Monday, December 8, 2014

Mauna Loa CO2 at 400.46 ppm on December 7, 2014? It's Possible!

The Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) published a preliminary carbon dioxide (CO2) reading go 400.46 ppm this afternoon. If it held, which I do not expect it will, it would be a jump of 2.42 ppm in one day, which is quite unusual.

To illustrate the leap - here is the last year's CO2 cycle. This kind of abrupt change will place us above March, 2014's mean, with room to spare. 

While we might immediately dismiss this as an anomaly, perhaps another perspective may change that perception.

Mauna Loa Observatory sits at 3,397 meters, or 11,145 feet asl. This is a rough equivalent to 650-666 mb of pressure, or layer 83 in the METOP IASI imagery.

Here are four images for comparison:

December 26, 2012, pm: This is the earliest METOP 2 CO2 imagery I've downloaded. Note the global CO2 level on that date was 393 ppm at 650 mb. Also, note almost no area was measured above a concentration of 410 ppm (yellow).

December 7, 2013, pm: Last year's METOP 2 IASI CO2 portrays an increase of 3 ppm at 650 mb on that date - to 396 mb. Also, numerous areas now portray concentrations above 410 ppm, (yellow) especially in the Arctic.

December 7, 2014, pm: Yesterday's MLO CO2 reading of 400.46 ppm is perhaps best understood with this perspective. The METOP 2 IASI CO2 at 650 mb was measured at 398 ppm, an increase of 2 ppm over 2013. While there are high concentrations of CO2 in the Arctic in 2014, similar to the prior year, what is now different are the increased areas of the Antarctic above 410 ppm (yellow).
So what is the METOP 1 IASI readings for December 7, 2014 pm? The satellite image at 650 mb reveals a global mean methane of 400 mb. Areas near Hawaii are above 400 mb. 
Given this, it might be argued that areas around Mauna Loa did experience readings above 400 ppm yesterday. 

If so, it is sobering to speculate what the CO2 concentration highs will be in 2015 - 405? 406? Time will tell - but it is not trending downward.


NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Division:


Sunday, December 7, 2014

November, 2014 Methane Moves up to New Monthly and Annual Mean Highs

Accelerated methane release through summer and fall continue to impact global methane levels for November, 2014 and year to date .

The two METOP satellites carry the IASI instrument which enables global capture of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations by 100 atmospheric levels, divided into 12 hour periods. They help give a broader understanding of the concentrations and distributions of these two greenhouse gases and complement the local specific readings that ground stations provide in the AGAGE, ESRL or WDCGG networks.

Metop IASI 2-A

For November 1-10, mean methane for 2-A averaged 1818.95 ppb, which was 10.57 ppb more than November 1-10, 2013.

November 11-20 saw the average mean methane reach 1816.29 ppb, which was an increase of 8.84 ppb over the same period in 2013.

November 21-30 saw a continuation of that trend, with average mean methane at 1813.35 ppb, or 8.14 ppb higher than November 21-30, 2013.

For the month, the IASI 2-A mean methane averaged 1816.20 ppb or 9.18 ppb over November, 2013. 

The year to date mean methane average moved up to 1808.70, which is 6.77 ppb above 2013's average through November 30th.

Metop IASI 1-B 

The METOP IASI 1-B readings are usually 8-10 ppb higher than those recorded by 2-A. These were not available through the NOAA OSPO until this year, so there is no comparison to 2013.

For November 1-10, mean methane for 1-B averaged 1826.21 ppb.

November 11-20 saw the average mean methane reach 1824.65 ppb.

November 21-30 had an average mean methane at 1821.50 ppb.

For the month, the IASI 1-B mean methane averaged 1824.12 ppb. 

Continuing Increases:

What continues to drive the increases seem to be the following:

Global fires, especially in wetlands.

Oil and natural gas production.

Rainfall or surface melt which triggers methogenic organisms.

In a few short days, I'll have my first data that will track two years of methane collected from the IASI imagery.



Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Arctic Circle Assembly 2014: Wadhams - No September Arctic Sea Ice in 2020 and More

The Arctic Circle Assembly met October 31 to November 2, 2014 in Reykjavik, Iceland. The event enabled three days of meetings and presentations on all things "Arctic." See:

The Alaskan Dispatch reporter summarized 10 key points he felt important - two are shared here:

1. "The Big Thaw Has Only Just Begun. Everywhere scientists gathered here there was talk of feedback loops of one sort or another. Melting permafrost is releasing methane gas, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, to fuel more Arctic warming. Melting sea ice is exposing more ocean to the sun to capture more solar radiation to fuel more Arctic warming. Warming Arctic water is evaporating to form more water vapor, yet another greenhouse gas, to fuel Arctic warming. All of this is now underway."

