Up in Smoke: US Fire Acreage a Record Smashing 10.1 million Acres

The US National Interagency Fire Center just updated its annual totals for fires and acres burned for 2015. As of December 30, the total fires were 68,151 which consumed 10,125,149 acres . This new record is 251,404 acres more than the prior set in 2006. 

Source: National Interagency Fire Center: http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm

For comparison, the 2015 fire area burned almost equals Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island combined, or an area larger than Switzerland.

Most acres burned in Alaska, a total of 5,146,541 acres or almost 51% of those reported. A Nasa image from September 1, 2015 reveals the scars.

The trend for increasing acreage torched is even more pronounced from 1,323,666 in 1983 to 10,125,149 in 2015 - a 764% increase in 32 years.

So what does this mean?

It means we have experienced millions of tons of black carbon or soot, CO2 and methane being released into the atmosphere from US fires alone, which added to the acceleration of warming in the near and distant future. 

We have experienced more forest and tundra being changed from carbon sinks into sources for green house gases. 

More permafrost is being exposed to warming in future years as peat rich soils are scorched away. The Alaskan fires are becoming more severe. A 2011 article, “Recent Acceleration of Biomass Burning and Carbon Losses in Alaskan Forests and Peatlands” in Nature Geoscience, stated the implications well.

“Soil carbon losses will increase dramatically if warming continues to affect the thawing of permafrost, exposing deeper carbon pools to rapid loss through burning,” they wrote. “In turn, deeper burning events are likely to further accelerate permafrost degradation, potentially triggering a positive feedback between permafrost thaw and severe fire activity.  Such feedback has significant implications for greenhouse gas emissions in northern regions.” Source: Frequent, Severe Fires Turn Alaskan Forests into a Carbon Production Line, http://www.mtu.edu/news/stories/2011/february/frequent-severe-fires-turn-alaskan-forests-into-carbon-production-line.html

This is only part of the global forest fires trend of adding to the natural sourced increases in CO2 and CH4 release. See: Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013, Nature Communications, July 14, 2015: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150714/ncomms8537/full/ncomms8537.html#f2

Sources:

National Interagency Fire Center: http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm

Alaska Interagency Coordination Center - Alaska Acres Burned: http://fire.ak.blm.gov/content/aicc/sitreport/current.pdf

US State sizes in acres: http://www.statemaster.com/graph/geo_lan_acr_tot-geography-land-acreage-total

Country Sizes in Sq Km: http://world.bymap.org/LandArea.html

Data:

Total Wildland Fires and Acres (1960-2015)
Figures prior to 1983 may be revised as NICC verifies historical data.
Year	Fires	Acres
2015	68,151	10,125,149
2014	63,312	3,595,613
2013	47,579	4,319,546
2012	67,774	9,326,238
2011	74,126	8,711,367
2010	71,971	3,422,724
2009	78,792	5,921,786
2008	78,979	5,292,468
2007	85,705	9,328,045
2006	96,385	9,873,745
2005	66,753	8,689,389
2004	65,461	*8,097,880
2003	63,629	3,960,842
2002	73,457	7,184,712
2001	84,079	3,570,911
2000	92,250	7,393,493
1999	92,487	5,626,093
1998	81,043	1,329,704
1997	66,196	2,856,959
1996	96,363	6,065,998
1995	82,234	1,840,546
1994	79,107	4,073,579
1993	58,810	1,797,574
1992	87,394	2,069,929
1991	75,754	2,953,578
1990	66,481	4,621,621
1989	48,949	1,827,310
1988	72,750	5,009,290
1987	71,300	2,447,296
1986	85,907	2,719,162
1985	82,591	2,896,147
1984	20,493	1,148,409
1983	18,229	1,323,666

Atmospheric Methane Spike to 2745 ppb at 586 mb

On January 2, 2016, 12-24 hrs, the METOP 2-A satellite reported a methane spike of 2745 ppb at 586 mb - approximately 14,385 feet or 4,834 meters. This is the second highest spike I've seen in the OSPO Metop IASI imagery since December, 2012.

Source: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/index.html

While it is tempting to speculate where this spike occurred, in reality the image only narrows a location to an area colored in pink, which are above readings 1950 ppb. It is not anticipated that the spike represents anything more than a momentary concentration. These usually dissipate within in 24 hours. 

The highest methane concentration recorded by the METOP IASI instrument as depicted in the OSPO imagery occurred on April 25, 2015, 0-12 hr at 586 mb and registered 2845 ppb at 586 mb. 
Source: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi/index.html

Far more troubling is not the momentary blips in methane readings, but the major jump in global mean methane that has occurred in the last two years.

More on that in an upcoming post.

