March 2018 Global Mean CH4 up 11.2 ppb over March 2017

NOAA ESRL released its preliminary global mean CH4 on June 5 2018, with an initial reading of 1859.1 ppb. This mean was 11.2 ppb over March 2017. 

This continues the increase in global methane that has been observed globally by NOAA ESRL since 1983. It is almost a 13.4% increase in global mean methane since March, 1984.

This month's 11.2 ppb increase over March 2017, represents the highest rate of increase since December 2015, and if the results remain above a 10 ppb increase in the coming months, as more samples are collected, it will be the first month with an increase above 10 ppb since July 2016.

However, it is the longer trends that demonstrate the accelerating rate of increase of CH4 concentration in the atmosphere.

Since March 2013, global mean CH4 has increased by 46.1 ppb, the highest rate of increase since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the most since May, 1993. It is also the eleventh month of five year comparison increases over 40 ppb, last experienced in 1992-1993.

The ten year increase, since March, 2008 is 73.6 ppb. This is the highest 10 year change since March, 1999. It is obvious from the data and graphic, that methane continues to increase in concentration and reflects increasing global emissions.

Recent research has attributed the methane increases primarily to growth in livestock production and changes in rainfall in the tropics. However, according to the USDA global markets report, there has not been a major increase in livestock (cattle or swine) production since 2014. We have seen significant increases in CH4 concentration during that time.

USDA World Markets
Apr-18
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/livestock_poultry.pdf
Cattle Production
	Total Cattle Beginning Stocks	Total Cattle Production
2014	1,008,403	292,235
2015	979,636	288,195
2016	988,487	288,286
2017	995,342	293,224
2018 Oct	1,004,067	298,335
2018 Aor	1,001,841	296,618
Swine Production
	Total Swine Beginning Stocks	Total Swine Production
2014	798,311	1,280,041
2015	795,862	1,263,225
2016	785,296	1,248,378
2017	769,192	1,266,199
2018 Oct	755,242	1,291,635
2018 Aor	772,470	1,298,206

However more research is needed to localize sources and particularly to determine if natural gas production is making a higher contribution to changes in methane concentration.

There may be other natural methanogenic sources that need further consideration, but that is another post.

March Global Mean CO2 is 408.75 ppm, up 2.71 ppm from 2017

On June 5th, NOAA/ESRL announced the preliminary March 2018 global mean CO2 concentration was 408.75 ppm. This was a concerning increase of 2.71 ppm over 2017.

This rate of increase is of concern, since it is the highest monthly increase over prior year, that seems unrelated to an El Nino, and the highest monthly rate of increase since December, 2016. This CO2 concentration is another marker in the slowly accelerating rise observable in the monthly means since 1980.

The acceleration is less apparent in the annual monthly mean change, than in the five or ten year change in CO2 concentration.

What is noticeable in the annual monthly mean change is that since 2009, there have been more and higher peaks in the trend than in years prior to 2009. The five year change of 12.68 ppm continues the almost unbroken trend of months above a 12 ppm increase since March, 2016. 

Where the increasing acceleration of CO2 concentration is most apparent is the increase over ten years. March 2018 is 22.68 ppm higher than 2008. This is the highest change of any month over one ten years before.

Given reports of annual increases in global anthroprogenic CO2 emissions this year over 2017, we can anticipate these monthly concentrations will continue to rise in year to come.

February Global CO2 Increase of 2.78 ppm Over 2017

On May 6th, NOAA ESRL published the February, 2018 global average carbon dioxide concentration. The average of 408.39 was 2.78 ppm above February, 2017. This is an unusual jump because it seems to be the highest of any non-El Nino impacted year and tied for third highest of any February monthly increase. It will be interesting to see how this is revised when the March 2018 averages are released.

Source: https://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html

This trend of increases is evident in the NOAA ESRL global CO2 concentration as measured since January, 1980.

What is more concerning is that the five year rate of increase has moved up to 12.90 ppm compared to February 2013. The return to increasing five year change rates may indicate rising global CO2 emissions as much as the impact of northern hemisphere winter.

The February decadal change was 22.90 ppm above February 2008. This is the highest global CO2 10 year change of any month in the NOAA ESRL record. If the trend holds, we will move above a 23 ppm change rate sometime this summer. This is not the trend we want to see - or live with.

Source: NOAA ESRL and Apocalyspe4Real

These global CO2 increases become more stark when placed against earlier base concentration averages.

Since 1980, with a base of 338.45 ppm, a 20.42 percent increase.  
Since 1958, with a base of 315.97 ppm a 29.25 percent increase.
Since 1880, with a base of 290.8 ppm, a 40.44 percent increase.
Since 1750, with a base of 278 ppm, a 46.90 percent increase.  

It is quite likely the global CO2 monthly average will move above 409 ppm, but less likely to reach a 410 ppm monthly average in May or June of 2018. But a global monthly average above 410 ppm has high probability of occurring in 2019.

Global CO2 Passes 407.5 ppm For First Time

The NOAA ESRL Global CO2 report for January 2018 was released on April 9th. For the first time in 800,000 years we experienced a CO2 concentration over 407.5 ppm, an increase of 2.48 ppm over January 2017.

Since January 1980, global CO2 concentrations have increased from 338.45 ppm to 407.54 - an increase of over 69 ppm or 20.41%. However, if one uses a pre-industrial ice core based concentration of 278 ppm, then we are living with an atmospheric concentration average increase of more than 46 percent.

We continue to experience an increased rise in the rate of concentration. If one considers the five year change in atmospheric CO2, it has increased by 12.68 ppm, a rate which is slowly increasing both during and after La Nina conditions. 

If one compares the decadal difference, we are 22.56 ppm above January, 2008, and at the highest 10 year rate of increase for any month since January 1980, when NOAA ESRL global CO2 records began.

The trend of rising annual rates of growth remain intact, with NOAA ESRL initially estimating an annual increase of 2.34 ppm for 2017. While this is not a record high, it is another step in the rising base or years of lowest CO2 increases. Here is what is meant if one starts with the Mauna Loa annual concentrations, prior to 1980:

The last year of less than 0.5 ppm increase - 1964.
The last year with less than 1.0 ppm increase - 1992.
The last year with less than a 1.5 ppm increase - 2000.
The last year with less than a 2.0 ppm increase - 2011.

The following graphic depicts this by a polynomial trend, what we hope will soon change its slope.

Another way to consider this CO2 rise is the acceleration in passing through each 10 ppm change of CO2. Given the recent trends of CO2 concentration increase, we will likely pass through 410 ppm for a monthly global average in March or April, 2019. That will be only four years since knifing through 400 ppm.

What we need to begin to carefully consider, is that humanity not only has to reduce human caused emissions, but also will have to offset the incremental climate feedbacks and loss of carbon sinks that are beginning to enhance the effects of human climate change activity.