2. The Arctic Ocean will likely have a sea ice free month by 2020: British physicist Peter Wadhams observed, there seems no natural mechanism for turning the thawing processes off. There seemed a broad consensus that even if there are efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions - the Arctic will continue warming for the foreseeable future. "Wadhams is predicting the end of the polar ice cap by the summer of 2020." Alaskan Dispatch:

Wadhams' comments about his prediction are recorded in a prior Alaskan Dispatch article: 

"No models here," Peter Wadhams, professor of applied mathematics and theoretical physics at the University of Cambridge in England, told the Arctic Circle Assembly on Sunday. "This is data."

Wadhams has access to data not only on the extent of ice covering the Arctic, but on the thickness of that ice. The latter comes from submarines that have been beneath the ice collecting measurements every year since 1979. 

This data shows ice volume "is accelerating downward," Wadhams said. "There doesn't seem to be anything to stop it from going down to zero.

"By 2020, one would expect the summer sea ice to disappear. By summer, we mean September. ... (but) not many years after, the neighboring months would also become ice-free."

Alaskan Dispatch:

So what data is Wadhams using? It seems he is referring to the PIOMAS data, which monitors sea ice volume and thickness in the Arctic. See the Polar Science Center:

The analysis of the data trends does point to the potential for an "ice free" month in 2020, as demonstrated by PIOMAS projections by Wipenus. The first graphic is the September Sea Ice projection based upon several statistical trend models:

Even with factoring in the bounce in September sea ice volume in Sept 2014, the statistical fits project an ice free September by 2019-2020.

The statistical trending by month reveals that other months are not far behind, and may be "ice free" by 2020 as well:

The problem is, we are not sure what impacts a sea ice free month will have on global climate, but if it does heat the Arctic Ocean in areas of sea bed methane, from the Kara to the ESS, then an acceleration of methane may not be far behind.

Another session included Igor Semiletov, and dealt with Arctic methane issues. Unfortunately, we will have to wait to hear more on his comments.

The NSIDC October Sea Ice report is out, and with October Arctic sea ice confirmed to be the sixth lowest on record - sustaining a 6.9% decline per decade since 1979.



Saturday, November 1, 2014

Global Mean Methane Moves Up Substantially: 2014 Year to Date IASI Mean Methane by Dekade and Month


During January to October 2014, global mean methane, as reported by the EUMETSAT METOP IASI instrument, jumped significantly above last year's readings. Global mean methane year to date, as measured by IASI through October, 2014 climbed to 1807.80 ppb or 6.38 ppb above 2013. 

The primary causes for these increases seem to be accelerated permafrost melt, some additional methane release in Arctic Ocean, forest fires in peat areas/wetlands in Canada and Russia, rice production in South Asia, palm oil production in Southeast Asia and oil and natural gas production in Africa and the Middle East. There are some areas of low altitude concentrations or surface flares at this point that are consistently apparent in the METOP/IASI imagery, that reach levels above 1950 ppb.

METOP 1-B and 2-A Description

There are two METOP satellites with the IASI methane measuring instrument currently in orbit. METOP 2, the second satellite in the production series, was actually launched first and is designated "A". The first satellite, METOP 1, was launched second and designated "B". Source:

To help keep their identity's straight, I have combined the two names as METOP 1-B and 2-A to help delineate their data and imagery. The METOP 2-A imagery was first made available through the NASA OSPO in 2012, as far as I am aware. METOP 1-B imagery was first made available through the OSPO on April 5, 2014, while the METOP 2-A satellite imagery was unavailable.

METOP 1-B vs 2-A IASI Methane Reading Comparison Variability

The methane readings of the METOP 1-B IASI instrument are generally 8-12 ppb higher than those of METOP 2-A. I am not sure why this is so, but presume that the METOP 1-B instrument readings may be more sensitive, or were originally calibrated differently. I hope someone who knows why will share with us. Both records are valuable in demonstrating trends in global mean methane.

Comparing IASI Mean Methane vs WMO, WDCGG, ESRL, AGAGE, etc.