Up in Smoke: US Sets New Record for Forest Fire Acres Torched

Photo: AP, http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/02/09/evacuations-remain-after-wildfire-chars-california-towns.html

In its December 25, 2015 report, the National Interagency (Fire) Coordination Center released its near year end totals of forest fires and acres burned in the United States. The sobering result is another year above 9 million acres, a total only breached three other years, 2006, 2007 and 2012. It is also just shy of the very troubling 10 million acre mark.

Most acres burned in Alaska, a total of 5,146,541 acres or almost 52% of those reported.

Compared to the 10 year averages to date, 2015's total of 60,984 fires were far less than the 2005-2014 average of 72,080. However, 2015's 9,937,863 acres consumed are 45% higher than the 2005-2014 average of 6,853,450 acres. This is larger than the states of New Hampshire, Connecticut and Rhode Island combined. 

If you step back to a decadal scale, the result is even more worrisome. The 2006-2015 YTD total acres burned is 69,729,395 acres, an area larger than Colorado and just shy of Nevada. It is also the most acres burned in any prior decade in the US fire record.

The trend from 1983 to 2015 depicts a troubling rise in acres burned from about 2 million in 1983 to almost 8 million this year.

Source: NIFC

The data supports the modeled conclusion that the US will experience increasingly fierce and longer fire seasons forecast for the future. Recent modeling reveals that the US may experience a sixfold increase in large forest fires by 2050.

If one thinks this is not possible, then it is helpful to recall that the 1983-2015 difference is a 750% increase in fire acreage.

See: Risk of very large fires could increase sixfold by mid-century in the US, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/risk-very-large-fires-could-increase-sixfold-mid-century-us

Impacts on greenhouse gases and soot are still to be modeled, but when considered in combination with fires and acres burned in Canada, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and Central Africa, this year's global fires have made a major contribution to the massive increase in atmospheric methane. More on that later.

NIFC data for prior chart:

Year	Fires	Acres
1983	18,229	1,323,666
1984	20,493	1,148,409
1985	82,591	2,896,147
1986	85,907	2,719,162
1987	71,300	2,447,296
1988	72,750	5,009,290
1989	48,949	1,827,310
1990	66,481	4,621,621
1991	75,754	2,953,578
1992	87,394	2,069,929
1993	58,810	1,797,574
1994	79,107	4,073,579
1995	82,234	1,840,546
1996	96,363	6,065,998
1997	66,196	2,856,959
1998	81,043	1,329,704
1999	92,487	5,626,093
2000	92,250	7,393,493
2001	84,079	3,570,911
2002	73,457	7,184,712
2003	63,629	3,960,842
2004	65,461	8,097,880
2005	66,753	8,689,389
2006	96,385	9,873,745
2007	85,705	9,328,045
2008	78,979	5,292,468
2009	78,792	5,921,786
2010	71,971	3,422,724
2011	74,126	8,711,367
2012	67,774	9,326,238
2013	47,579	4,319,546
2014	63,312	3,595,613
2015 YTD	60,984	9,937,863

Sources:

National Interagency Fire Center, December 25, 2015: http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/sitreprt.pdf

National Interagency Fire Center - Annual Total Fires and Acres Burned: 
http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html

Alaska Interagency Coordination Center - Alaska Acres Burned: http://fire.ak.blm.gov/content/aicc/sitreport/current.pdf

US State sizes in acres: http://www.statemaster.com/graph/geo_lan_acr_tot-geography-land-acreage-total

Future Forest Fire Increases: Barbero, R.; Abatzoglou, J.T.; Larkin, N.K.; Kolden, C.A.; Stocks, B. 2015. Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire.

Global Mean Atmospheric Methane Breaks Above Highest 2014 Reading

METOP IASI 2-A: An all time high global mean methane.

During July 8, 2015, 12-24 hrs, global mean atmospheric methane measured 1830 ppb at 469 mb. This is higher than the 1829 ppb reached on September 4-5, 2014 at the same atmospheric level as measured by the METOP 2-A satellite. (OSPO has changed the color scheme - the numbers tell the story).

What is very troubling is that the July 8, 2015 reading is 23 ppbv above July 8, 2014  and 30 ppbv above July 8, 2013 

METOP IASI 1-B: Not available for comparison.

Unfortunately, the METOP 1-B IASI instrument has not been available since April, 24, 2015, so we have no comparative readings at this time. 

During 2014, the METOP 1-B satellite measured mean atmospheric methane as high as 1839 ppb on August, 25 and 28 and September 5 and 7 in 2014. (OSPO changed the color scheme in the last year).

Major factors contributing to the accelerating increase in atmospheric methane so early this year seem to be extraordinary burning of tundra, increased heating in the Arctic contributing to methane release, and also ocean heating which may also be contributing to methane production globally.

This latest high is one indicator that methane readings in 2014 and 2015 have begun a major abrupt spike from the trend of the last decade.

More on that in another post.