A continued increase of 10 ppm every 48 months places us on track to double preindustrial CO2 (280 ppm) by 2080. Further increases in emissions may put us on the path of adding 10 ppm every 36 months, which potentially shortens the time to doubling (560 ppm) into the 2060's.

Global CO2 Future Estimates 10 ppm Increases
Year	60 month		Year	48 month		Year	36 month
2015	400		2015	400		2015	400
2020	410		2019	410		2018	410
2025	420		2023	420		2021	420
2030	430		2027	430		2024	430
2035	440		2031	440		2027	440
2040	450		2035	450		2030	450
2045	460		2039	460		2033	460
2050	470		2043	470		2036	470
2055	480		2047	480		2039	480
2060	490		2051	490		2042	490
2065	500		2055	500		2045	500
2070	510		2059	510		2048	510
2075	520		2063	520		2051	520
2080	530		2067	530		2054	530
2085	540		2071	540		2057	540
2090	550		2075	550		2060	550
2095	560		2079	560		2063	560
2100	570		2083	570		2066	570
2105	580		2087	580		2069	580
2110	590		2091	590		2072	590
2115	600		2095	600		2075	600

The world being left to future generations will not be with world we live in today. As Christine LaGarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, stated in Riyadh in October, 2017, "If we do not do anything about climate change now, in fifty years’ time we will be toasted, roasted and grilled.” 

Source: Christine LaGarde,  “Future Investment Initiative,” Day 1, The Big Shift: What New Frameworks are Needed to Understand the Future? Panel Discussion, (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: October 24, 2017),

Super Typhoon Maria: Category 1 to 5 in 24 hours

On July 2, Super Typhoon Maria formed as a tropical depression at 2040 hours. Barely eight hours later, on July 3, 0410 hours Maria became a tropical storm near Guam. For the next 28 hours, Maria slowly strengthened as a tropical storm.

On July 5, 0840, it was like an explosion occurred, for in the space of 30 minutes, Maria spiked from a 53 knot tropical storm to a 72 knot typhoon, equal in strength to a category one hurricane.

Maria only remained at a category one equivalent hurricane strength for nine hours, when her pressure dropped and she blew through a category two to a category three equivalent hurricane in 2 hours, from July 5 1740 to 1950. Typhoon Maria only remained at a category three strength for five hours, when at July 6, 0040 hours, she became a super typhoon with 115 knot sustained winds.

Maria was not done strengthening. She accelerated to 135 knot sustained winds, a category 5 super typhoon by July 6, 0840 hours, in just eight hours. 

So from July 5, 0910 a category 1 to July 6, 0910 a category 5!

Sources:

Tropical Cyclone Scales: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales#Western_Pacific

Super Typhoon Maria Intensification: 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/10W.2dwind.txt

Super Typhoon commentary and updates: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/28799

March 2018 Global Mean CH4 up 11.2 ppb over March 2017

NOAA ESRL released its preliminary global mean CH4 on June 5 2018, with an initial reading of 1859.1 ppb. This mean was 11.2 ppb over March 2017. 

This continues the increase in global methane that has been observed globally by NOAA ESRL since 1983. It is almost a 13.4% increase in global mean methane since March, 1984.

This month's 11.2 ppb increase over March 2017, represents the highest rate of increase since December 2015, and if the results remain above a 10 ppb increase in the coming months, as more samples are collected, it will be the first month with an increase above 10 ppb since July 2016.

However, it is the longer trends that demonstrate the accelerating rate of increase of CH4 concentration in the atmosphere.

Since March 2013, global mean CH4 has increased by 46.1 ppb, the highest rate of increase since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the most since May, 1993. It is also the eleventh month of five year comparison increases over 40 ppb, last experienced in 1992-1993.

The ten year increase, since March, 2008 is 73.6 ppb. This is the highest 10 year change since March, 1999. It is obvious from the data and graphic, that methane continues to increase in concentration and reflects increasing global emissions.

Recent research has attributed the methane increases primarily to growth in livestock production and changes in rainfall in the tropics. However, according to the USDA global markets report, there has not been a major increase in livestock (cattle or swine) production since 2014. We have seen significant increases in CH4 concentration during that time.

USDA World Markets
Apr-18
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/livestock_poultry.pdf
Cattle Production
	Total Cattle Beginning Stocks	Total Cattle Production
2014	1,008,403	292,235
2015	979,636	288,195
2016	988,487	288,286
2017	995,342	293,224
2018 Oct	1,004,067	298,335
2018 Aor	1,001,841	296,618
Swine Production
	Total Swine Beginning Stocks	Total Swine Production
2014	798,311	1,280,041
2015	795,862	1,263,225
2016	785,296	1,248,378
2017	769,192	1,266,199
2018 Oct	755,242	1,291,635
2018 Aor	772,470	1,298,206

However more research is needed to localize sources and particularly to determine if natural gas production is making a higher contribution to changes in methane concentration.

There may be other natural methanogenic sources that need further consideration, but that is another post.