The METOP IASI imagery provides a truly global perspective - advantageous to those interested in tracking methane. WMO, ESRL, AGAGE and individual stations collecting methane data are useful and repected for the following advantages:

1. They have collected CO2 and CH4 measurements for many years, providing a longer term trend than satellite data/imagery.
2. They are generally always available to track those measurements through time for specific locations.
3. They are able to measure CO2 and CH4 in a variety of weather conditions, including cloudiness, and temperature variability which can interfere with the IASI data collection and imagery.

However the WMO, ESRL, AGAGE and other agencies have some disadvantages.

1. The readings are for only a few specific locations, usually at the earth's surface.
2. Their readings do not extend into the atmosphere - in other words, methane concentrations any major distance above the surface are not measured.
3. Given the gaps in the network's global coverage, we have had to extrapolate what the global mean methane is based upon the stations in the network. Because areas not covered by the network may have lower methane readings, for example, then the global mean based upon the stations might be higher or lower than a more extensive network might report.

The advantages of METOP IASI data/imagery is that it is truly global, and provides 100 potential layers of methane measurement across the entire glove. This larger statistical sampling provides a better basis for measuring global mean methane.

One additonal advantage is that it is available almost real time, something not available from the ground based stations, except for CO2 from Mauna Loa as provided by Scripps and ESRL. However, this regrettably does not include daily CH4 readings.

The drawback is the since areas with cloudiness, or gaps in satellite coverage happen daily, the IASI data and imagery is still a sampling.

What will be closer to the ideal is if the the satelitte and earth based GHG measurement community comes to the point of merging the sources, then we will have a more robust and complete data set.

IASI Average Median Methane Collection and Trends

The following is the average mean methane readings summary by 10 day period (dekadal) and monthly from January 1 to October 31, 2014, for the METOP 2-A satellite, in comparison to 2013 as available.

What is being measured is the highest mean methane readings for each 12 hour period for each day's imagery and data as available. Given the nature of methane concentration, the altitude or millibar level for those highest means change throughout the year. Here is one image to illustrate what is being used from the OSPO. 

The highest global mean recorded by METOP 2-A IASI for a 12 hour period this year was 1829 ppb.

January, 2014

January is the next to lowest methane concentration month, and the monthly mean was 1 ppb above January, 2013.
Dekadal PPB Month PPB Average Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Jan 1-10, 2014 1793.35
Jan 11-20, 2014 1793.90
Jan 21-31, 2014 1792.76 1793.34 1.00

February, 2014

February's mean was the lowest in 2014 as it was in 2013. The methane mean difference between the year's was negligible at .13 ppb.

Dekadal PPB Month PPB Average Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Feb 1-10, 2014 1791.45
Feb 11-20, 2014 1790.86
Feb 21-28, 2014 1793.33 1791.88 0.13

March, 2014

The March methane mean collection was incomplete due to a METOP satellite anomaly which took it off line for about a month, beginning March 27, 2014. What follows is calculated upon the available imagery.

Dekadal PPB Month PPB Average Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Mar 1-10, 2014 1794.60
Mar 11-20, 2014 1796.35
Mar 21-26, 2014 1799.75 1796.90 0.35

The year to date mean methane was 1794.04 ppb, which was .49 ppb above January to March, 2013.

April, 2014

The METOP 2-A satellite was off-line for all of April, 2014 while its problem was analysed. No mean methane imagery was available through the OSPO.

May, 2014

METOP IASI became available again on May 20, 2014. The following monthly mean reflects imagery readings for the last 10 days of the month. It results in a reading 2.68 ppb above May, 2013, which is likely too high given the data gap.

Dekadal PPB Month PPB Average Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
May 1-10, 2014 NA NA
May 11-20, 2014 NA NA
May 21-31, 2014 1799.50 1799.50 2.68

June, 2014

June, 2014 sees a significant increase in methane over the prior year, of 3.84 ppb. The difference may be linked to heatwaves and increased fires in Siberia and Canada.

Dekadal PPB Month PPB Average Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Jun 1-10, 2014 1799.27
Jun 11-20, 2014 1801.14
Jun 21-30, 2014 1802.44 1800.95 3.84

However, global mean methane to date through June 30, was only 1796.05 and only .41 ppb higher than 2013. At this point it seemed that 2014 and 2013 would not exhibit much of an increase in mean methane, but the next three months changed that perspective.

July, 2014

July witnessed an explosion of heat, drought and fire which accelerated methane release in July, 2014. The month average ended up 7.44 ppb above 2013. 

Dekadal PPB Month PPB Average Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Jul 1-10, 2014 1805.60
Jul 11-20, 2014 1812.90
Jul 21-31, 2014 1816.95 1811.82 7.44

Global mean methane for January through July, 2014 was 1799.01 ppb an increase to 2.12 ppb above the 2013 mean.

