Wednesday, July 13, 2016

All Time High Heat for Alaska Arctic Coast & Cold Storms Coming

UPDATE: Deadhorse, AK just hit 85 F, at about 6:50 pm, July 13, 2016.

Elev 59 ft 70.19 °N148.47 °W | Updated 15 min ago


Brian Brettschneider just posted an ERSI image of what he says is the warmest high temperature for the Alaska Arctic Coast - 84F at Deadhorse this afternoon. He says, "The new all-time record of 84°F at Deadhorse is also an AK record for any station within 50 miles of Arctic Ocean."


However, this is not the only 80+F temp on the coast this afternoon, or even a high of 84F. Brian posted an earlier shot with 84F at Alpine, AK which reached that temp at 3:45 pm this afternoon, followed by Deadhorse at 4:53 pm. Source: https://www.wunderground.com/us/ak/alpine-airstrip and https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:99734.12.99999

What's crazy is that it is warmer there than in some Florida locations this afternoon and 3F warmer than my mid-America location!

It's what is coming that shows how out of balance the Arctic is right now. A strong cold front is to cross the coast near Wainwright and Barrow by Friday. The Barrow, AK statement reads:

"NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1200 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

AKZ201-202-152000-
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE...
BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK
1200 PM AKDT WED JUL 13 2016

...SEA ICE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST
FRIDAY MORNING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. 20 TO 30 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 MPH BEFORE BECOMING WEST AND
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 MPH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING FRIDAY.

AT THIS TIME MINOR COASTAL EROSION AND ELEVATED SURF IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF WAINWRIGHT TO
NEAR POINT BARROW BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ANYONE OPERATING IN THE WATERS NEAR THE
COAST ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF WAINWRIGHT TO NEAR POINT BARROW
MAY FIND ICE CLOSING IN QUICKLY TOWARD THE SHORE FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THOSE WITH BOATS...EQUIPMENT OR OTHER PERSONAL ITEMS LOCATED NEAR
THE BEACH MAY CONSIDER MOVING THEM FURTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM
THE WATERS EDGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS AND TIMING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AFG/ AND THE LATEST SEA ICE
INFORMATION AT THE NWS ALASKA SEA ICE PROGRAM WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW/WEATHER.GOV/AFC/ICE.


Now think about the impact on the thinning Arctic sea ice. It is going to experience an area expansion due to 20-25 mph winds, with seas high enough to call for a small craft advisory, 
all with sea surface temperatures well above normal. 

Areas in white represent sea ice presence, but with thin concentration.
Sea surface temperature anomalies: Coral Reef Watch, July 13 2016
Land surface temperature anomalies: Climate Reanalyzer, July 13 2016

 Arctic Sea Ice Concentration: 

While there will be a "cold front", the impact on the ice will likely be a higher melt rate in the weeks to come.

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