Global CO2 hits 408.96 ppm in April 2018

On July 5, NOAA ESRL published the preliminary April, 2018 global CO2 results. The world reached 408.96 ppm, up 2.63 ppm over April, 2017. 

This continues the monthly increases above 2 ppm for the fifth month, without a boost often associated with an El Nino. It continues the slow acceleration of atmospheric CO2 concentration buildup.

While April 2017 to 2018 increase was 2.63 ppm, the five and ten year change in CO2 makes the accelerating trends more apparent. 

The 2018 concentration was 12.44 ppm above April 2013, and was the 26th month with an approximate 12 ppm increase. 

The change between 2018 and April 2008, was in increase of 22.67 ppm, supporting the slowly accelerating rate of increase of CO2 concentration. It is the 21st consecutive month with a 10 year change above 22 ppm.

It is likely that April will be the peak global CO2 concentration for this year. However if  trends hold, we are on track to exceed 410 ppm globally between February to April, 2019. That will be the first time in human history the planet will experience a 10 ppm change on CO2 concentration in 48 months - or perhaps less. 

This trend that takes us toward future climate disaster that we want to avoid. 

A continued increase of 10 ppm every 48 months places us on track to double preindustrial CO2 (280 ppm) by 2080. Further increases in emissions may put us on the path of adding 10 ppm every 36 months, which potentially shortens the time to doubling (560 ppm) into the 2060's.

Global CO2 Future Estimates 10 ppm Increases
Year	60 month		Year	48 month		Year	36 month
2015	400		2015	400		2015	400
2020	410		2019	410		2018	410
2025	420		2023	420		2021	420
2030	430		2027	430		2024	430
2035	440		2031	440		2027	440
2040	450		2035	450		2030	450
2045	460		2039	460		2033	460
2050	470		2043	470		2036	470
2055	480		2047	480		2039	480
2060	490		2051	490		2042	490
2065	500		2055	500		2045	500
2070	510		2059	510		2048	510
2075	520		2063	520		2051	520
2080	530		2067	530		2054	530
2085	540		2071	540		2057	540
2090	550		2075	550		2060	550
2095	560		2079	560		2063	560
2100	570		2083	570		2066	570
2105	580		2087	580		2069	580
2110	590		2091	590		2072	590
2115	600		2095	600		2075	600

The world being left to future generations will not be with world we live in today. As Christine LaGarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, stated in Riyadh in October, 2017, "If we do not do anything about climate change now, in fifty years’ time we will be toasted, roasted and grilled.” 

Source: Christine LaGarde,  “Future Investment Initiative,” Day 1, The Big Shift: What New Frameworks are Needed to Understand the Future? Panel Discussion, (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: October 24, 2017),

Super Typhoon Maria: Category 1 to 5 in 24 hours

On July 2, Super Typhoon Maria formed as a tropical depression at 2040 hours. Barely eight hours later, on July 3, 0410 hours Maria became a tropical storm near Guam. For the next 28 hours, Maria slowly strengthened as a tropical storm.

On July 5, 0840, it was like an explosion occurred, for in the space of 30 minutes, Maria spiked from a 53 knot tropical storm to a 72 knot typhoon, equal in strength to a category one hurricane.

Maria only remained at a category one equivalent hurricane strength for nine hours, when her pressure dropped and she blew through a category two to a category three equivalent hurricane in 2 hours, from July 5 1740 to 1950. Typhoon Maria only remained at a category three strength for five hours, when at July 6, 0040 hours, she became a super typhoon with 115 knot sustained winds.

Maria was not done strengthening. She accelerated to 135 knot sustained winds, a category 5 super typhoon by July 6, 0840 hours, in just eight hours. 

So from July 5, 0910 a category 1 to July 6, 0910 a category 5!

Sources:

Tropical Cyclone Scales: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales#Western_Pacific

Super Typhoon Maria Intensification: 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/10W.2dwind.txt

Super Typhoon commentary and updates: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/28799

March 2018 Global Mean CH4 up 11.2 ppb over March 2017

NOAA ESRL released its preliminary global mean CH4 on June 5 2018, with an initial reading of 1859.1 ppb. This mean was 11.2 ppb over March 2017. 

This continues the increase in global methane that has been observed globally by NOAA ESRL since 1983. It is almost a 13.4% increase in global mean methane since March, 1984.

This month's 11.2 ppb increase over March 2017, represents the highest rate of increase since December 2015, and if the results remain above a 10 ppb increase in the coming months, as more samples are collected, it will be the first month with an increase above 10 ppb since July 2016.

However, it is the longer trends that demonstrate the accelerating rate of increase of CH4 concentration in the atmosphere.

Since March 2013, global mean CH4 has increased by 46.1 ppb, the highest rate of increase since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the most since May, 1993. It is also the eleventh month of five year comparison increases over 40 ppb, last experienced in 1992-1993.

The ten year increase, since March, 2008 is 73.6 ppb. This is the highest 10 year change since March, 1999. It is obvious from the data and graphic, that methane continues to increase in concentration and reflects increasing global emissions.

Recent research has attributed the methane increases primarily to growth in livestock production and changes in rainfall in the tropics. However, according to the USDA global markets report, there has not been a major increase in livestock (cattle or swine) production since 2014. We have seen significant increases in CH4 concentration during that time.

USDA World Markets
Apr-18
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/livestock_poultry.pdf
Cattle Production
	Total Cattle Beginning Stocks	Total Cattle Production
2014	1,008,403	292,235
2015	979,636	288,195
2016	988,487	288,286
2017	995,342	293,224
2018 Oct	1,004,067	298,335
2018 Aor	1,001,841	296,618
Swine Production
	Total Swine Beginning Stocks	Total Swine Production
2014	798,311	1,280,041
2015	795,862	1,263,225
2016	785,296	1,248,378
2017	769,192	1,266,199
2018 Oct	755,242	1,291,635
2018 Aor	772,470	1,298,206

However more research is needed to localize sources and particularly to determine if natural gas production is making a higher contribution to changes in methane concentration.

There may be other natural methanogenic sources that need further consideration, but that is another post.

March Global Mean CO2 is 408.75 ppm, up 2.71 ppm from 2017

On June 5th, NOAA/ESRL announced the preliminary March 2018 global mean CO2 concentration was 408.75 ppm. This was a concerning increase of 2.71 ppm over 2017.

This rate of increase is of concern, since it is the highest monthly increase over prior year, that seems unrelated to an El Nino, and the highest monthly rate of increase since December, 2016. This CO2 concentration is another marker in the slowly accelerating rise observable in the monthly means since 1980.

The acceleration is less apparent in the annual monthly mean change, than in the five or ten year change in CO2 concentration.

What is noticeable in the annual monthly mean change is that since 2009, there have been more and higher peaks in the trend than in years prior to 2009. The five year change of 12.68 ppm continues the almost unbroken trend of months above a 12 ppm increase since March, 2016. 

Where the increasing acceleration of CO2 concentration is most apparent is the increase over ten years. March 2018 is 22.68 ppm higher than 2008. This is the highest change of any month over one ten years before.

Given reports of annual increases in global anthroprogenic CO2 emissions this year over 2017, we can anticipate these monthly concentrations will continue to rise in year to come.