August, 2014

August witnessed the continued increase of fires, heat and drought which boosted global methane even more quickly. 
Dekadal PPB Month PPB Average Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Aug 1-10, 2014 1820.15
Aug 11-20, 2014 1821.55
Aug 21-31, 2014 1824.86 1822.19 8.07

The global mean methane year to date through August was 1802.67 or 3.63 ppb above 2013.

September, 2014

The major increase of global methane in September was troubling, but understandable as the same factors which impacted August's global mean methane continued. It is also possible that the warmer ocean water may have also influenced this increase in July through September. The last dekade of September had methane readings 15.45 ppb above 2013.

Dekadal PPB Month PPB Average Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Sept 1-10, 2014 1827.14
Sept 11-20, 2014 1825.46
Sept 21-30 2014 1825.90 1826.17 14.12

The global mean methane year to date through September 2014 was 1805.87 or 5.39 ppb above 2013, YTD.

October, 2014

This past month has witnessed continued elevated global mean methane due to global heat and increased methane in the northern hemisphere. It is clear that this increase may sustain through winter as darkness and temperatures fall in the northern hemisphere. 

Dekadal PPB Month PPB Average Month 2014 vs 2013 PPB
Oct 1-10, 2014 1823.37
Oct 11-20, 2014 1822.33
Oct 21-31, 2014 1820.14 1821.95 12.14

Global mean methane year to date through October, 2014 climbed to 1807.80 ppb or 6.38 ppb above 2013. 

What the rest of this year brings remains to be seen, but one thing is clear - methane continues its climb with serious implications for global warming.

Further reports will be created on a monthly basis.



Personal database of METOP/IASI imagery

Methane Spikes - Lot's of Hype, No Long Term Impact

Methane spikes like the 2666 ppb recorded on October 26, 2014 by METOP 2-A during its 0-12 hr orbits, are exciting and create anxiety ("dragon's breath"), but in reality - they are transitory. In other words these spikes do not last, given wind changes, temperature variation and air mass and frontal boundary movement. 

While some claim the spike occurred in the Laptev or ESS, we do not have location data from the image to confirm that - it is a presumption. If those making the claims had the actual location data to support the assumption it will be helpful. Even if the spike is located over the Laptev/ESS, the 586 mb layer with the spike is not on the surface, but approximately 14,400 feet or 4,400 meters above the surface in a constantly moving airmass. A review of the earlier Methane Tracker imagery through time clearly illustrates that fact.

Another option is that the methane spike may have been associated with a cold air mass over Russia on October 25-28 with record low temps. Here are the October 25 and 27 Climate Reanalyzer images to illustrate the cold temp anomaly, that matched with a center of circulation visible in the cloud pattern in the IASI imagery that follows:

To illustrate the transitory nature of the spike, here are four days (October 25-28, 2014) of the METOP 2-A IASI imagery for 586 mb. Note the highest range PPB reading variation for this altitude (in the "Range" section of each image) to illustrate the changes in concentration - given the dynamics discussed above.

Here is the 415 ppb "spike" image from October 25 pm to October 26 am, as displayed elsewhere - without context. Note the swirl of circulation over Siberia, which would potentially concentrate CH4 for this spike reading.
Note the following 12 hours experience a 317 ppb drop. 

Here are the October 27, 2014 images. The highest CH4 readings at 586 mb are still in the 2300's ppb.

Here are the October 28, 2014 images, and note that the highest ppb are back in the 2200's.

If one collects these images on a daily basis, you will see ongoing daily, dekadal and monthly variation and spikes at any mb level in the IASI readings.

What is far more meaningful - and concerning - are the changes in mean methane readings. In other words, the mean or average annual increase and variance of this year over 2013 and prior years on a dekadal, monthly and annual basis. The global mean methane measure in each of the images above provides a better understanding of global methane concentration change - as collected through time. The post that compares global mean methane readings for 2014 to 2013 to October 31st follows.



Climate Reanalyzer:

Sunday, September 21, 2014

SWERUS C-3: Second Methane Release Saturates East Siberian Sea to 3188 ppb

The SWERUS C-3 first leg found a second major methane seep on August 3, 2014 in the East Siberian Sea. Julia Steinbach, a member of the expedition, blogged this find on August 4th, 2014.

SWERUS C-3 August 4, 2014 blog spot.
She notes: 

"At one station, we really manage to catch signals from a flare with all sampling devices more or less at the same time. In general, we managed to characterize a small source region with high methane levels and quite some bubble flares – and in the 5 days prior to arriving at the source region, we have been seeing continuously rising methane levels in the surface and midwater – not so much in the bottom, so this seemed to be the signal transported from the source region." 

What we learn from this is that a methane release area can increase methane saturation in the water over a considerable area, while most might break down in the ocean, as saturation gets higher, or as more gets trapped under sea ice, it is possible that more atmospheric release might occur.

WEGAS - Continuous methane measurement in sea water.

In addition to regular sampling, the Oden carried a new instrument which enabled real time methane measurement by pumping sea water into the instruments. Julia comments:

"The other “methane” hero I want to mention today is Marc. You have read in earlier posts – both by me and also by some others – about the continuous methane measurements from the seawater intake, and Marc is the one running (and having developed) this system that is very useful to guide us to good spot for sampling and to enhance the spatial resolution of our measurement in between stations..."

"For most people on the ship, Marc’s system (the "WEGAS", standing for "Water Equilibration Gas Analyzer System") looks like that: That is the view of the “methane webcam“ on the bridge showing the results of the online measurement – basically just a normal camera pointing at his screen, filming the part of it that shows the actual methane concentration in the seawater."

The screen capture grabbed my attention: 

While sea floor CH4 source levels might be higher in saturation, this water column reading is well above what one finds in atmospheric concentrations. 

To convert from ppm to ppb, which is the regular atomspheric measure, add three more zeros and assume that the comma is the US decimal.

The reading is 3,188 ppb.

Source: Julia Steinbach's SWERUS C-3 Blog

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

SWERUS C-3: More Arctic Methane Found - and Something Worse

The SWERUS-C3/Oden course, with Bennett Island and presumed area of CO2 release marked.

A thorough read through the numerous SWERUS-C3 blog posts since the major methane flare find will reveal snippets of more methane discovered, there are mentions of finding some methane release in anticipated areas expected and GoFlo sampling where the saturation was high enough. However, it does not seem another major hot spot has yet been found, given the struggle with ice, and lower water temperatures, including at the sea bottom in the East Siberian Sea (ESS). You can read the expedition blogs at:

While my primary interest is Arctic methane sources and release, something far more troubling has been found. Here is the "norm" and then the trouble.

The Arctic Ocean: A CO2 Sink

Generally, the cold ice-bound Arctic Ocean is viewed as a carbon sink, the water absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere, with its acidity increasing through time. That is a real concern for sea life, and generally been presumed a way that CO2 would be transferred from the atmosphere and slow warming. This process was documented in research across the Arctic Ocean and was the topic of a conference in May, 2013.

An AFP article stated the following:

"Acidity levels in the planet’s oceans have risen by 30 percent since the start of the 
industrial era, and are now at their highest levels in at least 55 million years, delegates
said at a conference in Bergen, Norway dedicated to the subject.

The Arctic Ocean is more vulnerable than other oceans because its cold waters absorb more carbon dioxide. It is also fed by fresh water from rivers and melting ice, which makes it less able chemically to neutralize the acidification effects of the carbon dioxide.
Furthermore, the increase in melting ice exposes greater expanses of water, which leads to greater absorption.

In the Iceland and Barents seas, pH levels have decreased by around 0.02 per decade since the end of the 1960s.

Even if carbon dioxide emissions were to be brought to a halt today, it would take tens of thousands of years for the oceans to return to the acidity levels they had before the industrial era began two centuries ago, according to Norwegian researcher Richard Bellerby, the main author of a scientific study on the subject."

Source: Scientists sound alarm at Arctic Ocean's rapid acidification, Agence France Presse, Monday 6 May 2013,

See also: "The Arctic Ocean marine carbon cycle: evaluation of air-sea CO2
exchanges, ocean acidification impacts and potential feedbacks", Biogeosciences, November 5, 2009.

The Arctic Ocean: CO2 Sink - and Source

However, a study by MIT gave a more refined perspective of the Arctic Ocean as carbon sink, and ever increasing acidificatio.  

What their research revealed was that during 2005 through 2007, and continuing in areas like the Barents Sea, as ocean water warmed, it began to absorb less CO2 - and then began to release it. 

The paper by Stephanie Dutkiewicz and co-authors Mick Follows and Christopher Hill of MIT, Manfredi Manizza of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, and Dimitris Menemenlis of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, published in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles. demonstrated this finding. 

"Manizza found a discrepancy between 2005 and 2007, the most severe periods of sea ice shrinkage (at that time). While the Arctic lost more ice cover in 2007 than in 2005, less carbon was taken up by the ocean in 2007 -- an unexpected finding, in light of the theory that less sea ice leads to more carbon stored.

"Manizza traced the discrepancy to the Greenland and Barents seas, regions of the Arctic Ocean that take in warmer waters from the Atlantic. (In warmer environments, carbon is less soluble in seawater.) Manizza observed this scenario in the Barents Sea in 2007, when warmer temperatures caused more carbon dioxide to be released than stored."

The Arctic Ocean: An Increasing CO2 Source?

While Manizza discovered that warmer water in the Barents Sea led to release of CO2 - the Arctic Ocean becoming a source of emissions, this has not been recognized, or accepted by other scholars who assume that the additional open ocean will increase the ability of the Arctic Ocean to absorb CO2, and increasing acidity over time.

However, there seems to be some data that might illustrate the Arctic potential as a CO2 source may be increasing. For example, during June through September, 2013 O-Buoy #7 recorded CO2 of almost 480 ppm. the following is the CO2 readings from June 3 to July 3, 2013.
Here is the longer trend - about 6 months of data with readings above 400 ppm well into September, 2013. 

The Arctic Ocean: An Increasing CO2 Source: SWERUS-C3

Finally, we return to SWERUS-C3 expedition. Professor Leif Anderson, a marine chemist at the University of Gothenburg submitted the following on his blog on July 28, 2014. While he comments on the methane release he notes the fact that the Laptev Sea is acting as a CO2 source, and that thawing permafrost on the shallow sea floor was the cause. The map above will help give a visual for what follows, (caution: auto-translation to English):

"With five stations on two days there was a total of approximately 100 samples that we analyzed in order to evaluate the water masses flowing along the slope between the shallow Laptev Sea and the deep basin. When this work was finished, we sailed towards the east during the time that we stopped a few times for stations at about 50 meters depth." (the area circled above)

"Now begins the interesting things happen with the chemistry. The oxygen concentration becomes low, near the ground (sea floor), a clear signal to the decomposition of organic materials. This also means that the carbon dioxide concentration is high. The most surprising is that the carbon dioxide concentration is also high in the surface water, so high that it is above the equilibrium level of the atmosphere. Thus carbon dioxide is leaking out of the sea in this area. Normally the sea under-saturated during the summer when växtpankton (plankton) bloom. The reason that it is over saturated is probably due to the supply of organic matter from land that is broken down to a greater extent than the phytoplankton bloom. This was something we observed during an expedition to the sea in 2008, but in areas closer to shore than where we are now."


What makes this intriguing - and troubling, is that the charted path of SWERUS_C3 is no where near land, this is not likely decaying debris washed out to sea. the course seems to be what is thawing on or under the sea floor itself.

While we have concerns about CH4 leaking from the East Siberian and Laptev shelves, we may have to also contend with the longer term impacts of increased CO2 release. A glance at the Metop 1-B July 27 and 28, 2014, 0-12 hours imagery provides a hint of the increased carbon dioxide readings in the Arctic Ocean when this report was prepared by Dr. Anderson. By displaying images for 972 mb, we are portraying CO2 concentrations close to the sea surface.
Source: NOAA/OSPO IASI imagery:

Monday, August 4, 2014

Preliminary July, 2014 Mauna Loa Monthly CO2 Up Approximately 1.80 ppm over July, 2013

Mauna Loa CO2 continues its climb compared to last year. Preliminary estimates for July, 2014 compared to July, 2013 and their variance from 2013 are:

Jul-14 Jul-13 Variance 2014 vs 2013
NOAA/ESRL 399.00 397.20 1.80
Scripps 398.99 397.28 1.71

At first glance, this seems a major drop from the readings over 401 ppm for the last three months. However a different perspective - the global IASI imagery - reveals that global CO2 remains over 400 ppm in many areas.

To illustrate, here is the July 31, 2014 Metop 1-B 12-24 hrs image for 972 mb. 

Areas in purple to pink are 400-410 ppm. 
Areas in yellow are over 420 ppm. 

NOAA/OSPO does not provide the actual high readings for each cell. Note that global mean for this time and altitude is 402 ppm, significantly above the monthly averages noted above, or the preliminary 397.63 ppm reported by NOAA/ESRL for Mauna Loa on July 31st, 2014

NOAA/ESRL and Scripps Monthly data:
Daily Scripps: